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"Climatic changes Cyprus."
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Recent changes in the rain regime over the Mediterranean climate region of Israel
Previous observational analyses have shown a declining rainfall trend over Israel, mostly statistically insignificant. The current study, for the period 1975–2020, undermines these findings, and the alarming future projections, and elaborates other ingredients of the rain regime. No trend is found for the annual rainfall, reflecting a balance between a negative trend in the number of rainy days and a positive trend in the daily rainfall intensity, both on the order of 2.0%/decade. In the mid-winter, the rainfall and the daily intensity increased, while both declined in the autumn and spring, implying a contraction of the rainy season. The time span between accumulation of 10% and 90% of the annual rainfall, being 112 days on the average, shortened by 7 days during the study period. This is also expressed by an increase of the Seasonality Index, indicating that the regional climate is shifting from “markedly seasonal with a long dry season” to “most rain in ≤3 months.” The intra-seasonal course of the rainfall trend corresponds to that of the occurrence and intensity of the Cyprus Lows and the Mediterranean Oscillation. The contraction of the rainy season and the increase in the daily intensity have far-reaching environmental impacts in this vulnerable region.
Journal Article
The rural landscapes of archaic Cyprus : an archaeology of environmental and social change
\"Using various archaeological, environmental, and historical data, this book argues that changes in landscapes, climate, and rural practices were instrumental to Iron Age political formations on Cyprus. It offers new insights into landscape archaeologies and contributes to current debates about society's relationships with changing environments\"-- Provided by publisher.
Book
Mapping the vulnerability of European summer tourism under 2 °C global warming
Summer tourism is one of the most important contributors to the European GDP especially for the southern countries and is highly dependent on the climatic conditions. Changes in average climatic conditions, along with the potential subsequent changes in the physical environment, will pose stress on the favorability of the climate of European destinations for tourism and recreational activities. Here, we study the vulnerability of summer-oriented tourism due to a global temperature increase by 2 °C relative to the preindustrial era. We use a well-defined framework of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity indicators for a set of plausible climate (RCPs) and socioeconomic (SSPs) combinations. Our result shows that a 2 °C global warming will pose substantial changes to the vulnerability of the European tourism sector. Despite the general increase in exposure, the vulnerability of summer tourism is highly depended on the socioeconomic developments (SSPs). Although exposure is higher for most of the popular southern European destinations like Spain, France, South Italy, southernmost Greece, and Cyprus, they are expected to be less vulnerable than others, under specific SSPs, due to their higher capacity to adapt to a different climate. The capacity to adapt is lower for higher emission scenarios. Substantial changes are also apparent at the subnational level. Countries like France are foreseen to experience very diverse impacts and vulnerabilities within their own territories that will have consequences in terms of domestic tourism. The dynamics of these changes are expected to alter the state of the current European tourism regime.
Journal Article
Trends in rainfall regime over Israel, 1975–2010, and their relationship to large-scale variability
Variations and trends in the rain regime of Israel are analyzed for 1975–2010, when persistent global warming has been observed. Negative trend is observed over the majority of Israel, statistically significant only in the super-arid region. The decrease is significant over the majority of Israel only in the spring, reflecting a shortening of the rainy season, >3 days/decade. The dry spells are becoming longer, significantly in most of the stations. The factors affecting these variations, synoptic systems, large-scale oscillations and global temperature, were studied for extended period, 1953–2010. A simple multiple stepwise regression model applied for the inter-annual rainfall variations indicates that the occurrence of Cyprus lows is the dominant factor and the Mediterranean oscillation index, MOI2, is also a significant factor. In order to reduce the inter-annual noise and reveal inter-decadal variations, the time-series of the rainfall and its potential predictors were smoothed by 11-year window, showing an increase toward the 1990s, followed by a decrease, at a higher rate, onward. Correspondingly, the aridity lines propagated southward till the mid-1990s and then withdrew back, at a larger rate. The large-scale oscillations and the global temperature explain 83 % of the variance on the inter-decadal time-scale, half of it explained by the global temperature alone. The findings of this study support the expected poleward expansion of the Hadley cell due to global warming.
Journal Article
Water Reuse—Analysis of the Possibility of Using Reclaimed Water Depending on the Quality Class in the European Countries
In 2020, the European Commission (EC) defined a legal requirement for water reuse for agricultural purposes in the European Union (EU). EU Regulation (2020/741) on minimum requirements for water reuse should mobilize member states to implement solutions for the use of reclaimed water. This paper aims to examine the state of implementation of the provisions of this Regulation at the time of its entry into force. Based on desk research, the legal status of water reuse in EU countries, with particular emphasis on the issues of reclaimed water quality and its applications, was analyzed. The state of implementation of solutions regulating water reuse varies significantly across the EU’s countries. Central and Eastern European (e.g., Poland, Germany, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia) countries are in no rush to regulate water reuse in agriculture; some will take advantage of the derogation to gain more time to consider it. Southern countries (e.g., Greece, Italy, France, Spain) are the most advanced and have experience in practical implementations gained before the Regulation was introduced. However, they use different quality control parameters. For now, France, Greece, Portugal, and Spain have fully implemented EC Regulation (2020/741); Belgium, Hungary, and Italy have partially implemented it; Malta has implemented it practically but not formally; and Cyprus has implemented it in distributed regulations. It should be pointed out that the potential for water reuse in the EU is significant, and this process is needed due to climate change consequences for Europe’s water resources. Therefore, further initiatives are expected, including the implementation by other countries of the provisions of Regulation (2020/741) in the coming decades.
Journal Article
Assessing Macro-economic Effects of Climate Impacts on Energy Demand in EU Sub-national Regions
European policy makers are increasingly interested in higher spatial representations of future macro-economic consequences from climate-induced shifts in the energy demand. Indeed, EU sub-national level analyses are currently missing in the literature. In this paper, we conduct a macro-economic assessment of the climate change impacts on energy demand at the EU sub-national level by considering twelve types of energy demand impacts, which refer to three carriers (petroleum, gas, and electricity) and four sectors (agriculture, industry, services, and residential). These impacts have been estimated using climatic data at a high spatial resolution across nine Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) and Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) combinations. The impacts feed into a Computable General Equilibrium model, whose regional coverage has been extended to the sub-national NUTS2 and NUTS1 level. Results show that negative macroeconomic effects are not negligible in regions located in Southern Europe mainly driven by increased energy demand for cooling. By 2070, we find negative effects larger than 1% of GDP, especially in SSP5-RCP8.5 and SSP3-RCP4.5 with a maximum of − 7.5% in Cyprus. Regarding regional differences, we identify economic patterns of winners and losers between Northern and Southern Europe. Contrasting scenario combinations, we find that mitigation reduces adverse macro-economic effects for Europe up to a factor of ten in 2070, from 0.4% GDP loss in SSP5-RCP8.5 to 0.04% in SSP2-RCP2.6.
Journal Article
Climate change and extremes in the Mediterranean island of Cyprus: from historical trends to future projections
Cyprus is a European island state in the eastern Mediterranean climate change hotspot. Despite being a relatively small island, it has diverse climatic zones, ranging from semi-arid to subhumid in the mountains and humid on Mount Olympos. Given the accelerated rate of environmental change in the region, the present study aims to identify, and update observed trends of critical climate parameters, highlighting vulnerable climatic areas within the island. Moreover, since nationwide multi-model assessments of future climate conditions are limited or outdated, we aim to investigate the range of future climate projections using a 21-member EURO-CORDEX ensemble under pathways RCP2.6 and RCP8.5. Besides mean conditions, we analyze various extreme climate indicators relevant to socio-economic activities such as agriculture, biodiversity, tourism, energy and water resources. Our historical analysis revealed a statistically significant increasing temperature trend (0.4 °C–0.6 °C per decade), which is more pronounced during the summer and spring. Concerning precipitation, the observed trends are not as robust, nevertheless, the southeastern coast and the central regions near the capital city of Nicosia are substantially drier and more prone to further changes in precipitation regimes. The projections for the end of the 21st century, according to the high radiative forcing scenario (RCP8.5), indicate that Cyprus is likely to experience an annual temperature increase of over 4 °C and an approximate 20%–30% reduction in annual rainfall, relative to 1981–2000. These projections highlight an alarming trend that requires urgent attention and proactive measures to mitigate the potential impacts of climate change on the island.
Journal Article
Evaluation of Renewable Energy Sources Sector Development in the European Union
The global energy landscape is transforming, driven by the urgent need to address climate change, reduce dependency on fossil fuels, and promote sustainable economic growth. Renewable energy sources (RESs) have emerged as a cornerstone of this transition, offering environmental benefits and significant potential to catalyze economic development. By harnessing inexhaustible natural resources, such as solar, wind, hydro, and biomass, renewable energy systems provide a pathway to achieving energy security, fostering innovation, and generating new economic opportunities. In this article, the economic effect on the RES sector development was examined. The authors defined the set from seven indicators: real GDP growth, unemployment rate, inflation rate, exports of goods and services, government debt, foreign direct investments, and labor cost index, which allowed them to evaluate the EU countries’ economic situation and rank the countries by economic stability level. The results, which were obtained using a multi-criteria evaluation method, show that the EU countries whose economies are the strongest according to the evaluated macroeconomic indicators are Luxembourg, Malta, Estonia, and Ireland. The countries with the lowest scores are Greece, Italy, and Spain. Seeking to evaluate the development level of the RES sector in all ranked EU countries, the analysis of RES sector development during the 2012–2022 period, using these RES indicators—share of renewable energy in gross final energy consumption by sector—in general, in transport, in electricity, and in heating and cooling, was carried out and, through a different multi-criteria method, the countries were ranked by RES development. After the analysis was carried out, it could be stated that the economic situation stability in the country does not directly affect the growth of the RES sector development, and the two rankings by different indicators are heavily uncorrelated. RES sector development can be affected by many other circumstances. RES development is still stagnating in some countries, despite macroeconomic stability, for several reasons: institutional and political barriers, differences in the availability of finance, infrastructure limitations, and technological and human resource shortages.
Journal Article
300-year drought frames Late Bronze Age to Early Iron Age transition in the Near East: new palaeoecological data from Cyprus and Syria
In Eastern Mediterranean history, 1200 BCE is a symbolic date. Its significance is tied to the important upheavals that destabilised regional-scale economic systems, leading to the dislocation of mighty Empires and, finally, to the “demise” of a societal model (termed “the Crisis Years”). Recent studies have suggested that a centuries-long drought, of regional scale, termed the 3.2 ka BP event, could be one of the motors behind this spiral of decline. Here, we focus on this pivotal period, coupling new palaeoenvironmental data and radiocarbon dates from Syria (the site of Tell Tweini) and Cyprus (the site of Pyla-Kokkinokremnos), to probe whether climate change accelerated changes in the Eastern Mediterranean’s Old World, by inducing crop failures/low harvests, possibly engendering severe food shortages and even famine. We show that the Late Bronze Age crisis and the following Dark Ages were framed by an ~ 300-year drought episode that significantly impacted crop yields and may have led to famine. Our data underline the agro-productive sensitivity of ancient Mediterranean societies to environmental changes, as well as the potential link between adverse climate pressures and harvest/famine.
Journal Article