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Major crops and water scarcity in Egypt : irrigation water management under changing climate
Including multi-disciplinary quantifications of the effect of climate change on the water requirements of wheat, maize, rice and sugarcane, this text provides on-farm management that faces water scarcity under current situations and under climate change.
Book
The Collapse of the Eastern Mediterranean
As a 'Medieval Warm Period' prevailed in Western Europe during the tenth and eleventh centuries, the eastern Mediterranean region, from the Nile to the Oxus, was suffering from a series of climatic disasters which led to the decline of some of the most important civilizations and cultural centres of the time. This provocative study argues that many well-documented but apparently disparate events - such as recurrent drought and famine in Egypt, mass migrations in the steppes of central Asia, and the decline in population in urban centres such as Baghdad and Constantinople - are connected and should be understood within the broad context of climate change. Drawing on a wealth of textual and archaeological evidence, Ronnie Ellenblum explores the impact of climatic and ecological change across the eastern Mediterranean in this period, to offer a new perspective on why this was a turning point in the history of the Islamic world.
eBook
Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources in Arid and Semi-Arid Regions: A Case Study in Saudi Arabia
In the coming years, climate change is predicted to impact irrigation water demand considerably, particularly in semi-arid regions. The aim of this research is to investigate the expected adverse impacts of climate change on water irrigation management in Saudi Arabia. We focus on the influence of climate change on irrigation water requirements in the Al Quassim (97,408 ha) region. Different climate models were used for the intermediate emission SSP2-4.5 and the high emission SSP5-8.5 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) scenarios. The FAO-CROPWAT 8.0 model was used to calculate reference evapotranspiration (ETo) using weather data from 13 stations from 1991 to 2020 and for both the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios for the 2040s, 2060s, 2080s, and 2100s. The findings indicated that, for the 2100s, the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios forecast annual average ETo increases of 0.35 mm/d (6%) and 0.7 mm/d (12.0%), respectively. Net irrigation water requirement (NIWR) and growth of irrigation water requirement (GIWR) for the main crops in the Al Quassim region were assessed for the current, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. For SSP5-8.5, the GIWR for the 2040s, 2060s, 2080s, and 2100s are expected to increase by 2.7, 6.5, 8.5, and 12.4%, respectively, compared to the current scenario (1584.7 million m3). As a result, there will be higher deficits in 2100 under SSP5-8.5 for major crops, with deficits of 15.1%, 10.7%, 8.3%, 13.9%, and 10.7% in the crop areas of wheat, clover, maize, other vegetables, and dates, respectively. Optimal irrigation planning, crop pattern selection, and modern irrigation technologies, combined with the proposed NIWR values, can support water resources management. The findings can assist managers and policymakers in better identifying adaptation strategies for areas with similar climates.
Journal Article
Analysis of combined and isolated effects of land-use and land-cover changes and climate change on the upper Blue Nile River basin's streamflow
Understanding responses by changes in land use and land cover (LULC) and climate over the past decades on streamflow in the upper Blue Nile River basin is important for water management and water resource planning in the Nile basin at large. This study assesses the long-term trends of rainfall and streamflow and analyses the responses of steamflow to changes in LULC and climate in the upper Blue Nile River basin. Findings of the Mann–Kendall (MK) test indicate statistically insignificant increasing trends for basin-wide annual, monthly, and long rainy-season rainfall but no trend for the daily, short rainy-season, and dry season rainfall. The Pettitt test did not detect any jump point in basin-wide rainfall series, except for daily time series rainfall. The findings of the MK test for daily, monthly, annual, and seasonal streamflow showed a statistically significant increasing trend. Landsat satellite images for 1973, 1985, 1995, and 2010 were used for LULC change-detection analysis. The LULC change-detection findings indicate increases in cultivated land and decreases in forest coverage prior to 1995, but forest area increases after 1995 with the area of cultivated land that decreased. Statistically, forest coverage changed from 17.4 % to 14.4%, by 12.2 %, and by 15.6 %, while cultivated land changed from 62.9 % to 65.6 %, by 67.5 %, and by 63.9 % from 1973 to 1985, in 1995, and in 2010, respectively. Results of hydrological modelling indicate that mean annual streamflow increased by 16.9 % between the 1970s and 2000s due to the combined effects of LULC and climate change. Findings on the effects of LULC change on only streamflow indicate that surface runoff and base flow are affected and are attributed to the 5.1 % reduction in forest coverage and a 4.6 % increase in cultivated land areas. The effects of climate change only revealed that the increased rainfall intensity and number of extreme rainfall events from 1971 to 2010 significantly affected the surface runoff and base flow. Hydrological impacts by climate change are more significant as compared to the impacts of LULC change for streamflow of the upper Blue Nile River basin.
Journal Article
Comparison between CMIP5 and CMIP6 Models over MENA Region Using Historical Simulations and Future Projections
The study evaluated the ability of 11 global climate models of the latest two versions of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5 and CMIP6) to simulate observed (1965–2005) rainfall, maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) temperatures, mean eastward (uas) and northward (vas) wind speed, and mean surface pressure. It also evaluated relative uncertainty in projections of climate variables using those two CMIPs. The European reanalysis (ERA5) data were used as the reference to evaluate the performance of the GCMs and their mean and median multimodel ensembles (MME). The study revealed less bias in CMIP6 GCMs than CMIP5 GCMs in simulating most climate variables. The biases in rainfall, Tmax, Tmin, uas, vas, and surface pressure were −55 mm, 0.28 °C, −0.11 °C, −0.25 m/s, −0.06 m/s, and −0.038 Kpa for CMIP6 compared to −65 mm, 0.07 °C, −0.87 °C, −0.41 m/s, −0.05 m/s, and 0.063 Kpa for CMIP5. The uncertainty in CMIP6 projections of rainfall, Tmax, Tmin, uas, vas, and wind speed was relative more narrow than those for CMIP5. The projections showed a higher increase in Tmin than Tmax by 0.64 °C, especially in the central region. Besides, rainfall in most parts of MENA would increase; however, it might decrease by 50 mm in the coastal regions. The study revealed the better ability of CMIP6 GCMs for a wide range of climatic studies.
Journal Article
The Issue of Groundwater Salinization in Coastal Areas of the Mediterranean Region: A Review
The Mediterranean area is undergoing intensive demographic, social, cultural, economic, and environmental changes. This generates multiple environmental pressures such as increased demand for water resources, generation of pollution related to wastewater discharge, and land consumption. In the Mediterranean area, recent climate change studies forecast large impacts on the hydrologic cycle. Thus, in the next years, surface and ground-water resources will be gradually more stressed, especially in coastal areas. In this review paper, the historical and geographical distribution of peer-review studies and the main mechanisms that promote aquifer salinization in the Mediterranean area are critically discussed, providing the state of the art on topics such as actual saltwater wedge characterization, paleo-salinities in coastal areas, water-rock interactions, geophysical techniques aimed at delineating the areal and vertical extent of saltwater intrusion, management of groundwater overexploitation using numerical models and GIS mapping techniques for aquifer vulnerability to salinization. Each of the above-mentioned approaches has potential advantages and drawbacks; thus, the best tactic to tackle coastal aquifer management is to employ a combination of approaches. Finally, the number of studies focusing on predictions of climate change effects on coastal aquifers are growing but are still very limited and surely need further research.
Journal Article
Sunflower Response to Application of L-Ascorbate Under Thermal Stress Associated with Different Sowing Dates
Unlike edaphic factors, it is difficult to control climatic conditions and their changes that affect plant growth and development. To deal with such posture, farmers have to cultivate their crops at the right time. From this point, over two–year of 2014 and 2015, a field experiment was performed at El-Nubaria region, El-Behaira Governorate, Egypt, to assess the response of sunflower to different combinations between sowing dates (early, mid and delayed) and ascorbic acid treatments (with ascorbic acid and without ascorbic acid). Ascorbic acid was sprayed at 30, 40 and 50 days after sowing. The results showed that sowing sunflower in mid sowing (May 21) achieved the highest values of cumulative heat units utilization efficiency as well as all growth and yield traits, while the lowest values were recorded under the delayed sowing date (June 21). Application of ascorbic acid was effective for promoting growth and yield traits under all studied sowing dates. Ascorbic acid achieved 11.6, 10.1, 10.7 and 12.9% increases under early sowing, and 9.5, 6.6, 8.6 and 10.3% increases under delayed sowing in head diameter, seed weight plant−1, seed yield and oil yield, respectively. Comparing to mid sowing × without ascorbic acid, application of ascorbic acid alleviated seed yield losses associated early sowing from 15.7–6.6% and from 23.0–16.4% with delayed one. In conclusion, for remediating the thermal stressful impacts of early or late sowing of sunflower, farmers are advised to treat crop plants with ascorbic acid to avoid yield losses.
Journal Article
Novel Design of Double Slope Solar Distiller with Prismatic Absorber Basin, Linen Wicks, and Dual Parallel Spraying Nozzles: Experimental Investigation and Energic–Exergic-Economic Analyses
Increasing the evaporation zone inside the solar distiller (SD) is a pivotal method for augmenting its freshwater production. Hence, in this work, a newly designed prismatic absorber basin covered by linen wicks was utilized instead of the conventional flat absorber basin to increase the surface area of the vaporization zone in a double-slope solar distiller (DSSD). Meanwhile, for further enhancement of modified DSSD performance, dual parallel spraying nozzles are incorporated underneath the glass cover as a saltwater feed supply to minimize the thickness of the saltwater film on the wick, which enhances the heating process of the wick surface and, consequently, the evaporation and condensation processes are improved. Two double slope distillers, namely a double slope solar distiller with wick prismatic basin and dual parallel spraying nozzles (DSSD-WPB&DPSN) and a traditional double slope solar distiller (TDSSD), are made and tested in the outdoor summer conditions of Tanta, Egypt (31° E and 30.5° N). A comparative energic–exergic-economic analysis of the two proposed solar stills is also conducted, in terms of the cumulative distillation yield, daily energy efficiency, daily exergy efficiency, and cost per liter of distilled yield. The present results show that the cumulative distillation yield of the DSSD-WPB&DPSN was 8.20 kg/m2·day, which is higher than that of the TDSSD by 49.64%. Furthermore, the energy and exergy efficiencies were increased by 48.51% and 118.10%, respectively, relative to TDSSD. Additionally, the life cost assessment reveals that the cost per liter of the distilled yield of the DSSD-WPB&DPSN is decreased by 11.13% compared to the TDSSD.
Journal Article
Vegetation and climate change at the southern margin of the Neo-Tethys during the Cenomanian (Late Cretaceous): Evidence from Egypt
Changes in terrestrial vegetation during the mid-Cretaceous and their link to climate and environmental change are poorly understood. In this study, we use plant macrofossils and analysis of fossil pollen and spores from the Western Desert, Egypt, to assess temporal changes in plant communities during the Cenomanian. The investigated strata have relatively diverse sporomorph assemblages, which reflect the nature of parent vegetation. Specifically, the palynofloras represent ferns, conifers, monosulcate pollen producers, Gnetales, and a diverse group of angiosperms. Comparisons of both, dispersed palynoflora and plant macrofossils reveal different characteristics of the palaeoflora owing to a plethora of taphonomical and ecological biases including the depositional environment, production levels, and discrepancies between different plant organs. A combination of detailed records of sporomorphs, leaves, and charcoal from the studied successions provide new understandings of the palaeoclimate and palaeogeography during the Cenomanian and Albian-Cenomanian transition in Egypt. The mixed composition of the palynofloral assemblages reflects the presence of different depositional situations with a weak marine influence, as evidenced by a minor dinoflagellate cysts component. The local vegetation comprised various categories including herbaceous groups including ferns and eudicots, fluvial, open environments, and xeric arboreal communities dominated by Cheirolepidiaceae and perhaps including drought- and/or salt-tolerating ferns (Anemiaceae) and other gymnosperms (Araucariaceae, Ginkgoales, Cycadales, and Gnetales) as well as angiosperms. The presence of riparian and freshwater wetland communities favouring aquatic and/or hygrophilous ferns (of Salviniaceae and Marsileaceae), is noted. The wide variation of depositional settings derived from the palynological data may be attributed to a prevalent occurrence of producers in local vegetation during the early Cenomanian of Egypt. For the purpose of this work on the studied Bahariya Formation and its equivalent rock units, where iconic dinosaurs and other fossil fauna roamed, we attempt to improve the understanding of Egypt’s Cenomanian climate, which is reconstructed as generally warm and humid punctuated by phases of considerably drier conditions of varying duration.
Journal Article
Comparison of Urbanization, Climate Change, and Drainage Design Impacts on Urban Flashfloods in an Arid Region: Case Study, New Cairo, Egypt
Urban flooding is considered one of the hazardous disasters in metropolitan areas, especially for those located in arid regions. Due to the associated risks of climate change in increasing the frequency of extreme rainfall events, climate-induced migration to urban areas leads to the intensification of urban settlements in arid regions as well as an increase in urban expansion towards arid land outskirts. This not only stresses the available infrastructure but also produces substantial social instability due to unplanned urban growth. Therefore, this study sheds light on the main factors that are increasing the flood risk, through examining the consequences of rapid urban growth and the performance of drainage networks on urban flood volumes and comparing it with the effects induced by climate change on the surface runoff. The effect of urbanization is assessed through land use maps showing the historical urbanization conditions for the past 30 years, while considering the role of urban planning and its effect on exacerbating surface runoff. Six climate projection scenarios adopted from three Global Climate Models under two Representative Concentration Pathways (4.5 and 8.5) during the period (2006–2020) were compared to ground observed rainfall data to identify which climate scenario we are likely following and then evaluate its effects on the current rainfall trends up to the year 2050. The significance of the drainage design in the mitigation or increase of surface runoff is evaluated through capacity-load balance during regular and extreme storms. It is found that using impervious surfaces coupled with poor planning causing the blockage of natural flood plains led to an increase in the total runoff of about 180%, which is three times more than the effect induced by climate change for the same analysis period. Climate change decreased the intensities of 2- and 5-year rainfall events by 6% while increasing the intensities of extreme events corresponds to 100-year by 17%. Finally, the urban drainage had a distinguished role in increasing surface runoff, as 70% of the network performed poorly during the smallest rainfall event of 2-year return period. The study emphasizes the urgency to re-evaluate the existing and future urban drainage design approach: although urban development and climate change have inevitable effects on the increase in urban flood volumes, it could be alleviated through improved infrastructures.
Journal Article