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Climate change, disaster risk, and the urban poor : cities building resilience for a changing world
Poor people living in slums are at particularly high risk from the impacts of climate change and natural hazards. They live on the most vulnerable land within cities, typically areas deemed undesirable by others and thus affordable. This study analyzes the key challenges facing the urban poor, given the risks associated with climate change and disasters, particularly with regard to the delivery of basic services, and identifies strategies and financing opportunities for addressing these risks. The main audience for this study includes mayors and other city managers, national governments, donors, and practitioners in the fields of climate change, disaster-risk management, and urban development. The work is part of a broader program under the Mayor's task force on climate change, disaster risk and the urban poor. The study is organized in four chapters covering: 1) a broad look at climate change and disaster risk in cities of the developing world, with particular implications for the urban poor; 2) analysis of the vulnerability of the urban poor; 3) discussion of recommended approaches for building resilience for the urban poor; and 4) review of the financing opportunities for covering investments in basic services and other needs associated with climate and disaster risk.
eBook
The poverty and welfare impacts of climate change
Over the past century, the world has seen a sustained decline in the proportion of people living in poverty, but climate change could challenge poverty reduction efforts. On the Poverty and Welfare Impacts of Climate Change: Quantifying the Effects, Identifying the Adaptation Strategies surveys the relevant research on how climate change may affect global poverty rates and presents country-specific studies with implications for low-income rural populations as well as governments' risk management programs.An evidence review examines three main strands of the literature. Unsurprisingly, the impacts of climate change are shown to be generally regressive-falling more heavily on the poor than on the rich. However, most estimates have tended to ignore the effect of aggregate economic growth on poverty and household welfare. With continued growth, the evidence suggests that the poverty impact will be relatively modest and will not reverse the major decline in poverty expected over the next 40 years. Sector-specific studies-focusing on how climate change may affect agricultural yields-are generally poor predictors of national-level poverty impacts because of heterogeneity in the ability of households to adapt. That heterogeneity features prominently in studies of how weather shocks affect rural households in Indonesia and Mexico. Erratic deviations from long-term weather patterns affect growing cycles and thereby rural households' consumption (per capita expenditure) and health indicators. In Indonesia, the affected households appeared able to protect food expenditures at the expense of nonfood expenditures, and their access to credit and community public-works projects had the strongest moderating effects. In Mexico, weather shocks affected both food and nonfood consumption in ways that varied by both region and timing. The affected households' ability
to smooth consumption depended on factors including proximity to bus stations. In some regions, weather shocks also had measurable stunting effects on the stature of children between 12 and 47 months of age, perhaps from changes in household income, increases in communicable diseases, or both. Overall, more region-specific analyses within more finely tuned climate categories will help researchers to better estimate the effects of climate change on poverty and the effectiveness of government-level strategies to address those effects.This book will be of interest to academics, and decision makers in government and nongovernmental organizations, seeking to design climate-smart poverty alleviation and safety net programs based on evidence.
eBook
Climate change and migration
Climate change is a major source of concern in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, and migration is often understood as one of several strategies used by households to respond to changes in climate and environmental conditions, including extreme weather events. This study focuses on the link between climate change and migration. Most micro-level studies measure climate change either by the incidences of extreme weather events or by variation in temperature or rainfall. A few studies have found that formal and informal institutions as well as policies also affect migration. Institutions that make government more responsive to households (for example through public spending) discourage both international and domestic migration in the aftermath of extreme weather events. Migration is often an option of last resort after vulnerable rural populations attempting to cope with new and challenging circumstances have exhausted other options such as eating less, selling assets, or removing children from school. This study is based in large part on new data collected in 2011 in Algeria, Egypt, Morocco, Syria, and the Republic of Yemen. The surveys were administered by in-country partners to a randomly selected set of 800 households per country. It is also important to emphasize that neither the household survey results nor the findings from the qualitative focus groups are meant to be representative of the five countries in which the work was carried, since only a few areas were surveyed in each country. This report is organized as follows: section one gives synthesis. Section two discusses household perceptions about climate change and extreme weather events. Section three focuses on migration as a coping mechanisms and income diversification strategy. Section four examines other coping and adaptation strategies. Section five discusses perceptions about government and community programs.
eBook
Reducing poverty, protecting livelihoods, and building assets in a changing climate : social implications of climate change in Latin America and the Caribbean
Climate change is the defining development challenge of our time. More than a global environmental issue, climate change and variability threaten to reverse recent progress in poverty reduction and economic growth. Both now and over the long run, climate change and variability threatens human and social development by restricting the fulfillment of human potential and by disempowering people and communities in reducing their livelihoods options. Communities across Latin America and the Caribbean are already experiencing adverse consequences from climate change and variability. Precipitation has increased in the southeastern part of South America, and now often comes in the form of sudden deluges, leading to flooding and soil erosion that endanger people's lives and livelihoods. Southwestern parts of South America and western Central America are seeing a decrease in precipitation and an increase in droughts. Increasing heat and drought in Northeast Brazil threaten the livelihoods of already-marginal smallholders, and may turn parts of the eastern Amazon rainforest into savannah. The Andean inter-tropical glaciers are shrinking and expected to disappear altogether within the next 20-40 years, with significant consequences for water availability. These environmental changes will impact local livelihoods in unprecedented ways. Poverty, inequality, water access, health, and migration are and will be measurably affected by climate change. Using an innovative research methodology, this study finds quantitative evidence of large variations in impacts across regions. Many already poor regions are becoming poorer; traditional livelihoods are being challenged in unprecedented ways; water scarcity is increasing, particularly in poor arid areas; human health is deteriorating; and climate-induced migration is already taking place and may increase. Successfully reducing social vulnerability to climate change and variability requires action and commitment at multiple levels. This volume offers key operational recommendations at the government, community, and household levels with particular emphasis placed on enhancing good governance and technical capacity in the public sector, building social capital in local communities, and protecting the asset base of poor households.
eBook
Adaptation to a changing climate in the Arab Countries
Adapting to climate change is not a new phenomenon for the Arab world. For thousands of years, the people in Arab countries have coped with the challenges of climate variability by adapting their survival strategies to changes in rainfall and temperature. Their experience has contributed significantly to the global knowledge on climate change and adaptation. But over the next century global climatic variability is predicted to increase, and Arab countries may well experience unprecedented extremes in climate. Temperatures may reach new highs, and in most places there may be a risk of less rainfall. Under these circumstances, Arab countries and their citizens will once again need to draw on their long experience of adapting to the environment to address the new challenges posed by climate change. This report prepared through a consultative process with Government and other stakeholders in the Arab world assesses the potential effects of climate change on the Arab region and outlines possible approaches and measures to prepare for its consequences. It offers ideas and suggestions for Arab policy makers as to what mitigating actions may be needed in rural and urban settings to safeguard key areas such as health, water, agriculture, and tourism. The report also analyzes the differing impacts of climate change, with special attention paid to gender, as a means of tailoring strategies to address specific vulnerabilities. The socioeconomic impact of climate change will likely vary from country to country, reflecting a country's coping capacity and its level of development. Countries that are wealthier and more economically diverse are generally expected to be more resilient. The report suggests that countries and households will need to diversify their production and income generation, integrate adaptation into all policy making and activities, and ensure a sustained national commitment to address the social, economic, and environmental consequences of climate variability. With these coordinated efforts, the Arab world can, as it has for centuries, successfully adapt and adjust to the challenges of a changing climate.
eBook
Cities and climate change
Climate change is one of the most challenging issues of our time. As key sites in the production and management of emissions of greenhouse gases, cities will be crucial for the implementation of international agreements and national policies on climate change. This book provides a critical analysis of the role of cities in addressing climate change and the prospects for urban sustainability. Cities and Climate Changeis the first in-depth analysis of the role of cities in addressing climate change. The book argues that key challenges concerning the resources and powers of local government, as well as conflicts between local goals for economic development and climate change mitigation, have restricted the level of local action on climate change. These findings have significant implications for the prospects of mitigating climate change and achieving urban sustainability. This book provides a valuable interdisciplinary analysis of these issues, and will appeal to students and researchers interested in sustainability at local and global scales.
eBook
Climate change adaptation in small island developing states
A groundbreaking synthesis of climate change adaptation strategies for small island states, globally A wide ranging, comprehensive, and multi-disciplinary study, this is the first book that focuses on the challenges posed by climate change impacts on the Small Island Developing States (SIDS). While most of the current literature on the subject deals with specific regions, this book analyses the impacts of climate change across the Caribbean, the Pacific Ocean, and the African and Indian Ocean regions in order to identify and tackle the real issues faced by all the small island States. As the global effects of climate change become increasingly evident and urgent, it is clear that the impact on small islands is going to be particularly severe. These island countries are especially vulnerable to rising sea levels, hurricanes and cyclones, frequent droughts, and the disruption of agriculture, fisheries and vital ecosystems. On many small islands, the migration of vulnerable communities to higher ground has already begun. Food security is an increasingly pressing issue. Hundreds of thousands of islanders are at risk. Marine ecosystems are threatened by acidification and higher seawater temperatures leading to increased pressure on fisheries—still an important source of food for many island communities. The small island developing States emit only small amounts of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. Yet many SIDS governments are allocating scarce financial and human resources in an effort to further reduce their emissions. This is a mistake. Rather than focus on mitigation (i.e., the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions) Climate Change Adaptation in Small Island Developing States concentrates on adaptation. The author assesses the immediate and future impacts of climate change on small islands, and identifies a range of proven, cost-effective adaptation strategies. The book: • Focuses on the challenges of climate change faced by all of the world’s small island developing States; • Provides comprehensive coverage of the latest research into the most likely environment impacts; • Uses numerous case studies to describe proven, practical, and cost-effective policies, including disaster management strategies—which can be developed and implemented by the SIDS; • Takes a unique, multidisciplinary approach, making it of particular interest to specialists in a variety of disciplines, including both earth sciences and life sciences. This book is a valuable resource for all professionals and students studying climate change and its impacts. It is also essential reading for government officials and the ministries of the 51 small island developing States, as well as the signatories to the 2015 Paris climate agreement.
eBook
Global non-linear effect of temperature on economic production
Economic productivity is shown to peak at an annual average temperature of 13 °C and decline at high temperatures, indicating that climate change is expected to lower global incomes more than 20% by 2100.
The cost of a warming climate
Temperature, and therefore climate change, can affect a country's economic productivity, but it has not been clear if rich and poor countries, or different aspects of economic productivity, show similar relationships. These authors use economic data from 166 countries for the years 1960 to 2010 to uncover a universal nonlinear relationship that reconciles earlier results. Economic productivity peaks at an annual average temperature of 13 °C, and the authors explore the likelihood of global economic contraction under future warming scenarios.
Growing evidence demonstrates that climatic conditions can have a profound impact on the functioning of modern human societies
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,
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, but effects on economic activity appear inconsistent. Fundamental productive elements of modern economies, such as workers and crops, exhibit highly non-linear responses to local temperature even in wealthy countries
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,
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. In contrast, aggregate macroeconomic productivity of entire wealthy countries is reported not to respond to temperature
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, while poor countries respond only linearly
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,
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. Resolving this conflict between micro and macro observations is critical to understanding the role of wealth in coupled human–natural systems
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,
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and to anticipating the global impact of climate change
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,
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. Here we unify these seemingly contradictory results by accounting for non-linearity at the macro scale. We show that overall economic productivity is non-linear in temperature for all countries, with productivity peaking at an annual average temperature of 13 °C and declining strongly at higher temperatures. The relationship is globally generalizable, unchanged since 1960, and apparent for agricultural and non-agricultural activity in both rich and poor countries. These results provide the first evidence that economic activity in all regions is coupled to the global climate and establish a new empirical foundation for modelling economic loss in response to climate change
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, with important implications. If future adaptation mimics past adaptation, unmitigated warming is expected to reshape the global economy by reducing average global incomes roughly 23% by 2100 and widening global income inequality, relative to scenarios without climate change. In contrast to prior estimates, expected global losses are approximately linear in global mean temperature, with median losses many times larger than leading models indicate.
Journal Article