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Economics of climate change in the Arab world
This book takes both a global as well as a local perspective in assessing the impacts of climate change on the economy, agricultural sector, and households in three of the MENA countries; Syria, Tunisia and Yemen. The major channels of impact for global climate change are through changing world food (and energy) prices, especially since all the countries under analysis are or have become net importers of oil and petroleum products and many food commodities in recent years. The impacts of local climate change decrease crop yields in the longer run and through them, productivity in the agricultural sector and all the implications this may have on both, the livelihoods of those dependent on the sector as well as the rest of the economy. The analysis also covered what happens when both global and local climate changes work simultaneously for each country. Findings show that in all three countries the effects of climate change are negative for people and the economy-GDP falls and livelihoods suffer. Furthermore, the prevalence of extreme variations in climate-such as the droughts affecting Syria and the floods impacting Yemen-draws attention to the potentially significant drawbacks that are likely to not only affect any strides towards economic growth and development, but may also reverse such strides if appropriate policies are not in place to weather this storm. The analyses in this book apply CGE models.
eBook
Economics of climate change in the Arab world
This Economics of Climate Change in the Arab World is presents detailed case studies on the impacts of climate change in the Syrian Arab Republic, Tunisia, and the Republic of Yemen that were summarized. The Arab region is already being impacted by climate change through more frequent cyclones, floods, and prolonged droughts. Thousands of rural producers have seen their crops and herds devastated by extreme conditions, and have been forced to abandon their traditional way of life and migrate to crowded urban areas. Those who stay behind in rural areas struggle to cope with shortages of food and water. Climate change affects countries' economies and households through a variety of channels. Rising temperatures and changes in rainfall patterns affect agricultural yields of both rainfed and irrigated crops, and thus global and local food markets. Adaptation is a process that will take place over decades as new information makes policy makers reevaluate their climate vulnerabilities. Still, by seizing the opportunity to act now and act together, the Arab region can not only meet the immense challenges of climate change but advance the development of its entire people.
eBook
The Economics of Climate Change and the Change of Climate in Economics
Climate change is without question the single most important issue the world faces over the next hundred years. The most recent scientific data have led to the conclusion that the globally averaged net effect of human activities since 1750 has been one of warming and that continued greenhouse gas emissions at or above current rates would cause this process to continue to the severe detriment of our environment. This unequivocal link between climate change and human activity requires an urgent, world-wide shift towards a low carbon economy and coordinated policies and measures to manage this transition.
The starting point and core idea of this book is the long-held observation that thethreat of climate change calls for a change of climate in economics. Inherent characteristics of the climate problem including complexity, irreversibility and deep uncertainty challenge core economic assumptions and mainstream economic theory appears inappropriately equipped to deal with this crucial issue.
Kevin Maréchal shows how themes and approaches from evolutionary and ecological economics can be united to provide a theoretical framework that is better suited to tackle the problem.
eBook
Long-term changes in the Arabian Peninsula rainfall and their relationship with the ENSO signals in the tropical Indo-Pacific
We investigate long-term changes in winter rainfall patterns across the Arabian Peninsula (AP) through an analysis of the Climate Research Unit (CRU) gridded rainfall dataset, and long-term rainfall measurements collected at 39 stations distributed across the AP over the period 1951–2010. We reveal a long-term increase in winter rainfall of about 25–30% over the eastern AP and a long-term decrease of about 10–20% in the southern and northeastern AP. A partial correlation analysis suggests that canonical El Niños are associated with significant negative winter rainfall anomalies in the southern and southwest AP during the 1951–1980 period. However, the extent of the El Niño-induced rainfall deficit decreased in subsequent decades. In fact, a significant above-average rainfall occurs in recent decades over Ethiopia, southwest Yemen and central AP during canonical El Niños. Furthermore, positive phases of the Indian Ocean basin mode (IOBM), which lags the canonical ENSO signal by 3–4 months, are linked with significant below-average winter rainfall over the central and northern AP, but only until the 1970 s. We investigated the teleconnections between the variability of AP winter rainfall and various atmospheric parameters from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) twentieth century (ERA-20C) reanalysis. Notably, sub-tropical westerly jet (STJ) shifted southward and intensified over the AP during recent decades. This shift of the STJ favoured an increase in the frequent passage of transients, which contributed to increased winter rainfall over AP. These events anomalously strengthen the upper level westerlies during El Niño Modokis, adding to the recently-strengthened STJ over the AP, thereby further intensifying the transient activity. This large-scale background change likely weakened the impact of canonical El Niño and the IOBM events.
Journal Article
Hydrological investigation of climate change impact on water balance components in the agricultural terraced watersheds of Yemeni highland
Hydrological models serve as valuable instruments for assessing the impact of climate change on water resources and agriculture as well as for developing adaptation measures. In Yemen, climate change and variability are imposing a significant impact on the most important sectors such as agriculture and economy. The current study evaluates the influence of future climate on hydrology and water balance components in Yemen’s highlands using a semi-distributed physical-based hydrologic model Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and employing high-resolution climate projections. The SWAT was calibrated and verified using observed streamflow data from 1982 to 2000 in three large catchments. Ground data from 24 stations and statistically downscaled future climate data for the period 2010–2100 under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 are used. SWAT performance was assessed using multiple statistical methods, which revealed the commendable performance of SWAT during the calibration (average NSE = 0.80) and validation (NSE = 0.72) periods. The outcome indicates an increase in future seasonal and annual rainfall, maximum temperature, and minimum temperature in the 2020s and the 2080s under both RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios. This projected increase in the rainfall and the local temperature will result in increased averages of surface runoff, evapotranspiration, soil water, and groundwater recharge in the representative three catchments up to 6.5%, 21.1%, 7.6%, and 6.4%, respectively. Although, the projected increase in the water balance components will benefit the agriculture and water sector, specific adaptation measures will be crucial to mitigate potential flood impacts arising from the increased precipitations as well as to minimize the consequences of the increased temperature. Likewise, demand for supplementary irrigation is expected to increase to offset the higher evapotranspiration rates in the future.
Journal Article
Agricultural Water Deficit Trends in Yemen
Globally, climate change is triggering shifts in water availability, especially across arid and desert landscapes similar to that in Yemen, where precipitation patterns are increasingly erratic. Here, we use water budget calculations, drought metrics, and trend analyses to examine climatic water deficits, with the aim of unraveling irrigation demands and overall water stress across Yemen. The results indicate that 94% of the influx is lost back to the atmosphere via evapotranspiration, 6% is converted to runoff, and only a negligible amount, generally less than 1%, is retained as storage. The results also show an unrelenting, statistically significant water deficit increase of 0.17 mm yr−1 on the Sen’s slope, at the critical Z-value of 0.005 across the country, for the past 63 years. Our findings challenge the conventional understanding of water deficits across Yemen and suggest that the country’s water resources situation is direr than was earlier documented. Further results show that while the water shortage mosaic across the country experiences interannual variations, their occurrence is significantly intensifying. As such, an immediate and radical modernization of integrated water management systems, including concerted investments in irrigation and artificial recharge wells, especially across the Arabian Sea Coast, the Red Sea Coast, and the Highlands, is strongly recommended.
Journal Article
Evaluating Vulnerability of Central Asian Water Resources under Uncertain Climate and Development Conditions: The Case of the Ili-Balkhash Basin
The Ili-Balkhash basin (IBB) is considered a key region for agricultural development and international transport as part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). The IBB is exemplary for the combined challenge of climate change and shifts in water supply and demand in transboundary Central Asian closed basins. To quantify future vulnerability of the IBB to these changes, we employ a scenario-neutral bottom-up approach with a coupled hydrological-water resource modelling set-up on the RiverWare modelling platform. This study focuses on reliability of environmental flows under historical hydro-climatic variability, future hydro-climatic change and upstream water demand development. The results suggest that the IBB is historically vulnerable to environmental shortages, and any increase in water consumption will increase frequency and intensity of shortages. Increases in precipitation and temperature improve reliability of flows downstream, along with water demand reductions upstream and downstream. Of the demand scenarios assessed, extensive water saving is most robust to climate change. However, the results emphasize the competition for water resources among up- and downstream users and between sectors in the lower Ili, underlining the importance of transboundary water management to mitigate cross-border impacts. The modelling tool and outcomes may aid decision-making under the uncertain future in the basin.
Journal Article
Challenges and Construction Applications of Solid Waste Management in Middle East Arab Countries
Over the past few decades, solid waste production, specifically construction waste, in Middle Eastern Arab countries has dramatically increased. This is characterized by several factors, including rapid urbanization, common food wasting habits, diverse culture, lack of proper planning of solid waste processes, insufficient equipment, as well as lack of proper funding. The exponential growth in solid waste generation rates has led to hazards to health and the environment, causing issues related to air and water pollution under the already increasing pressure of climate change. In this review, we analyze the current solid waste challenges in 13 Arab countries, common diseases, and actual projects applied. The selection of Arab countries was mainly based on the countries with the highest population as well as the availability of data in the field of study. This review also highlights the efforts of the Arab governments that implemented several pilot projects that are not sustainable or effective in the long term. We discuss the main issues facing each Arab country and the main challenges they have in common, as well as the potential to use the great amounts of construction waste in these countries. It is recommended that proper disposal and collection plans should be prioritized in the municipalities’ agendas since air and water pollution represent the main challenge in all Arab countries. Adequate treatment, recycling, and compost production facilities should be initiated and monitored regularly to take advantage of the relatively high percentage of organic matter in most Arab countries. Proper cooperation between the informal sector, private companies, and governments should be ensured in order to achieve long-term goals in the solid waste management (SWM) sector in MENA (Middle East and Northern Africa) Arab countries. This review provides a comprehensive study of the construction waste in MENA Arab countries that will help reach the goal of achieving sustainable countries.
Journal Article
Analysis of long-term climatic changes at Al-Hodeidah-Yemen during the period between 1985 and 2019
Yemen is one of the most vulnerable states to climate change impact in the Middle East. The main objective of this study is to evaluate temperature variability of the city of Al-Hodeidah over the period 1985 to 2019 for monthly, seasonal, and annual data. These were collected from the ground station as well as from the Meteoblue dataset. The time series were analyzed using parametric and non-parametric methods to detect the trend. The annual means of temperature during the past period (1985–2019) were between 26.9 and 30.1 °C. The trend rate between 1985 and 2019 showed an increase in temperature toward a warmer climate for all months and seasons. The increasing rate of annual mean temperature is about + 0.075 °C/year, with an actual increase of about + 0.37 °C/year and + 0.75 °C/decade. At a monthly and seasonal timescale, there is a similar trend rate from December to September, with the greatest rate in November of about + 0.13; 0.11 °C/year. These significantly increasing trends are confirmed by MK statistics (significant at 0.05 level where Z1-α/2 > 1.96). This general trend obviously is related to global warming. In general, the trend across Al-Hodeidah towards a warmer climate demands more effective actions from the Yemeni government and also from the local people to be prepared for increased heat stress, increased water demand, and related adaptation needs.
Journal Article