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"Climatic evolution"
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Natural selection on the Arabidopsis thaliana genome in present and future climates
Through the lens of evolution, climate change is an agent of natural selection that forces populations to change and adapt, or face extinction. However, current assessments of the risk of biodiversity associated with climate change
1
do not typically take into account how natural selection influences populations differently depending on their genetic makeup
2
. Here we make use of the extensive genome information that is available for
Arabidopsis thaliana
and measure how manipulation of the amount of rainfall affected the fitness of 517 natural
Arabidopsis
lines that were grown in Spain and Germany. This allowed us to directly infer selection along the genome
3
. Natural selection was particularly strong in the hot-dry location in Spain, where 63% of lines were killed and where natural selection substantially changed the frequency of approximately 5% of all genome-wide variants. A significant portion of this climate-driven natural selection of variants was predictable from signatures of local adaptation (
R
2
= 29–52%), as genetic variants that were found in geographical areas with climates more similar to the experimental sites were positively selected. Field-validated predictions across the species range indicated that Mediterranean and western Siberian populations—at the edges of the environmental limits of this species—currently experience the strongest climate-driven selection. With more frequent droughts and rising temperatures in Europe
4
, we forecast an increase in directional natural selection moving northwards from the southern end of Europe, putting many native
A. thaliana
populations at evolutionary risk.
The predicted increase in frequency of droughts and rising temperatures in Europe will lead core populations of a temperate plant to an evolutionary dead-end unless they acquire genetic alleles that are present only in extreme edge Mediterranean, Scandinavian, or Siberian populations.
Journal Article
PREDICTING NEAR-TERM CHANGES IN THE EARTH SYSTEM
The objective of near-term climate prediction is to improve our fore-knowledge, from years to a decade or more in advance, of impactful climate changes that can in general be attributed to a combination of internal and externally forced variability. Predictions initialized using observations of past climate states are tested by comparing their ability to reproduce past climate evolution with that of uninitialized simulations in which the same radiative forcings are applied. A new set of decadal prediction (DP) simulations has recently been completed using the Community Earth System Model (CESM) and is now available to the community. This new large-ensemble (LE) set (CESM-DPLE) is composed of historical simulations that are integrated forward for 10 years following initialization on 1 November of each year between 1954 and 2015. CESM-DPLE represents the “initialized” counterpart to the widely studied CESM Large Ensemble (CESM-LE); both simulation sets have 40-member ensembles, and they use identical model code and radiative forcings. Comparing CESM-DPLE to CESM-LE highlights the impacts of initialization on prediction skill and indicates that robust assessment and interpretation of DP skill may require much larger ensembles than current protocols recommend. CESM-DPLE exhibits significant and potentially useful prediction skill for a wide range of fields, regions, and time scales, and it shows widespread improvement over simpler benchmark forecasts as well as over a previous initialized system that was submitted to phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The new DP system offers new capabilities that will be of interest to a broad community pursuing Earth system prediction research.
Journal Article
Living in a dangerous climate : climate change and human evolution
\"Living in a Dangerous Climate provides a journey through human and Earth history, showing how a changing climate has affected human evolution and society. Is it possible for humanity to evolve quickly, or is slow, gradual, genetic evolution the only way we change? Why did all other Homo species go extinct while Homo sapiens became dominant? How did agriculture, domestication, and the use of fossil fuels affect humanity's growing dominance? Do today's dominant societies - devoted as they are to Darwinism and \"survival of the fittest\" - contribute to our current failure to meet the hazards of a dangerous climate? Unique and thought provoking, the book links scientific knowledge and perspectives of evolution, climate change, and economics in a way that is accessible and exciting for the general reader. The book is also valuable for courses on climate change, human evolution, and environmental science\"-- Provided by publisher.
Book
CHELSA-TraCE21k – high-resolution (1 km) downscaled transient temperature and precipitation data since the Last Glacial Maximum
High-resolution, downscaled climate model data are used in a wide variety of applications across environmental sciences. Here we introduce a new, high-resolution dataset, CHELSA-TraCE21k. It is obtained by downscaling TraCE-21k data, using the “Climatologies at high resolution for the earth's land surface areas” (CHELSA) V1.2 algorithm with the objective to create global monthly climatologies for temperature and precipitation at 30 arcsec spatial resolution in 100-year time steps for the last 21 000 years. Paleo-orography at high spatial resolution and for each time step is created by combining high-resolution information on glacial cover from current and Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) glacier databases and interpolations using data from a global model of glacial isostasy (ICE-6G_C) and a coupling to mean annual temperatures from TraCE21k (Transient Climate Evolution of the last 21 000 years) based on the Community Climate System Model version 3 (CCSM3). Based on the reconstructed paleo-orography, mean annual temperature and precipitation were downscaled using the CHELSA V1.2 algorithm. The data were validated by comparisons with the glacial extent of the Laurentide ice sheet based on expert delineations, proxy data from Greenland ice cores, historical climate data from meteorological stations, and a dynamic simulation of species distributions throughout the Holocene. Validations show that the CHELSA-TraCE21k V1.0 dataset reasonably represents the distribution of temperature and precipitation through time at an unprecedented 1 km spatial resolution, and simulations based on the data are capable of detecting known LGM refugia of species.
Journal Article
The weight of nature : how a changing climate changes our brains
\"For readers of Kolbert's Under a White Sky and Merlin Sheldrake's Entangled Life, to all those who love science books about the brain The effects of climate change on our brains are a public health crisis that has gone largely unreported. Based on six years of research, award-winning journalist and trained neuroscientist Clayton Page Aldern synthesizes the emerging neuroscience, psychology, and behavioral economics of climate change and brain health. A masterpiece of deeply reported, superb literary journalism, this book shows readers how a changing environment is changing us, today, from the inside out. Aldern calls it the weight of nature. Newly named mental conditions include: climate grief, ecoanxiety, environmental melancholia, pre-traumatic stress disorder. High-schoolers are preparing for a chaotic climate with the same combination of urgency, fear, and resignation they reserve for active-shooter drills. But mostly, as Aldern richly details, we don't realize what global warming is doing to our brains. More heat means it is harder to think straight and solve problems. It influences serotonin release, which in turn increases the chance of impulsive violence. Air pollution from wildfires and smokestacks affects everything from sleeplessness to baseball umpires' error rates. Immigration judges are more likely to reject asylum applications on hotter days. And these kinds of effects are not easily medicated, since certain drugs we might look to just aren't as effective at higher temperatures. Heatwaves and hurricanes can wear on memory, language, and pain systems. Wildfires seed PTSD. And climate-fueled ecosystem changes extend the reach of brain-disease carriers like the mosquitos of cerebral-malaria fame, brain-eating amoebae, and the bats that brought us the mental fog of long Covid. From farms in the San Joaquin Valley and public schools across the US to communities in Norway's arctic, Micronesian islands, and the French Alps, this is a disturbing, unprecedented portrait of a global crisis we thought we understood\"-- Provided by publisher.
Book
The CESM2 Single-Forcing Large Ensemble and Comparison to CESM1
Single-forcing large ensembles are a relatively new tool for quantifying the contributions of different anthropogenic and natural forcings to the historical and future projected evolution of the climate system. This study introduces a new single-forcing large ensemble with the Community Earth System Model, version 2 (CESM2), which can be used to separate the influences of greenhouse gases, anthropogenic aerosols, biomass burning aerosols, and all remaining forcings on the evolution of the Earth system from 1850 to 2050. Here, the forced responses of global near-surface temperature and associated drivers are examined in CESM2 and compared with those in a single-forcing large ensemble with CESM2’s predecessor, CESM1. The experimental design, the imposed forcing, and the model physics all differ between the CESM1 and CESM2 ensembles. In CESM1, an “all-but-one” approach was used whereby everything except the forcing of interest is time evolving, while in CESM2 an “only” approach is used, whereby only the forcing of interest is time evolving. This experimental design choice is shown to matter considerably for anthropogenic aerosol-forced change in CESM2, due to state dependence of cryospheric albedo feedbacks and nonlinearity in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) response to forcing. This impact of experimental design is, however, strongly dependent on the model physics and/or the imposed forcing, as the same sensitivity to experimental design is not found in CESM1, which appears to be an inherently less nonlinear model in both its AMOC behavior and cryospheric feedbacks.
Journal Article
Atmospheric Escape From Three Terrestrial Planets in the L 98-59 System
A critically important process affecting the climate evolution and potential habitability of an exoplanet is atmospheric escape, in which high-energy radiation from a star drives the escape of hydrogen atoms and other light elements from a planet’s atmosphere. L 98-59 is a benchmark system for studying such atmospheric processes, with three transiting terrestrial-sized planets receiving Venus-like instellations (4–25 S ⊕) from their M3 host star. We use the VPLanet model to simulate the evolution of the L 98-59 system and the atmospheric escape of its inner three small planets, given different assumed initial water quantities. We find that, regardless of their initial water content, all three planets accumulate significant quantities of oxygen due to efficient water photolysis and hydrogen loss. All three planets also receive enough strong X-ray and extreme-ultraviolet flux to drive rapid water loss, which considerably affects their developing climates and atmospheres. Even in scenarios of low initial water content, our results suggest that the JWST will be sensitive to observations of retained oxygen on the L 98-59 planets in its future scheduled observations, with planets b and c being the most likely targets to possess an extended atmosphere. Our results constrain the atmospheric evolution of these small rocky planets, and they provide context for current and future observations of the L 98-59 system to generalize our understanding of multiterrestrial planet systems.
Journal Article