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This paper proposes a two-stage phase I-II clinical trial design to optimize doseschedule regimes of an experimental agent within ordered disease subgroups in terms of the toxicity-efficacy trade-off. The design is motivated by settings where prior biological information indicates it is certain that efficacy will improve with ordinal subgroup level. We formulate a flexible Bayesian hierarchical model to account for associations among subgroups and regimes, and to characterize ordered subgroup effects. Sequentially adaptive decisionmaking is complicated by the problem, arising from the motivating application, that efficacy is scored on day 90 and toxicity is evaluated within 30 days from the start of therapy, while the patient accrual rate is fast relative to these outcome evaluation intervals. To deal with this in a practical manner, we take a likelihood-based approach that treats unobserved toxicity and efficacy outcomes as missing values, and use elicited utilities that quantify the efficacy-toxicity trade-off as a decision criterion. Adaptive randomization is used to assign patients to regimes while accounting for subgroups, with randomization probabilities depending on the posterior predictive distributions of utilities. A simulation study is presented to evaluate the design’s performance under a variety of scenarios, and to assess its sensitivity to the amount of missing data, the prior, and model misspecification.

Background Adaptive designs (ADs) are intended to make clinical trials more flexible, offering efficiency and potentially cost-saving benefits. Despite a large number of statistical methods in the literature on different adaptations to trials, the characteristics, advantages and limitations of such designs remain unfamiliar to large parts of the clinical and research community. This systematic review provides an overview of the use of ADs in published clinical trials (Part I). A follow-up (Part II) will compare the application of AD in trials in adult and pediatric studies, to provide real-world examples and recommendations for the child health community. Methods Published studies from 2010 to April 2020 were searched in the following databases: MEDLINE (Ovid), Embase (Ovid), and International Pharmaceutical Abstracts (Ovid). Clinical trial protocols, reports, and a secondary analyses using AD were included. We excluded trial registrations and interventions other than drugs or vaccines to align with regulatory guidance. Data from the published literature on study characteristics, types of adaptations, statistical analysis, stopping boundaries, logistical challenges, operational considerations and ethical considerations were extracted and summarized herein. Results Out of 23,886 retrieved studies, 317 publications of adaptive trials, 267 (84.2%) trial reports, and 50 (15.8%) study protocols), were included. The most frequent disease was oncology (168/317, 53%). Most trials included only adult participants (265, 83.9%),16 trials (5.4%) were limited to only children and 28 (8.9%) were for both children and adults, 8 trials did not report the ages of the included populations. Some studies reported using more than one adaptation (there were 390 reported adaptations in 317 clinical trial reports). Most trials were early in drug development (phase I, II (276/317, 87%). Dose-finding designs were used in the highest proportion of the included trials (121/317, 38.2 %). Adaptive randomization (53/317, 16.7%), with drop-the-losers (or pick-the-winner) designs specifically reported in 29 trials (9.1%) and seamless phase 2-3 design was reported in 27 trials (8.5%). Continual reassessment methods (60/317, 18.9%) and group sequential design (47/317, 14.8%) were also reported. Approximately two-thirds of trials used frequentist statistical methods (203/309, 64%), while Bayesian methods were reported in 24% (75/309) of included trials. Conclusion This review provides a comprehensive report of methodological features in adaptive clinical trials reported between 2010 and 2020. Adaptation details were not uniformly reported, creating limitations in interpretation and generalizability. Nevertheless, implementation of existing reporting guidelines on ADs and the development of novel educational strategies that address the scientific, operational challenges and ethical considerations can help in the clinical trial community to decide on when and how to implement ADs in clinical trials. Study protocol registration https://doi.org/10.1186/s13063-018-2934-7 .

•First study to provide participant reported evidence of behavioral reasons investigating two retention behaviours: questionnaire return and follow-up clinic attendance.•There were seven core TDF domains relevant for both behaviors identified as both barriers and facilitators: knowledge; beliefs about capabilities; environmental context and resources; beliefs about consequences; reinforcements; behavioral regulation; and social influences.•Involved participants from several host trials with varied experiences enhancing opportunities for transferability of findings.•Findings serve as a guiding framework during trial design to enhance participant retention. To use the Theoretical Domains Framework (TDF) to identify barriers and enablers to participant retention in trials requiring questionnaire return and/or attendance at follow-up clinics. We invited participants (n = 607) from five pragmatic effectiveness trials, who missed at least one follow-up time point (by not returning a questionnaire and/or not attending a clinic visit), to take part in semistructured telephone interviews. The TDF informed both data collection and analysis. To establish what barriers and enablers most likely influence the target behavior the domain relevance threshold was set at >75% of participants mentioning the domain. Sixteen participants (out of 25 showing interest) were interviewed. Overall, seven theoretical domains were identified as both barriers and enablers to the target behaviors of attending clinic appointments and returning postal questionnaires. Barriers frequently reported in relation to both target behaviours stemmed from participants’ knowledge, beliefs about their capabilities and the consequences of performing (or not performing) the behavior. Two domains were identified as salient for questionnaire return only: goals; and memory, attention and decision-making. Emotion was identified as relevant for clinic attendance only. This is the first study informed by behavioural science to explore trial participants’ accounts of trial retention. Findings will serve as a guiding framework when designing trials to limit barriers and enhance enablers of retention within clinical trials.

Novel cancer therapies are often approved with evidence from a single pivotal trial alone. There are concerns about the credibility of this evidence. Higher validity may be indicated by five methodological and statistical characteristics of pivotal trial evidence that were described by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA), which may corroborate the reliance on a single trial alone for approval decisions. We did a metaepidemiologic evaluation of all single pivotal trials supporting FDA approval of novel drugs and therapeutic biologicals for cancers between 2000 and 2016. For each trial, we determined the presence of these five characteristics, which we operationalized as (1) large and multicenter trial (≥200 patients; more than one center); consistent treatment benefits across (2) multiple patient subgroups (in view of FDA reviewers), (3) multiple endpoints (including overall survival, progression-free survival, response rate, health related quality of life), and (4) multiple treatment comparisons (e.g., multi-arm studies); and (5) “statistically very persuasive” results (P-values <0.00125). Thirty-five of 100 approvals were based on evidence from a single pivotal trial without any further supporting evidence on beneficial effects (20 randomized controlled trials and 15 single-arm trials). The number increased substantially from one approval before 2006 to 23 after 2011. Sixty-six percent (23/35) of the trials were large multicenter trials (median 301 patients and 63 centers). Consistent effects were demonstrated across subgroups in 66% (23/35), across endpoints in 43% (15/35), and across multiple comparisons in 3% (1/35). Very low P-values for the primary endpoint were seen in 34% (12/35). At least one of the corroborating characteristics was present in 94% (33/35) of all approvals, two or more were present in 54% (19/35), and none had all characteristics. Single pivotal trials typically have some of the corroborating characteristics, but often only one or two. These characteristics need to be better operationalized, defined, and reported and whether single trials with such characteristics provide similar evidence about benefits and harms of novel treatments as multiple trials would do needs to be shown.

OBJECTIVE: Self-management of type 2 diabetes including avoidance of hypoglycemia is complex, but the impact of cognition on safe self-management is not well understood. This study aimed to assess the effect of baseline cognitive function and cognitive decline on subsequent risk of severe hypoglycemia and to assess the effect of different glycemic strategies on these relationships. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Prospective cohort analysis of data from the ACCORD trial included 2,956 adults aged ≥55 years with type 2 diabetes and additional cardiovascular risk factors. Cognitive tests (Digit Symbol Substitution Test [DSST], Rey Auditory Verbal Learning Test, Stroop Test, and Mini Mental Status Examination) were conducted at baseline and 20 months. Study outcomes were incident confirmed severe hypoglycemia requiring medical assistance (HMA) and hypoglycemia requiring any assistance (HAA). RESULTS: After a median 3.25-year follow-up, a 5-point-poorer baseline score on the DSST was predictive of a first episode of HMA (hazard ratio 1.13 [95% CI 1.08–1.18]). Analyses of the other cognitive tests and of HAA were consistent with the DSST results. Cognitive decline over 20 months increased the risk of subsequent hypoglycemia to a greater extent in those with lower baseline cognitive function (Pinteraction = 0.037). Randomization to an intensive versus standard glycemic strategy had no impact on the relationship between cognitive function and the risk of severe hypoglycemia. CONCLUSIONS: Poor cognitive function increases the risk of severe hypoglycemia in patients with type 2 diabetes. Clinicians should consider cognitive function in assessing and guiding their patients regarding safe diabetes self-management regardless of their glycemic targets.

Factorial designs can allow efficient evaluation of multiple treatments within a single trial. We evaluated the design, analysis, and reporting in a sample of factorial trials. Review of 2 × 2 factorial trials evaluating health-related interventions and outcomes in humans. Using Medline, we identified articles published between January 2015 and March 2018. We randomly selected 100 articles for inclusion. Most trials (78%) did not provide a rationale for using a factorial design. Only 63 trials (63%) assessed the interaction for the primary outcome, and 39/63 (62%) made a further assessment for at least one secondary outcome. 12/63 trials (19%) identified a significant interaction for the primary outcome and 16/39 trials (41%) for at least one secondary outcome. Inappropriate methods of analysis to protect against potential negative effects from interactions were common, with 18 trials (18%) choosing the analysis method based on a preliminary test for interaction, and 13% (n = 10/75) of those conducting a factorial analysis including an interaction term in the model. Reporting of factorial trials was often suboptimal, and assessment of interactions was poor. Investigators often used inappropriate methods of analysis to try to protect against adverse effects of interactions.

ClinicalTrials.gov is a valuable resource that can be used to trace the state and nature of trials. Since its launch in 2000, more than 345 000 trials have been registered. Little is known about the characteristics and trends in clinical trials over time and how they differ by sponsor type. To assess trends in clinical trials registered in ClinicalTrials.gov over time and by sponsor type. This cross-sectional study included clinical trials (interventional studies) registered in ClinicalTrials.gov from January 1, 2000, through December 31, 2019. The trials were grouped by lead sponsor: National Institutes of Health (NIH) and other US government agencies, industry, and other sources (foundations, universities, hospitals, clinics, and others). A static version of the Clinical Trials Transformation Initiative Aggregate Analysis of ClinicalTrials.gov database was downloaded on January 1, 2020, for analysis. ClinicalTrials.gov registration fields, including overall status, phase, intervention, number of sites, use of masking and randomization, sample size, and time to study completion by start year and lead sponsor (organization that provided funding or support for a clinical study). A total of 245 999 clinical trials (interventional studies) were started between 2000 and 2019, of which 135 144 (54.9%) were completed. Among completed trials, 5113 (3.8%) were sponsored by the NIH or a US government agency, 48 668 (36.0%) by industry, and 81 363 (60.2%) by other sources. Most trials were single center (61.3%), randomized (65.6%), and phase 1 to 2 (35.5%) or did not have a US Food and Drug Administration-defined phase (38.4%), with fewer drug trials being conducted over time. Sample sizes were small (median, 60; interquartile range [IQR], 30-160) and diminished over time. Trial median completion times varied by lead sponsor: 3.4 years (IQR, 1.9-5.0 years) for NIH- and US government-sponsored trials, 1.2 years (IQR, 0.5-2.4 years) for industry trials, and 2.1 years (IQR, 1.1-3.7) for trials sponsored by other sources. The findings suggest that the composition and design of trials changed from 2000 to 2019 and differed substantially by sponsor type. Increased funding toward larger randomized clinical trials may be warranted to inform clinical decision-making and guide future research.

A thorough analysis of clinical trial data in the Ionis integrated safety database (ISDB) was performed to determine if there is a class effect on platelet numbers and function in subjects treated with 2′-O-methoxyethyl (2′MOE)-modified antisense oligonucleotides (ASOs). The Ionis ISDB includes over 2,600 human subjects treated with 16 different 2′MOE ASOs in placebo-controlled and open-label clinical trials over a range of doses up to 624 mg/week and treatment durations as long as 4.6 years. This analysis showed that there is no class generic effect on platelet numbers and no incidence of confirmed platelet levels below 50 K/μL in subjects treated with 2′MOE ASOs. Only 7 of 2,638 (0.3%) subjects treated with a 2′MOE ASO experienced a confirmed postbaseline (BSLN) platelet count between 100 and 50 K/μL. Three of sixteen 2′MOE ASOs had >10% incidence of platelet decreases >30% from BSLN, suggesting that certain sequences may associate with clinically insignificant platelet declines. Further to these results, we found no evidence that 2′MOE ASOs alter platelet function, as measured by the lack of clinically relevant bleeding in the presence or absence of other drugs that alter platelet function and/or number and by the results from trials conducted with the factor XI (FXI) ASO.

Clinical Trials have emerged as the main force in driving the development of medicine. However, little is known about the current status of clinical trials regarding nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC). This study aimed at providing a comprehensive landscape of NPC-related trials on the basis of ClinicalTrials.gov database. We used the keyword \"nasopharyngeal carcinoma\" to search the ClinicalTrials.gov database and assessed the characteristics of these trials. Up to December 30, 2016, 462 eligible trials in total were identified, of which 222 (48.0%) recruited only NPC (NPC trials) and the other 240 (52.0%) recruited both NPC and other cancers (multiple cancer trials). Moreover, 47 (10.2%) were Epstein-Barr virus (EBV)-related trials and 267 (57.8%) focused on metastatic/recurrent disease. Compared with NPC trials, the multiple cancer trials had a higher percentage of phase 1 (26.7% vs. 6.7%, P < 0.001) studies and more patients with metastatic/recurrent disease (72.5% vs. 41.9%, P < 0.001). Notably, non-EBV trials had more phase 2 or 3 (78.4% vs. 48.8%, P < 0.001) and interventional studies (89.5% vs. 70.7%, P = 0.002) than EBV trials. Obviously, more phase 2/3 or 3 trials were conducted in patients with non-metastatic/recurrent disease (29.4% vs. 4.9%, P < 0.001); however, metastatic/recurrent trials were more likely to be anticancer (94.6% vs. 63.6%, P < 0.001). The role of plasma EBV DNA in clinical trials is underestimated, and high-level randomized clinical trials should be performed for patients with metastatic/recurrent disease.

Management guidelines assume that results from clinical trials can be generalised, although seldom is data available to test this assumption. We aimed to determine the proportion of patients commencing tumour necrosis factor inhibition (TNFi) who would have been eligible for relevant clinical trials, and whether treatment response differs between these groups and the trials themselves. The British Society for Rheumatology Biologics Register for Ankylosing Spondylitis (BSRBR-AS) recruited a real-world cohort of TNFi-naïve spondyloarthritis patients with data collection from clinical records and patient questionnaires. Participant characteristics were extracted from trials identified from a recent Health Technology Assessment of TNFi for ankylosing spondylitis/non-radiographic axial spondyloarthritis. Descriptive statistics were used to determine the differences, including treatment response, between BSRBR-AS participants who would/would not have been eligible for the clinical trials and with trial participants. Among 2420 BSRBR-AS participants, those commencing TNFi (34%) had shorter symptom duration (15 vs 22 years) but more active disease (Bath Ankylosing Spondylitis Disease Activity Index (BASDAI) 6.4 vs 4.0; Bath Ankylosing Spondylitis Disease Functional Index (BASFI) 6.2 vs 3.8). Of those commencing TNFi, 41% met eligibility criteria for ≥1 of fourteen relevant trials; they reported higher disease activity (BASDAI 6.9 vs 6.1) and poorer function (BASFI 6.6 vs 6.0). 61.7% of trial participants reported a positive treatment response, vs 51.3% of BSRBR-AS patients (difference: 10.4%; 95% CI 4.4% to 16.5%). Potential eligibility for trials did not influence treatment response (difference 2.0%; -9.4% to 13.4%). Fewer patients in the real world respond to TNFi than is reported in the trial literature. This has important implications for the generalisability of trial results, and the cost-effectiveness of TNFi agents.