Explore the vast range of titles available.

Warm-sector rainstorms (WSR) are among the main weather events that cause significant casualties in the Sichuan Basin (SCB). These events are challenging to predict accurately using numerical models, partly due to the locally high air pollution that complicates WSR microphysical and precipitation processes. Aerosols affect the initial cloud droplet number concentration (CDNC) directly, and the CDNC is a key parameter in microphysical schemes that directly influences precipitation prediction. However, how and to what extent the CDNC affects WSR predictions in the SCB remains unclear. In this study, sensitivity experiments were conducted using a cloud-resolving model to investigate how the CDNC affects WSRs in the SCB. The study showed that when the CDNC is high, warm rainfall is reduced, while the cold rainfall is increased, which changes with convection development. First, a higher initial CDNC inhibits warm rainfall during the initial stage of convection. Second, during convection development, a higher initial CDNC accelerates graupel growth and its transformation into rainwater. The cold rainfall process plays a dominant role in this process, leading to an increase in rainfall intensity. Finally, during the convection mature stage, the promoting effect of the CDNC on the cold rainfall process weakens, leading to a decreased rainfall intensity in the higher initial CDNC. In the “initial-development-mature” stage, a higher initial CDNC distinctly affects the precipitation intensity in the form of \"suppression-promotion-suppression.\" The findings of this study contribute to the ability to anticipate the development of WSRs based on pollution conditions in the SCB.

Important aspects of the adjustments to aerosol-cloud interactions can be examined using the relationship between cloud droplet number concentration (Nd) and liquid water path (LWP). Specifically, this relation can constrain the role of aerosols in leading to thicker or thinner clouds in response to adjustment mechanisms. This study investigates the satellite retrieved relationship between Nd and LWP for a selected case of mid-latitude continental clouds using high-resolution Large-eddy simulations (LES) over a large domain in weather prediction mode. Since the satellite retrieval uses the adiabatic assumption to derive the Nd, we have also considered adiabatic Nd (NAd) from the LES model for comparison. The joint histogram analysis shows that the NAd-LWP relationship in the LES model and the satellite is in approximate agreement. In both cases, the peak conditional probability (CP) is confined to lower NAd and LWP; the corresponding mean LWP (LWP) shows a weak relation with NAd. The CP shows a larger spread at higher NAd (>50 cm), and the LWP increases non-monotonically with increasing NAd in both cases. Nevertheless, both lack the negative NAd-LWP relationship at higher NAd, the entrainment effect on cloud droplets. In contrast, the model simulated Nd-LWP clearly illustrates a much more nonlinear (an increase in LWP with increasing Nd and a decrease in LWP at higher Nd) relationship, which clearly depicts the cloud lifetime and the entrainment effect. Additionally, our analysis demonstrates a regime dependency (marine and continental) in the NAd-LWP relation from the satellite retrievals. Comparing local vs large-scale statistics from satellite data shows that continental clouds exhibit only a weak nonlinear NAd-LWP relationship. Hence a regime-based Nd-LWP analysis is even more relevant when it comes to warm continental clouds and their comparison to satellite retrievals.

This study concerns the impact of microphysics on the HARMONIE-AROME NWP model. In particular, the representation of cloud droplets in the single-moment bulk microphysics scheme is examined in relation to fog forecasting. We focus on the shape parameters of the cloud droplet size distribution and recent changes to the representation of the cloud droplet number concentration (CDNC). Two configurations of CDNC are considered: a profile that varies with height and a constant one. These aspects are examined together since few studies have considered their combined impact during fog situations. We present a set of six experiments performed for two non-idealised three-dimensional case studies over the Iberian Peninsula and the North Sea. One case displays both low clouds and fog, and the other shows a persistent fog field above sea. The experiments highlight the importance of the considered parameters that affect droplet sedimentation, which plays a key role in modelled fog. We show that none of the considered configurations can simultaneously represent all aspects of both cases. Hence, continued efforts are needed to introduce relationships between the governing parameters and the relevant atmospheric conditions.

Aerosol–cloud–precipitation interactions (ACI) are a known major cause of uncertainties in simulations of the future climate. An improved understanding of the in-cloud processes accompanying ACI could help in advancing their implementation in global climate models. This is especially the case for marine stratocumulus clouds, which constitute the most common cloud type globally. In this work, a dataset composed of satellite observations and reanalysis data is used in explainable machine learning models to analyze the relationship between the cloud droplet number concentration (Nd), cloud liquid water path (LWP), and the fraction of precipitating clouds (PF) in five distinct marine stratocumulus regions. This framework makes use of Shapley additive explanation (SHAP) values, allowing to isolate the impact of Nd from other confounding factors, which proved to be very difficult in previous satellite-based studies. All regions display a decrease of PF and an increase in LWP with increasing Nd, despite marked inter-regional differences in the distribution of Nd. Polluted (high Nd) conditions are characterized by an increase of 12 gm−2 in LWP and a decrease of 0.13 in PF on average when compared to pristine (low Nd) conditions. The negative Nd–PF relationship is stronger in high LWP conditions, while the positive Nd–LWP relationship is amplified in precipitating clouds. These findings indicate that precipitation suppression plays an important role in MSC adjusting to aerosol-driven perturbations in Nd.

Changes in marine boundary layer cloud (MBLC) radiative properties in response to aerosol perturbations are largely responsible for uncertainties in future climate predictions. In particular, the relationship between the cloud droplet number concentration (Nd, a proxy for aerosol) and the cloud liquid water path (LWP) remains challenging to quantify from observations. In this study, satellite observations from multiple polar-orbiting platforms for 2006–2011 are used in combination with atmospheric reanalysis data in a regional machine learning model to predict changes in LWP in MBLCs in the Southeast Atlantic. The impact of predictor variables on the model output is analysed using Shapley values as a technique of explainable machine learning. Within the machine learning model, precipitation fraction, cloud top height, and Nd are identified as important cloud state predictors for LWP, with dynamical proxies and sea surface temperature (SST) being the most important environmental predictors. A positive nonlinear relationship between LWP and Nd is found, with a weaker sensitivity at high cloud droplet concentrations. This relationship is found to be dependent on other predictors in the model: Nd–LWP sensitivity is higher in precipitating clouds and decreases with increasing SSTs.

Weather and climate models are challenged by uncertainties and biases in simulating Southern Ocean (SO) radiative fluxes that trace to a poor understanding of cloud, aerosol, precipitation, and radiative processes, and their interactions. Projects between 2016 and 2018 used in situ probes, radar, lidar, and other instruments to make comprehensive measurements of thermodynamics, surface radiation, cloud, precipitation, aerosol, cloud condensation nuclei (CCN), and ice nucleating particles over the SO cold waters, and in ubiquitous liquid and mixed-phase clouds common to this pristine environment. Data including soundings were collected from the NSF–NCAR G-V aircraft flying north–south gradients south of Tasmania, at Macquarie Island, and on the R/V Investigator and RSV Aurora Australis. Synergistically these data characterize boundary layer and free troposphere environmental properties, and represent the most comprehensive data of this type available south of the oceanic polar front, in the cold sector of SO cyclones, and across seasons. Results show largely pristine environments with numerous small and few large aerosols above cloud, suggesting new particle formation and limited long-range transport from continents, high variability in CCN and cloud droplet concentrations, and ubiquitous supercooled water in thin, multilayered clouds, often with small-scale generating cells near cloud top. These observations demonstrate how cloud properties depend on aerosols while highlighting the importance of dynamics and turbulence that likely drive heterogeneity of cloud phase. Satellite retrievals confirmed low clouds were responsible for radiation biases. The combination of models and observations is examining how aerosols and meteorology couple to control SO water and energy budgets.

Atmospheric aerosols and their impact on cloud properties remain the largest uncertainty in the human forcing of the climate system. By increasing the concentration of cloud droplets (Nd), aerosols reduce droplet size and increase the reflectivity of clouds (a negative radiative forcing). Central to this climate impact is the susceptibility of cloud droplet number to aerosol (β), the diversity of which explains much of the variation in the radiative forcing from aerosol–cloud interactions (RFaci) in global climate models. This has made measuring β a key target for developing observational constraints of the aerosol forcing.

The Twomey effect describes the radiative forcing associated with a change in cloud albedo due to an increase in anthropogenic aerosol emissions. It is driven by the perturbation in cloud droplet number concentration (ΔNd,ant) in liquid-water clouds and is currently understood to exert a cooling effect on climate. The Twomey effect is the key driver in the effective radiative forcing due to aerosol–cloud interactions which also comprises rapid adjustments. These adjustments are essentially the responses of cloud fraction and liquid water path to ΔNd,ant and thus scale approximately with it. While the fundamental physics of the influence of added aerosol particles on the droplet concentration (Nd) is well described by established theory at the particle scale (micrometres), how this relationship is expressed at the large scale (hundreds of kilometres) ΔNd,ant remains uncertain. The discrepancy between process understanding at particle scale and insufficient quantification at the climate-relevant large scale is caused by co-variability of aerosol particles and vertical wind and by droplet sink processes. These operate at scales on the order of 10s of metres at which only localized observations are available and at which no approach exists yet to quantify the anthropogenic perturbation. Different atmospheric models suggest diverse magnitudes of the Twomey effect even when applying the same anthropogenic aerosol emission perturbation. Thus, observational data are needed to quantify and constrain the Twomey effect. At the global scale, this means satellite data. There are three key uncertainties in determining ΔNd,ant, namely the quantification (i) of the cloud-active aerosol – the cloud condensation nuclei concentrations (CCN) at or above cloud base –, (ii) of Nd, as well as (iii) the statistical approach for inferring the sensitivity of Nd to aerosol particles from the satellite data. A fourth uncertainty, the anthropogenic perturbation to CCN concentrations, is also not easily accessible from observational data. This review discusses deficiencies of current approaches for the different aspects of the problem and proposes several ways forward: In terms of CCN, retrievals of optical quantities such as aerosol optical depth suffer from a lack of vertical resolution, size and hygroscopicity information, the non-direct relation to the concentration of aerosols, the impossibility to quantify it within or below clouds, and the problem of insufficient sensitivity at low concentrations, in addition to retrieval errors. A future path forward can include utilizing colocated polarimeter and lidar instruments, ideally including high spectral resolution lidar capability at two wavelengths to maximize vertically resolved size distribution information content. In terms of Nd, a key problem is the lack of operational retrievals of this quantity, and the inaccuracy of the retrieval especially in broken-cloud regimes. As for the Nd – to – CCN sensitivity, key issues are the updraught distributions and the role of Nd sink processes, for which empirical assessments for specific cloud regimes are currently the best solutions. These considerations point to the conclusion that past studies using existing approaches have likely underestimated the true sensitivity and, thus, the radiative forcing due to the Twomey effect.

Changes in aerosol amount and size distribution significantly impact cloud droplet size distribution, as aerosols act as cloud condensation nuclei (CCNs) and influence the relative dispersion (ε) of cloud droplet spectra. Relative dispersion plays a key role in parameterizing cloud processes in general circulation models (GCMs) and microphysical schemes, affecting precipitation estimates and climate predictions. However, the effects of varying aerosol modes on cloud microphysics remain debated, depending on thermodynamic conditions and cloud type. This study simulates a warm stratiform cloud in Jiangxi, China, using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Spectra–Bin Microphysics scheme (SBM-FAST) from 18:00 on 24 December 2014 to 06:00 on 25 December 2014 (UTC). Satellite and aircraft observations were used to validate the simulation, showing good agreement in cloud structure. Sensitivity experiments were conducted by increasing nucleation, accumulation, and coarse-mode aerosols 5-fold and by reducing the total aerosol concentration to 1/5 of the control. Results show that higher aerosol concentrations enhance cloud formation and broaden droplet spectra, while lower concentrations suppress cloud development. Accumulation-mode aerosols increase small-droplet concentrations, while nucleation- and coarse-mode aerosols favor larger droplets. The correlation between ε and volume-weighted radius (Rv) shifts from positive to negative as Rv increases. This transition is driven by cloud droplet collision–coalescence, condensation, and activation. Increased accumulation-mode aerosol concentrations shift the ε–Rv correlation from negative to positive in the Rv range of 4.5–8 µm, while reduced aerosol concentrations strengthen the negative correlation. Regardless of different coalescence intensities, ε converges with the increase in number concentration of cloud droplets (Nc).

Atmospheric aerosols not only cause severe haze pollution, but also affect climate through changes in cloud properties. However, during the haze pollution, aerosol‐cloud interactions are not well understood due to a lack of in situ observations. In this study, we conducted simultaneous observations of cloud droplet and particle number size distribution, together with supporting atmospheric parameters, from ground to cloud base in East China using a high‐payload tethered airship. We found that high concentrations of aerosols and cloud condensation nuclei were constrained below cloud, leading to the pronounced “Twomey effect” near the cloud base. The cloud inhibited the pollutants dispersion by reducing surface heat flux and thus deteriorated the near‐surface haze pollution. Satellite retrievals matched well with the in situ observations for low stratus clouds, while were insufficient to quantify aerosol‐cloud interactions for other cases. Our results highlight the importance to combine in situ vertical and satellite observations to quantify the aerosol‐cloud interactions. Plain Language Summary Atmospheric aerosols, one of the major pollutants contributing to air pollution, also play an important role in climate through their interactions with clouds. The impact of aerosols on cloud properties remains the largest uncertainty in climate projections, partly due to a lack of in situ observations. Here, we conducted simultaneous observations on atmospheric aerosols and clouds from ground to 1,200 m above ground level in East China using a high‐payload tethered airship. We found aerosols number concentration was high below the clouds, which increased the cloud droplet concentration and decreased the cloud droplet diameter near cloud base. The clouds deteriorated the near‐surface air pollution, thus increasing exposure to hazardous levels. For low stratiform clouds, the satellite retrievals matched well with the observations, suggesting the satellite observation is a powerful tool to investigate clouds. However, the aerosol‐cloud interactions can still be underestimated by satellite measurements as the satellites record cloud properties near cloud top. We emphasize the need for direct in situ observations from the ground to high altitudes to quantify the effects of aerosols on cloud properties. Key Points The pronounced Twomey effect near the cloud base was directly observed during the haze pollution by the tethered airship measurement The observed Twomey effect at the cloud base in East China contradicts the satellite‐detected anti‐Twomey effect at the top of clouds Satellite retrieved cloud effective radius is comparable to observation near cloud base of low stratus clouds, while is biased for others