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Background The burden of asthma in terms of premature death or reduced quality of life remains a huge issue. It is of great importance to evaluate asthma burden geographically and time trends from 1990 to 2019 and to assess the contributions of age, period, and cohort effects at global level. Methods Asthma prevalence, deaths, and disability adjusted life years (DALYs) as well as risk-attributable burden were collected from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 database and were compared by age and sex. The Smoothing Splines models were used to estimate the relationship between asthma DALYs and the sociodemographic index (SDI). The Age-Period-Cohort model was used to determine effects of ages, periods, and birth cohorts on disease rates. Results Between 1990 and 2019, the declines were 24.05% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] − 27.24 to − 20.82) in age-standardized asthma prevalence, 51.3% (− 59.08 to − 43.71) in mortality, and 42.55% (− 48.48 to − 36.61) in DALYs rate. However, the burden of asthma continued to rise, with an estimated 262.41 million prevalent cases globally (95% UI 224.05 to 309.45). Asthma caused greater DALYs in females than in males among people aged 20 years and older. The lowest age-standardized DALYs rate was observed at a SDI of approximately 0.70. The Longitudinal age curves showed an approximate W-shaped pattern for asthma prevalence and a likely J-shaped pattern for asthma mortality. The period effect on prevalence and mortality of asthma decreased from 1990 to 2019. Compared with the 1955–1959 birth cohort, the prevalence relative risk (RR) of asthma was highest in the 1905–1909 birth cohort, whereas the mortality RR continued to decline. At the global level, the percentages of high body-mass index, occupational asthmagens, and smoking contributing to DALYs due to asthma were 16.94%, 8.82%, and 9.87%, respectively. Conclusions Although the age-standardized rates of asthma burden declined in the past 30 years, the overall burden of asthma remains severe. High body mass index becomes the most important risk factor for DALYs due to asthma at the global level.

In many different fields, social scientists desire to understand temporal variation associated with age, time period, and cohort membership. Among methods proposed to address the identification problem in age-period-cohort analysis, the intrinsic estimator (IE) is reputed to impose few assumptions and to yield good estimates of the independent effects of age, period, and cohort groups. This article assesses the validity and application scope of IE theoretically and illustrates its properties with simulations. It shows that IE implicitly assumes a constraint on the linear age, period, and cohort effects. This constraint not only depends on the number of age, period, and cohort categories but also has nontrivial implications for estimation. Because this assumption is extremely difficult, if not impossible, to verify in empirical research, IE cannot and should not be used to estimate age, period, and cohort effects.

BackgroundIdentifying past temporal trends in non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH)-associated liver cancer (NALC) can increase public awareness of the disease and facilitate future policy development.MethodsAnnual deaths and age-standardized death rates (ASDR) for NALC from 1990 to 2019 were collected from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 study. The long-term trend and the critical inflection of mortality of NALC were detected by Joinpoint analysis. Age–period–cohort analysis was employed to evaluate the effects of age, period, and cohort. Last, decomposition analysis was used to reveal the aging and population growth effects for NALC burden.ResultsBetween 1990 and 2019, the ASDR of NALC witnessed an overall declining trend on a global scale, with a decrease in females and a stable trend in males. However, the global ASDR demonstrated a significant upward trend from 2010 to 2019. Southern sub-Saharan Africa and Southeast Asia have the highest NALC burdens, while high socio-demographic index (SDI) region experienced the fastest escalation of NALC burdens over 30 years. The decomposition analysis revealed that population growth and aging were the primary catalysts behind the increase in global NALC deaths. Age–period–cohort analyses showed that NALC mortality declined the fastest among females aged 40–45 years in high SDI region, accompanied by a deteriorating period effect trend during the period of 2010–2019.ConclusionThe global absolute deaths and ASDR of NALC have witnessed a rise in the past decade, with populations exhibiting considerable disparities based on sex, age, and region. Population growth, aging, and metabolism-related factors were the main factors behind the increase in global NALC deaths.

To what extent are new generations ‘Thatcherite’? Using British Social Attitudes data for 1985–2012 and applying age-period-cohort analysis and generalized additive models, this article investigates whether Thatcher’s Children hold more right-authoritarian political values compared to other political generations. The study further examines the extent to which the generation that came of age under New Labour – Blair’s Babies – shares these values. The findings for generation effects indicate that the later political generation is even more right-authoritarian, including with respect to attitudes to redistribution, welfare and crime. This view is supported by evidence of cohort effects. These results show that the legacy of Thatcherism for left-right and libertarian-authoritarian values is its long-term shaping of public opinion through political socialization.

Background The incidence of glioblastoma increases significantly with age. With the growing and aging population, there is a lack of comprehensive analysis of recent glioblastoma incidence trend in the United States. This study aims to provide in-depth description of the patterns of incidence trends and to examine the age-period-cohort effects to the trends of glioblastoma specific to elderly patients. Methods The incidence rates were age-adjusted and reported per 100,000 population. We calculated the annual percent change (APC) in incidence using the Joinpoint Regression Program and conducted an age-period-cohort analysis of elderly glioblastoma reported between 2000 and 2017 to the Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) 18 registry database. Results The overall incidence rate of elderly patients with glioblastoma was 13.16 per 100,000 (95% CI, 12.99–13.32) from 2000 to 2017. Non-Hispanic whites (20,406, 83.6%) made up the majority. The incidence rate of male was about 1.62 times that of female. The trend of incidence remained stable and there was a non-significant increasing tendency for all elderly patients (APC 0.3, 95% CI, − 0.1 to 0.7, p = 0.111). There was a significantly increasing incidence trend for non-Hispanic white (APC 0.6, 95% CI, 0.2 to 1.1, p = 0.013), supratentorial location (APC 0.7, 95% CI, 0.2 to 1.3, p = 0.016), tumor size < 4 cm (APC 2.5, 95% CI, 1.4 to 3.6, p < 0.001), and a significantly decreasing trend for overlapping/NOS location (APC -0.9, 95% CI, − 1.6 to − 0.2, p = 0.012), and unknown tumor size (APC -4.9, 95% CI, − 6.6 to − 3.3, p < 0.001). The age-period-cohort analysis showed the effect of age on incidence trends ( p < 0.001, Wald test), while did not indicate the period and cohort effects of the incidence trends of glioblastoma ( p = 0.063 and p =0.536, respectively, Wald test). Conclusion The overall incidence of glioblastoma in the elderly population remained stable between 2000 and 2017. Period and cohort effects were not evident in the trend of glioblastoma incidence. Future population-based studies exploring the difference in the trend of glioblastoma incidence by specific molecular subgroups are warranted to further our understanding of the etiology of glioblastoma.

Tobacco use and heavy alcohol consumption are risk factors for head and neck cancer (HNC), including oral, pharynx, and larynx cancer. No study has investigated the preventable burden of HNC attributable to tobacco and alcohol in China. We extracted data from 1990 to 2019 from the Global Burden of Disease. The preventable burden attributable to tobacco and alcohol was estimated by subtracting the overlapping fraction derived from a literature search. Descriptive analyses were performed initially, followed by joinpoint regression and age‐period‐cohort (APC) analysis. The future burden was forecasted using a Bayesian APC model. The crude burden increased significantly, while the age‐standardized rates showed a downward trend from 1990 to 2019 in China. Both all‐age and age‐standardized population attributable fractions rose significantly, potentially due to the poor prognosis of tobacco‐ and alcohol‐associated HNC. The absolute burden would continue to climb in the next 20 years from 2019, largely due to population aging. For site‐specific burden, compared with total, pharynx, and larynx cancer burden, the substantial upward trend of oral cancer burden indicated a strong interaction with risk factors such as genetic susceptibility, betel nut chewing, oral microbiota, and human papillomavirus. The burden of oral cancer attributable to tobacco and alcohol is a major concern and is anticipated to become more severe than cancer in other anatomic sites. Altogether, our study provides useful information to rethink the current restrictions on tobacco and alcohol, lean healthcare resources, and develop effective HNC prevention and control strategies. The absolute burden will continue to climb in the next 20 years from 2019, largely due to population aging. The substantial upward trend of oral cancer indicates a strong interaction with other risk factors.

PurposeLung cancer incidences tend to be higher among males than females in both China and the United States, yet secular incidence patterns are different due to distinct population and environmental exposures. We examined long-term and future trends of lung cancer incidence, as well as the associations of age, period, and cohort effects with gender disparities.MethodsUsing data from the Cancer Incidence in Five Continents from 1978 to 2012, we calculated age-standardized, age-specific incidence, and male-to-female incidence rate ratios (IRR), and conducted an age-period-cohort analysis. The average annual percentage change (AAPC) of the trends was obtained by Joinpoint Regression. Bayesian age-period-cohort analysis was also conducted to project incidences to 2032.ResultsIn China, age-standardized incidence revealed a decreasing trend among males, but showed increasing trends among the younger age groups (30–54 years) in females. Age-standardized incidence rates of males decreased but remained stable among females from 1972 to 2012 in the United States. Male-to-female incidence rate ratios narrowed in both countries and reversed among younger birth cohorts in the United States. Gender disparities are expected to continue to diminish in both countries, and incidence among females appears to exceed that of males in the United States by around 2023–2027.ConclusionGender disparities in lung cancer incidence persist and will continue into the future in both countries, but our findings suggested that smoking may play different roles in gender disparities in lung cancer incidence between the two countries. Further population-based epidemiological studies among females in China are imperative.

Background Nasopharynx cancer (NPC) is a great health burden in China. This study explored the long-term trends of NPC incidence and mortality in China. Methods We retrospectively analyzed data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 using an age-period-cohort framework. Results The age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) of NPC increased by 72.7% and age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) of NPC decreased by 51.7% for both sexes between 1990 and 2019. For males, the local drift for incidence was higher than 0 ( P  < 0.05) in those aged 20 to 79 years. For females, the local drift was higher than 0 ( P  < 0.05) in those aged 30 to 59 years, and lower than 0 ( P  < 0.05) in those aged 65 to 84 years. The local drift for mortality rates were less than 0 ( P  < 0.05) in every age group for both sexes. The estimated period relative risks (RRs) for incidence of NPC were increased monotonically for males, and increased for females after 2000. The increasing trend of cohort RRs of incidence was ceased in recent birth cohorts. Both period and cohort effects of NPC mortality in China decreased monotonically. Conclusions Over the last three decades, the ASMR and crude mortality rate (CMR) of NPC has decreased, but the ASIR and crude incidence rate (CIR) increased in China. Although the potential mortality risk of NPC decreased, the risk of NPC incidence was found to increase as the period move forward, and suggested that control and prevention efforts should be enhanced.

Objective PM 2.5 , which is a major contributor to air pollution, has large effects on lung cancer mortality. We want to analyse the long-term trends in lung cancer burden attributable to PM 2.5 exposure and provide evidence that can be used for preventive measures and health resource planning. Methods Mortality data related to lung cancer were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 project. A joinpoint regression analysis was used to assess the magnitude and direction of the trends in mortality from 1990 to 2019, and the age-period-cohort method was used to analyse the temporal trends in the mortality rate of lung cancer attributable to PM 2.5 exposure by age, period, and cohort. Results From 1990 to 2019, the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) attributable to PM 2.5 exposure trended slowly upwards, and the ASMR due to ambient PM 2.5 exposure (APE) increased significantly, that due to household PM 2.5 exposure (HPE) decreased. The longitudinal age curves show that the mortality rates due to PM 2.5 exposure among younger individuals were low, and they significantly increased from their levels among those in the 45–49 age group to their levels among those in the over-85 age group. From 1990 to 2019, the period RRs due to APE increased, but those due to HPE decreased. Similar trends were observed in the cohort RRs. The overall net drift per year attributable to PM 2.5 exposure was below 0. The local drift values increased with age and were above 0 for the over-80 age groups. The overall net drifts per year were above zero for APE and below zero for HPE. The corresponding results among males were higher than those among females. Conclusions In China, the type of air pollution responsible for lung cancer has changed from household air pollution to ambient air pollution. PM 2.5 exposure is more harmful among males and older people. Ambient air pollution should be emphasized, and China should strengthen its implementation of effective public policies and other interventions.

Reproducible quantification of large biological cohorts is critical for clinical/pharmaceutical proteomics yet remains challenging because most prevalent methods suffer from drastically declined commonly quantified proteins and substantially deteriorated quantitative quality as cohort size expands. MS2-based data-independent acquisition approaches represent tremendous advancements in reproducible protein measurement, but often with limited depth. We developed IonStar, an MS1-based quantitative approach enabling in-depth, high-quality quantification of large cohorts by combining efficient/reproducible experimental procedures with unique data-processing components, such as efficient 3D chromatographic alignment, sensitive and selective direct ion current extraction, and stringent postfeature generation quality control. Compared with several popular label-free methods, IonStar exhibited far lower missing data (0.1%), superior quantitative accuracy/precision [∼5% intragroup coefficient of variation (CV)], the widest protein abundance range, and the highest sensitivity/specificity for identifying protein changes (<5% false altered-protein discovery) in a benchmark sample set (n = 20). We demonstrated the usage of IonStar by a large-scale investigation of traumatic injuries and pharmacological treatments in rat brains (n = 100), quantifying >7,000 unique protein groups (>99.8% without missing data across the 100 samples) with a low false discovery rate (FDR), two or more unique peptides per protein, and high quantitative precision. IonStar represents a reliable and robust solution for precise and reproducible protein measurement in large cohorts.