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Trend following : how to make a fortune in bull, bear and black swan markets
\"The legendary trading strategy in depth from A to Z Michael Covel's Trend Following reveals the truth about a trading strategy that makes money in up, down and surprise markets. By applying straightforward and repeatable rules, anyone can learn to make money in the markets whether bull, bear, or black swan-by following the trend to the end when it bends. In this timely reboot of his bestselling classic, Michael Covel dives headfirst into trend following strategy to examine the risks, benefits, people, and systems. You'll hear from traders who have made millions by following trends, and learn from their successes and mistakes-insights only here. You'll learn the trend philosophy, and how it has performed in booms, bubbles, panics and crashes. Using incontrovertible data and overwhelming supporting evidence, with a direct connection to the foundations of behavioral finance, Covel takes you inside the core principles of trend following and shows everyone, from brand new trader to professional, how alpha gets pulled from the market. Covel's newest edition has been revised and extended, with 7 brand new interviews and research proof from his one of kind network.℗¿ This is trend following for today's generation. If you're looking to go beyond passive index funds and trusting the Fed, this cutting edge classic holds the keys to a weatherproof portfolio. Meet great trend followers learning their rules and philosophy of the game Examine data to see how trend following excels when the you-know-what hits the fan Understand trend trading, from behavioral economics to rules based decision-making to its lambasting of the efficient markets theory Compare trend trading systems to do it yourself or invest with a trend fund Trend following is not prediction, passive index investing, buy and hope or any form of fundamental analysis. It utilizes concrete rules, or heuristics, to profit from a behavioral perspective. Trend Following is clear-cut, straightforward and evidence-based and will secure your financial future in bull, bear and black swan markets. If you're finally ready to profit in the markets, Trend Following is the definitive treatise for a complex world in constant chaos\"-- Provided by publisher.
Book
Determinants of Financial Hedging Strategies among Commodity Producer Firms in Latin America
This study investigates the determinants of hedging practices among commodity-producing companies in Latin America. The economic significance of the extractive sector in the region makes understanding firms' hedging decisions and their impact on firm value highly relevant. The findings reveal several key insights. Firm size, leverage, and commodity prices are important factors consistent with prior research. Additionally, the region's exchange rate exposure means that firms' acquisition of US dollar-denominated debt is a significant determinant of their hedging activities, as well as the firms’ access to the international markets. Notably, the type of ownership also significantly impacts hedging, as state-owned firms are more likely to hedge to reduce volatility in their revenues for the case of oil-firms. In contrast to the limited research on Latin American extractive firms, an extensive literature has explored hedging strategies in developed countries' extractive companies. This study aims to address the gap by investigating the determinants of hedging practices among commodity-producing companies in Latin America and their impact on firms' value.
Journal Article
The global diamond industry
\"The Global Diamond Industry: Economics and Development brings together a collection of papers covering various aspects of the diamond industry including economics, law, history, sociology and development. These volumes are motivated by one objective alone and that is to provide intellectual light where none exists. The diamond industry is one that is long steeped in secrecy and each chapter and even each well researched anecdote helps others to understand this commodity and what are at times mysterious operations of the industry. This first volume presents literature tackling broad issues around the structure of the industry and demand and pricing of diamonds\"-- Provided by publisher.
Book
New Evidence on the Financialization of Commodity Markets
This paper uses a novel dataset of commodity-linked notes (CLNs) to examine the impact of the flows of financial investors on commodity futures prices. Investor flows into and out of CLNs are passed to and withdrawn from the futures markets via issuers' trades to hedge their CLN liabilities. The flows are not based on information about futures price movements but nonetheless cause increases and decreases in commodity futures prices when they are passed through to and withdrawn from the futures markets. These finding are consistent with the hypothesis that non-information-based financial investments have important impacts on commodity prices.
Journal Article
Policy, politics and poverty in South Africa
\"When South Africa finally held its first democratic elections in 1994, the country had a much higher poverty rate than in other countries at a similar level of development. This was the legacy of apartheid. Twenty years later, poverty was still widespread. Seekings and Nattrass explain why poverty has persisted in South Africa since 1994. They demonstrate who has and who has not remained poor, how public policies both mitigated and reproduced poverty, and how and why these policies were adopted. Their analysis of the South African welfare state, labour market policies and the growth path of the South African economy challenge conventional accounts that focus only on 'neoliberalism'. They argue, instead, that policies were, in important respects, social democratic. They show how social democratic policies both mitigate and reproduce poverty in contexts such as South Africa, reflecting the contradictory nature of social democracy in the global South\"-- Provided by publisher.
Book
Financialization of Commodity Markets
The large inflow of investment capital to commodity futures markets in the past decade has generated a heated debate about whether financialization distorts commodity prices. Rather than focusing on the opposing views concerning whether investment flows caused a price bubble, we critically review academic studies through the perspective of how financial investors affect risk sharing and information discovery in commodity markets. We argue that financialization has substantially changed commodity markets through these mechanisms.
Journal Article
Forecasting wholesale prices of yellow corn through the Gaussian process regression
For market players and policy officials, commodity price forecasts are crucial problems that are challenging to address due to the complexity of price time series. Given its strategic importance, corn crops are hardly an exception. The current paper evaluates the forecasting issue for China’s weekly wholesale price index for yellow corn from January 1, 2010 to January 10, 2020. We develop a Gaussian process regression model using cross validation and Bayesian optimizations over various kernels and basis functions that could effectively handle this sophisticated commodity price forecast problem. The model provides precise out-of-sample forecasts from January 4, 2019 to January 10, 2020, with a relative root mean square error, root mean square error, and mean absolute error of 1.245%, 1.605, and 0.936, respectively. The models developed here might be used by market players for market evaluations and decision-making as well as by policymakers for policy creation and execution.
Journal Article
Transición energética en Europa, extractivismo verde en América Latina?
La transición energética en Europa sugiere un posible nuevo boom de los commodities. Además, existe un constante aumento de las energías renovables almacenables, especialmente de hidrógeno verde. ¿Hasta qué punto este desarrollo conduce a un nuevo extractivismo, esta vez bajo un signo «verde»? En el marco de la transición energética, los movimientos sociales se enfrentan al reto de actuar no solo contra la expansión de la explotación de los recursos, sino también contra un discurso hegemónico verde-tecnológico y tecnoeconomicista que dificulta la creación de alianzas internacionales.
Journal Article
Law Enforcement and the History of Financial Market Manipulation
First Published in 2014. Routledge is an imprint of Taylor & Francis, an informa company.
Introduction 1. Manipulation: Some History 2. Market Manipulation and the New Deal Legislation 3. Postwar Manipulation and Speculation 4. Manipulation of Commodity Prices in a Time of Inflation 5. Manipulation Setbacks Under the Federal Securities Laws 6. The Battle over OTC Derivatives 7. The Dodd-Frank Act 8. Challenges for the New Manipulation Standards
Jerry W. Markham is a Professor of Law at the Florida International University College of Law in Miami, USA.
\"Professor Markham has written another masterpiece. His book provides a rich history and detailed analysis of financial fraudulence, commonly known as manipulation, from a regulatory policy perspective, and the ways that case law has evolved and characterized this fraud. Markham then properly addresses the new theories that have been developed since the passage of Dodd-Frank in 2010 and places them in the context of the rich enforcement traditions of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the Securities and Exchange Commission, the Federal Trade Commission, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, and others. The book is a must read for financial services lawyers and regulators as well as academics.\" -- Ronald Filler, New York Law School
\"Jerry Markham as always provides an insightful analysis on the history of the financial markets--this time focusing on law enforcement and market manipulation.\" -- Thomas Lee Hazen, School of Law, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
eBook
Modelling extreme risk spillovers in the commodity markets around crisis periods including COVID19
In this paper, we examine extreme spillovers among the realized volatility of various energy, metals, and agricultural commodities over the period from September 23, 2008, to June 1, 2020. Using high-frequency (5-min) price data on commodity futures, we compute daily realized volatility and then apply quantile-based connectedness measures. The results show that the connectedness measures estimated at the lower and upper quantiles are much higher than those estimated at the median, implying that realized volatility shocks circulate more intensely during extreme events relative to normal periods, which endangers the stability of the system of volatility connectedness under extreme events such as the COVID19 outbreak. There is evidence of a strong asymmetry between the behaviour of volatility spillovers in lower and upper quantiles, given that the connectedness measures estimated at the upper quantile are the highest. The main results are robust to rolling window size and other alternative choices. Our analyses matter to investors and policy makers who are concerned with the stability of commodity markets.
Journal Article