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"Commodity prices"
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Forecasting wholesale prices of yellow corn through the Gaussian process regression
For market players and policy officials, commodity price forecasts are crucial problems that are challenging to address due to the complexity of price time series. Given its strategic importance, corn crops are hardly an exception. The current paper evaluates the forecasting issue for China’s weekly wholesale price index for yellow corn from January 1, 2010 to January 10, 2020. We develop a Gaussian process regression model using cross validation and Bayesian optimizations over various kernels and basis functions that could effectively handle this sophisticated commodity price forecast problem. The model provides precise out-of-sample forecasts from January 4, 2019 to January 10, 2020, with a relative root mean square error, root mean square error, and mean absolute error of 1.245%, 1.605, and 0.936, respectively. The models developed here might be used by market players for market evaluations and decision-making as well as by policymakers for policy creation and execution.
Journal Article
Financialization of Commodity Markets
The large inflow of investment capital to commodity futures markets in the past decade has generated a heated debate about whether financialization distorts commodity prices. Rather than focusing on the opposing views concerning whether investment flows caused a price bubble, we critically review academic studies through the perspective of how financial investors affect risk sharing and information discovery in commodity markets. We argue that financialization has substantially changed commodity markets through these mechanisms.
Journal Article
Commodities, governance and economic development under globalization
Alfred Maizels' work on commodity trade and prices documented trends in a major area of international economic relations. This title elaborates the ideas in the tradition of Maizels' contributions, and discusses and extends these theories in relation to current problems.
Book
Do oil price increases cause higher food prices?
US retail food price increases in recent years may seem large in nominal terms, but after adjusting for inflation have been quite modest even after the change in US biofuel policies in 2006. In contrast, increases in the real prices of corn, soybeans, wheat and rice received by US farmers have been more substantial and can be linked in part to increases in the real price of oil. That link, however, appears largely driven by common macroeconomic determinants of the prices of oil and of agricultural commodities rather than the pass-through from higher oil prices. We show that there is no evidence that corn ethanol mandates have created a tight link between oil and agricultural markets. Moreover, increases in agricultural commodity prices have contributed little to US retail food price increases, because of the small cost share of agricultural products in food prices. In short, there is no evidence that oil price shocks have been associated with more than a negligible increase in US retail food prices in recent years. Nor is there evidence for the prevailing wisdom that oil-price driven increases in the cost of food processing, packaging, transportation and distribution have been responsible for higher retail food prices. Similar results hold for other industrialized countries. There is reason, however, to expect food commodity prices to be more tightly linked to retail food prices in developing countries.
Journal Article
Agricultural Product Price Forecasting Methods: A Review
Agricultural price prediction is a hot research topic in the field of agriculture, and accurate prediction of agricultural prices is crucial to realize the sustainable and healthy development of agriculture. It explores traditional forecasting methods, intelligent forecasting methods, and combination model forecasting methods, and discusses the challenges faced in the current research landscape of agricultural commodity price prediction. The results of the study show that: (1) The use of combined models for agricultural product price forecasting is a future development trend, and exploring the combination principle of the models is a key to realize accurate forecasting; (2) the integration of the combination of structured data and unstructured variable data into the models for price forecasting is a future development trend; and (3) in the prediction of agricultural product prices, both the accuracy of the values and the precision of the trends should be ensured. This paper reviews and analyzes the methods of agricultural product price prediction and expects to provide some help for the development of research in this field.
Journal Article
Seasonality in commodity prices: new approaches for pricing plain vanilla options
We present a new term-structure model for commodity futures prices based on Trolle and Schwartz (2009), which we extend by incorporating seasonal stochastic volatility represented with two different sinusoidal expressions. We obtain a quasi-analytical representation of the characteristic function of the futures log-prices and closed-form expressions for standard European options’ prices using the fast Fourier transform algorithm. We price plain vanilla options on the Henry Hub natural gas futures contracts, using our model and extant models. We obtain higher accuracy levels with our model than with the extant models.
Journal Article
Examining the Impact of Energy Price Volatility on Commodity Prices from Energy Supply Chain Perspectives
Oil has historically been the most significant primary energy source for our daily lives and business activities. However, recent skyrocketing oil prices have been one of the greatest concerns among policymakers, business executives, and the general public due to their impacts on daily necessities, including food, clothing, and automobile transportation. As a result, fast-rising inflation on the global scale is attributed to mounting oil prices. Even though many countries have made a conscious effort to tame oil prices and the subsequent inflation, their efforts are often in vain due to some uncontrollable situations. These situations include the ongoing war between Ukraine and Russia, where Russia began weaponizing its oil resources and limiting oil supplies to its neighboring European countries. Faced with the current energy crisis, a growing number of policymakers and business executives have attempted to develop energy-induced risk mitigation strategies. With this in mind, the primary purpose of this paper is to investigate what may have caused oil price hikes and to determine how significantly oil prices influence commodity prices. This paper then proposes ways to mitigate energy-induced supply chain risks by analyzing four decades of secondary data obtained from multiple sources.
Journal Article
Can Global Economic Policy Uncertainty Drive the Interdependence of Agricultural Commodity Prices? Evidence from Partial Wavelet Coherence Analysis
This paper employed wavelet coherence and partial wavelet coherence to investigate the time-frequency effect of global economic policy uncertainty on the comovement of five agricultural commodities such as maize, oat, rice, soybean, and wheat using monthly data from January 1997 to December 2019. In general, we observed heterogeneity in comovement structures of the agricultural commodities market at different time-frequency scales which are profound at high frequencies from the bivariate wavelet coherence. The partial wavelet coherence analysis shows that global economic policy uncertainty is a driver of agricultural commodity market connectedness. This implies that extreme changes in economic policy uncertainty have the tendency to influence commodity price comovement. This poses risk to the stability of the agricultural commodities market, which requires the policymaker’s intervention to protect against the spillover risk contagion effect in uncertain times.
Journal Article