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Machines that think : the future of artificial intelligence
\"A scientist who has spent a career developing Artificial Intelligence takes a realistic look at the technological challenges and assesses the likely effect of AI on the future\"-- Provided by publisher.
Book
Economía artificial: una valoración crítica // Artificial Economics: A Critical Review
La economía artificial es uno de los métodos o enfoques de investigación para el estudio de sistemas socioeconómicos complejos con mayor crecimiento durante los últimos años. Este artículo presenta una visión crítica sobre sus características, su potencial y los riesgos relativos al uso de esta metodología. Para ello, encontramos útil relacionar y comparar a la economía artificial con la economía teórica más tradicional. Desde nuestro análisis, la economía teórica y la economía artificial comparten los mismos objetivos, presentan menos diferencias metodológicas de las que a primera vista pudiera parecer, y sus aproximaciones son sin duda complementarias. --- Artificial Economics is one of the fastest growing approaches to analyse complex socio-economic systems. In this paper we present our views on the distinguishing features of Artificial Economics and on its relation with Theoretical Economics — the field that in our opinion lies closest to Artificial Economics. In this context, we discuss various reasons why conducting research on Artificial Economics may be worthwhile, and provide general guidelines on how to go about it. Our view is that Artificial Economics and Theoretical Economics share the same goals, do not differ conceptually as much as it is sometimes perceived, and their approaches are certainly complementary.
Journal Article
Blockchain and crypto currency : building a high quality marketplace for crypto data
This open access book contributes to the creation of a cyber ecosystem supported by blockchain technology in which technology and people can coexist in harmony. Blockchains have shown that trusted records, or ledgers, of permanent data can be stored on the Internet in a decentralized manner. The decentralization of the recording process is expected to significantly economize the cost of transactions. Creating a ledger on data, a blockchain makes it possible to designate the owner of each piece of data, to trade data pieces, and to market them. This book examines the formation of markets for various types of data from the theory of market quality proposed and developed by M. Yano. Blockchains are expected to give data itself the status of a new production factor. Bringing ownership of data to the hands of data producers, blockchains can reduce the possibility of information leakage, enhance the sharing and use of IoT data, and prevent data monopoly and misuse. The industry will have a bright future as soon as better technology is developed and when a healthy infrastructure is created to support the blockchain market.
Book
Multilayered Emergent Phenomena Caused by Basic Income and Labor Supply on the Wider Economic System
Despite the growing interest in basic income (BI) in recent years, the existing research has mainly focused on its impact on household finances. However, changes in household behavior may affect the actions of other decision makers, such as businesses and governments, leading to unanticipated outcomes. Therefore, any analysis of BI must use a model with multilayered feedback from the actions of individual decision makers. To actualize such a model, household budgets, firms, and other entities must autonomously determine production levels, prices, and other factors, thereby encompassing a complete circulation of funds. This study constructs a macroeconomic model using agent-based modeling as a basic framework to achieve these goals, and it analyzes the emergent behaviors generated by BI and the labor supply in the economic system. The results show that although BI brings about more equitable consumption by households, it also creates a unique phenomenon wherein Gross Domestic Product increases but economic activity in terms of capital investment stagnates. Upon examining the impact of BI, the results of this study present the need to examine the multilayered feedback influencing mutual decision makers, which arises from the behavioral changes of individual decision makers caused by BI.
Journal Article
Economía artificial: Una valoración crítica
Artificial Economics is one of the fastest growing approaches to analyse complex socio-economic systems. In this paper we present our views on the distinguishing features of Artificial Economics and on its relation with Theoretical Economics - the field that in our opinion lies closest to Artificial Economics. In this context, we discuss various reasons why conducting research on Artificial Economics may be worthwhile, and provide general guidelines on how to go about it. Our view is that Artificial Economics and Theoretical Economics share the same goals, do not differ conceptually as much as it is sometimes perceived, and their approaches are certainly complementary.
Journal Article
Economic modeling using evolutionary algorithms: the effect of a binary encoding of strategies
We are concerned with evolutionary algorithms that are employed for economic modeling purposes. We focus in particular on evolutionary algorithms that use a binary encoding of strategies. These algorithms, commonly referred to as genetic algorithms, are popular in agent-based computational economics research. In many studies, however, there is no clear reason for the use of a binary encoding of strategies. We therefore examine to what extent the use of such an encoding may influence the results produced by an evolutionary algorithm. It turns out that the use of a binary encoding can have quite significant effects. Since these effects do not have a meaningful economic interpretation, they should be regarded as artifacts. Our findings indicate that in general the use of a binary encoding is undesirable. They also highlight the importance of employing evolutionary algorithms with a sensible economic interpretation.
Journal Article
Learning and Expectations in Macroeconomics
A crucial challenge for economists is figuring out how people interpret the world and form expectations that will likely influence their economic activity. Inflation, asset prices, exchange rates, investment, and consumption are just some of the economic variables that are largely explained by expectations. Here George Evans and Seppo Honkapohja bring new explanatory power to a variety of expectation formation models by focusing on the learning factor. Whereas the rational expectations paradigm offers the prevailing method to determining expectations, it assumes very theoretical knowledge on the part of economic actors. Evans and Honkapohja contribute to a growing body of research positing that households and firms learn by making forecasts using observed data, updating their forecast rules over time in response to errors. This book is the first systematic development of the new statistical learning approach.
Depending on the particular economic structure, the economy may converge to a standard rational-expectations or a \"rational bubble\" solution, or exhibit persistent learning dynamics. The learning approach also provides tools to assess the importance of new models with expectational indeterminacy, in which expectations are an independent cause of macroeconomic fluctuations. Moreover, learning dynamics provide a theory for the evolution of expectations and selection between alternative equilibria, with implications for business cycles, asset price volatility, and policy. This book provides an authoritative treatment of this emerging field, developing the analytical techniques in detail and using them to synthesize and extend existing research.
eBook
Adaptive Microfoundations for Emergent Macroeconomics
In this paper we present the basics of a research program aimed at providing microfoundations to macroeconomic theory on the basis of computational agent-based adaptive descriptions of individual behavior. To exemplify our proposal, a simple prototype model of decentralized multi-market transactions is offered. We show that a very simple agent-based computational laboratory can challenge more structured Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium models in mimicking comovements over the business cycle.
Journal Article
A method for solving and estimating heterogeneous agent macro models
I develop a computational method for solving and estimating heterogeneous agent macro models with aggregate shocks. The main challenge is that the aggregate state vector contains the distribution of agents, which is typically infinite-dimensional. I approximate the distribution with a flexible parametric family, reducing its dimensionality to a finite set of endogenous parameters, and solve for the dynamics of these endogenous parameters by perturbation. I implement the method in Dynare and show that it is fast, general, and easy to use. As an illustration, I use the method to perform a Bayesian estimation of a heterogeneous firm model with aggregate shocks to neutral and investment-specific productivity. I find that the behavior of investment at the firm level quantitatively shapes inference about the aggregate shock processes, suggesting an important role for micro data in estimating DSGE models.
Journal Article