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This article assesses the role of conditionality in cash transfer programs using a unique experiment targeted at adolescent girls in Malawi. The program featured two distinct interventions: unconditional transfers (UCT arm) and transfers conditional on school attendance (CCT arm). Although there was a modest decline in the dropout rate in the UCT arm in comparison with the control group, it was only 43% as large as the impact in the CCT arm at the end of the 2-year program. The CCT arm also outperformed the UCT arm in tests of English reading comprehension. However, teenage pregnancy and marriage rates were substantially lower in the UCT than the CCT arm, entirely due to the impact of UCTs on these outcomes among girls who dropped out of school.

Conditional cash transfer (CCT) programs innovate by conditioning transfers to poor families on investments in the human capital of children and other family members. The Mexican CCT program Progresa/Oportunidades began in 1997 and has served as a model for many of the now over sixty countries with CCTs around the world, in large part due to its initial evaluation with an experimental design and numerous follow-up studies. This article reviews the literature on the development, evaluation, and findings of Progresa/Oportunidades, summarizing what is known about program effects, taking into account corrections for multiple-hypothesis testing.

This article reexamines the argument that targeted programs increase pro-incumbent voting by persuading beneficiaries to cast ballots against their first partisan choice. The evidence comes from the randomized component of Progresa, the pioneering Mexican conditional cash transfer (CCT) program. Experimental data show that early enrollment in the program led to substantive increases in voter turnout and in the incumbent's vote share in the 2000 presidential election. The experiment also reveals that opposition parties' vote shares were unaffected by the program. Thus, the electoral bonus generated by CCTs may be best explained by a mobilizing rather than persuasive mechanism. These findings are difficult to reconcile with the notion that the electoral effects of CCTs are a result of prospective concerns triggered by threats of program discontinuation or endogenous program enrollment. Instead, the evidence in this article suggests that CCTs' mobilizing effects are compatible with programmatic politics.

This article estimates the electoral effects of conditional cash transfers (CCTs) in three presidential elections in Brazil. It analyzes municipal-level electoral results and survey data and employs matching techniques to reduce causal inference problems typical of observational studies. Results show that CCTs are associated with increased performance by the incumbent party presidential candidate in all three elections but that these effects have been reaped by incumbents from different parties. It also shows that CCTs have had no discernible impacts on party identification and the performance of incumbent parties in legislative elections. Together, these findings suggest that CCTs are significant in the short run, but lack the capacity to induce substantial long-term voter realignments.

Across many different contexts, randomized evaluations find that school participation is sensitive to costs: Reducing out-of-pocket costs, merit scholarships, and conditional cash transfers all increase schooling. Addressing child health and providing information on how earnings rise with education can increase schooling even more cost-effectively. However, among those in school, test scores are remarkably low and unresponsive to more-of-the-same inputs, such as hiring additional teachers, buying more textbooks, or providing flexible grants. In contrast, pedagogical reforms that match teaching to students' learning levels are highly cost effective at increasing learning, as are reforms that improve accountability and incentives, such as local hiring of teachers on short-term contracts. Technology could potentially improve pedagogy and accountability. Improving pre-and postprimary education are major future challenges.

Conditional Cash Transfers (CCTs) have been shown to increase human capital investments, but their standard features make them expensive. We use a large randomized experiment in Morocco to estimate an alternative government-run program, a \"labeled cash transfer\" (LCT): a small cash transfer made to fathers of school-aged children in poor rural communities, not conditional on school attendance but explicitly labeled as an education support program. We document large gains in school participation. Adding conditionality and targeting mothers made almost no difference in our context. The program increased parents' belief that education was a worthwhile investment, a likely pathway for the results.

Conditional Cash Transfer (CCT) programs, started in the late 1990s in Latin America, have become the antipoverty program of choice in many developing countries in the region and beyond. This paper reviews the literature on their long-term impacts on human capital and related outcomes observed after children have reached a later stage of their life cycle, focusing on two life-cycle transitions. The first includes children exposed to CCTs in utero or during early childhood who have reached school ages. The second includes children exposed to CCTs during school ages who have reached young adulthood. Most studies find positive long-term effects on schooling, but fewer find positive impacts on cognitive skills, learning, or socio-emotional skills. Impacts on employment and earnings are mixed, possibly because former beneficiaries were often still too young. A number of studies find estimates that are not statistically different from zero, but for which it is often not possible to be confident that this is due to an actual lack of impact rather than to the methodological challenges facing all long-term evaluations. Developing further opportunities for analyses with rigorous identification strategies for the measurement of long-term impacts should be high on the research agenda. As original beneficiaries age, this should also be increasingly possible, and indeed important before concluding whether or not CCTs lead to sustainable poverty reduction.

Background Lack of nutrition, inadequate housing, low education and limited access to quality care can negatively affect children’s health over their lifetime. Implemented in 2003, the Bolsa Familia (“Family Stipend”) Program (PBF) is a conditional cash transfer program targeting poor households in Brazil. This study investigates the long-term benefits of cash transfers through intergenerational transmission of health and poverty by assessing the early life exposure of the mother to the PBF. Methods We used data from the 100M SINASC-SIM cohort compiled and managed by the Center for Data and Knowledge Integration for Health (CIDACS), containing information about participation in the PBF and socioeconomic and health indicators. We analyzed five measures of newborn health: low (less than 2,500 g) and very low (less than 1,500 g) birth weight, premature (less than 37 weeks of gestation) and very premature (less than 28 weeks of gestation) birth, and the presence of some type of malformation (according to ICD-10 codes). Furthermore, we measured the early life exposure to the PBF of the mother as PBF coverage in the previous decade in the city where the mother was born. We applied multilevel logistic regression models to assess the associations between birth outcomes and PBF exposures. Results Results showed that children born in a household where the mother received BF were less likely to have low birth weight (OR 0.93, CI; 0.92-0.94), very low birth weight (0.87, CI; 0.84-0.89), as well as to be born after 37 weeks of gestation (OR 0.98, CI; 0.97-0.99) or 28 weeks of gestation (OR 0.93, CI; 0.88-0.97). There were no significant associations between households where the mother received BF and congenital malformation. On average, the higher the early life exposure to the PBF of the mother, the lower was the prevalence of low birth weight, very low birth weight and congenital malformation of the newborn. No trend was noted for preterm birth. Conclusion The PBF might have indirect intergenerational effects on children’s health. These results provide important implications for policymakers who have to decide how to effectively allocate resources to improve child health.

We study the relationship between divorce law reforms codifying intimate partner violence (IPV) as legal grounds for unilateral divorce, the Oportunidades conditional cash transfer program, and the incidence of IPV in Mexico. Using data from three nationally representative surveys in 2003, 2006, and 2011, we show the legal reforms lead to a 55 percent increase in annual divorce rates, concentrated among couples with a history of violence. Comparing groups of beneficiary and non-beneficiary households within villages, we find that IPV rates converge for these couples in the longer-term. Marital selection plays an important role in explaining the long-term relationships.

Long regarded as a region beset by macroeconomic instability, high inflation, and excessive poverty and inequality, Latin America has undergone a major transformation over the last 20 years. The region has seen improved macroeconomic management and substantial and sustained reductions in poverty and inequality. In this paper, we argue that social policy, including human capital and education, social insurance, and redistribution, need special attention if achievements of the last two decades are to be sustained and amplified. Starting in the mid 1990s, many governments in the region introduced a variety of programs, including noncontributory pensions and health insurance, and cash transfers targeted to the poor. Social spending in Latin America increased sharply. These policies have been widely praised, and we believe they have resulted in substantial improvements in the lives of the poor in the region. However, a more nuanced view shows some worrisome trends. Moving forward, we believe it is necessary to pay much closer attention to the quality of services, particularly in education; to the incentives generated by the interplay of some programs, particularly in the labor market; to a more balanced intertemporal distribution of benefits, particularly between young and old; and to sustainable sources of finance, particularly to the link between contributions and benefits.