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Quasi‐linear convective system (QLCS) mesovortices produce a non‐trivial fraction of tornadoes across the United States each year. Tornadoes from QLCS mesovortices evolve rapidly on time scales less than that observed by conventional weather radars. In this study, a well‐calibrated, dual‐polarization phased array radar (PAR) is used to examine three tornadic mesovortices in the 27 February 2023 QLCS in central Oklahoma, with rapid volumetric scanning strategies that included dense elevation angles. Through examining dual‐polarization profiles and three‐dimensional wind estimates around the mesovortices, we show that the mesovortices examined were associated with (a) downdrafts prior to tornadogenesis, (b) increased convergence along the QLCS gust front ahead of the downdrafts, and (c) dual‐polarization profiles that suggest evaporation and precipitation drove the downdrafts. This study represents the first time a dual‐polarization PAR has been used to document tornadic QLCS mesovortices.

Tibetan Plateau mesoscale convective systems (TP_MCSs) shape regional weather and precipitation, yet their thermodynamical and dynamical background characteristics, and microphysical structures remain poorly understood due to sparse observations. To address this research gap, we integrate a 7‐year TP_MCS database with ERA5 reanalysis and satellite observations to construct vertical profiles, enabling a systematic examination of TP_MCSs' structures. Results reveal distinct stage‐dependent characteristics, with peak convective intensity, the lowest 0°C level, the largest hydrometeor diameters, and maximum rainfall rates during the development stage. TP_MCSs' convection intensity is modulated through coupled thermodynamical (temperature, humidity), dynamical (vertical motion, moisture transport), and microphysical (hydrometeor characteristics) interactions that regulate buoyancy, latent heating, and entrainment processes. Moreover, TP_MCSs' precipitation is governed by competing enhancement (buoyancy, moisture transport) and suppression (dry, cold entrainment) mechanisms. These findings are helpful to improve understanding of TP_MCSs' vertical structure and aid convection parameterization in climate models.

Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) bring large amounts of rainfall and strong wind gusts to the midlatitude land regions, with significant impacts on local weather and hydrologic cycle. However, weather and climate models face a huge challenge in accurately modeling the MCS life cycle and the associated precipitation, highlighting an urgent need for a better understanding of the underlying mechanisms of MCS initiation and propagation. From a theoretical perspective, a suitable model to capture the realistic properties of MCSs and isolate the bare-bones mechanisms for their initiation, intensification, and eastward propagation is still lacking. To simulate midlatitude MCSs over land, we develop a simple moist potential vorticity (PV) model that readily describes the interactions among PV perturbations, air moisture, and soil moisture. Multiple experiments with or without various environmental factors and external forcing are used to investigate their impacts on MCS dynamics and mesoscale circulation vertical structures. The result shows that mechanical forcing can induce lower-level updraft and cooling, providing favorable conditions for MCS initiation. A positive feedback among surface winds, evaporation rate, and air moisture similar to the wind-induced surface heat exchange over tropical ocean is found to support MCS intensification. Both background surface westerlies and vertical westerly wind shear are shown to provide favorable conditions for the eastward propagation of MCSs. Last, our result highlights the crucial role of stratiform heating in shaping mesoscale circulation response. The model should serve as a useful tool for understanding the fundamental mechanisms of MCS dynamics.

In December 2021, Super Typhoon Rai caused significant devastation to the South Philippines and East Malaysia. In the meantime, an unprecedented flood event occurred in Peninsular Malaysia at 2,000 km west of the typhoon's path, causing comparable socioeconomic impacts as Rai. Record‐breaking 3‐day precipitation was received by Peninsular Malaysia during 16–18 December. Based on the storm tracking results, this study identified two mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) that were directly responsible for the flooding. The two MCSs were directly initiated by a tropical depression and sustained by an elongated easterly water vapor corridor originating from the Super Typhoon Rai. The return period and joint frequency analysis of key drivers indicate that the 3‐day downpour was more severe than a “once‐in‐a‐century” event. Historical records suggest such anomalous moisture channel has become more frequent in Southeast Asia, which alarms heightened attention in forecasting winter flood. Plain Language Summary On 16–18 December, Peninsular Malaysia received a record‐shattering 3‐day precipitation, resulting in catastrophic socioeconomic impacts. Due to the temporal coincidence with Super Typhoon Rai but far away in space, there were speculations that there might be a teleconnection between the two events. Our results reveal that their relationship could be more straightforward. Based on the analyses of storm tracking database and synoptic data records, we found that two consecutive mesoscale convective systems were responsible for the heavy precipitation, which were produced by a tropical depression that hovered over the peninsula. Meanwhile, Super Typhoon Rai provided a long‐range water vapor transport, akin to adding fuel (i.e., moisture) to the engine (i.e., the tropical depression), and therefore, the precipitation over the peninsula was significantly enhanced. Such long‐range moisture transport has become more frequent during the boreal winter season, posing an increasing risk of flooding in Southeast Asia. Key Points A stretched moisture channel from Typhoon Rai and a strong tropical depression are key synoptic drivers for the flooding event Return period and joint probability of key drivers indicate that the 2021 Peninsular Malaysia flood was more severe than “once‐in‐a‐century” There is an increasing trend in such anomalous moisture channel, suggesting a rising risk of severe flooding in Southeast Asia

Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) play an important role in modulating the global water cycle and energy balance and frequently generate high-impact weather events. The majority of existing literature studying MCS activity over East Asia is based on specific case studies and more climatological investigations revealing the precipitation characteristics of MCSs over eastern China are keenly needed. In this study, we use an iterative rain cell tracking method to identify and track MCS precipitation during 2008–16 to investigate regional differences and seasonal variations of MCS precipitation characteristics. Our results show that the middle-to-lower reaches of the Yangtze River basin (YRB-ML) receive the largest amount and exhibit the most pronounced seasonal cycle of MCS precipitation in eastern China. MCS precipitation over YRB-ML can exceed 2.6 mm day−1 in June, contributing over 30.0% of April–July total rainfall. Particularly long-lived MCSs occur over the eastern periphery of the Tibetan Plateau (ETP), with 25% of MCSs over the ETP persisting for more than 18 h in spring. In addition, spring MCSs feature larger rainfall areas, longer durations, and faster propagation speeds. Summer MCSs have a higher precipitation intensity and a more pronounced diurnal cycle except for southeastern China, where MCSs have similar precipitation intensity in spring and summer. There is less MCS precipitation in autumn, but an MCS precipitation center over the ETP still persists. MCSs reach peak hourly rainfall intensities during the time of maximum growth (a few hours after genesis), reach their maximum size around 5 h after genesis, and start decaying thereafter.

Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) contribute significantly to summer precipitation in the tropics and midlatitude. Although soil moisture (SM) effects on convection are globally recognized, its specific role on mature MCSs in East China remains unclear. Using convection‐permitting simulations spanning 22 summers, we find that convective cores within mature MCSs preferentially develop on the drier side of strong SM gradients (∼200 km). This is evidenced by a 2.5‐fold increase in core occurrences downstream of the steepest 10% of SM gradients versus a near‐uniform surface. SM gradients shape sensible heat flux gradients via evapotranspiration, while upstream pre‐storm rain‐producing clouds suppress surface available energy. These processes favor MCSs through enhancing near‐surface temperature gradients which strengthen moisture convergence and zonal wind shear. Our results highlight the critical role of SM gradients in favoring MCS propagation in East China. As climate change intensifies SM heterogeneity, improved land‐surface representation offers potential for advancing rainfall prediction and projection.

Since the 1980s, Sahel rainfall totals, extreme rainfall, and the share of rainfall from extreme events have all trended upward. In observational and reanalysis data sets, these increases are linked to trends in mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) and extreme deep convection (cold clusters). Throughout this period, precipitation metrics have increased first via increases in MCS frequency and the relative increase in cold clusters, and later via an increase in storm precipitation intensity. Until the late 2000s, increases in the frequency of strong storms were supported by increased vertical shear of the zonal wind, as the African easterly jet intensified in response to the strengthening meridional temperature gradient over the Sahel. Afterward, the storm frequency and vertical wind shear stopped increasing. Yet, extreme precipitation continued to increase, as the storms' precipitation intensity increased. We link the higher precipitation intensity to an increase in atmospheric moisture in both the boundary layer and aloft.

Although tornadoes produced by quasi-linear convective systems (QLCSs) generally are weak and short lived, they have high societal impact due to their proclivity to develop over short time scales, within the cool season, and during nighttime hours. Precisely why they are weak and short lived is not well understood, although recent work suggests that QLCS updraft width may act as a limitation to tornado intensity. Herein, idealized simulations of tornadic QLCSs are performed with variations in hodograph shape and length as well as initiation mechanism to determine the controls of tornado intensity. Generally, the addition of hodograph curvature in these experiments results in stronger, longer-lived tornadic-like vortices (TLVs). A strong correlation between low-level mesocyclone width and TLV intensity is identified ( R 2 = 0.61), with a weaker correlation in the low-level updraft intensity ( R 2 = 0.41). The tilt and depth of the updraft are found to have little correlation to tornado intensity. Comparing QLCS and isolated supercell updrafts within these simulations, the QLCS updrafts are less persistent, with the standard deviations of low-level vertical velocity and updraft helicity approximately 48% and 117% greater, respectively. A forcing decomposition reveals that the QLCS cold pool plays a direct role in the development of the low-level updraft, providing the benefit of additional forcing for ascent while also having potentially deleterious effects on both the low-level updraft and near-surface rotation. The negative impact of the cold pool ultimately serves to limit the persistence of rotating updraft cores within the QLCS.

In the tropics, deep convection, which is often organized into convective systems, plays a crucial role in the water and energy cycles by significantly contributing to surface precipitation and forming upper-level ice clouds. The arrangement of these deep convective systems, as well as their individual properties, has recently been recognized as a key feature of the tropical climate. Using data from Africa and the tropical Atlantic Ocean as a case study, recent shifts in convective organization have been analyzed through a well-curated, unique record of METEOSAT observations spanning four decades. The findings indicate a significant shift in the occurrence of deep convective systems, characterized by a decrease in large, short-lived systems and an increase in smaller, longer-lived ones. This shift, combined with a nearly constant deep cloud fraction over the same period, highlights a notable change in convective organization. These new observational insights are valuable for refining emerging kilometer-scale climate models that accurately represent individual convective systems but struggle to realistically simulate their overall arrangement.

Simulations of a squall line observed on 20 May 2011 during the Midlatitude Continental Convective Clouds Experiment (MC3E) using 750- and 250-m horizontal grid spacing are performed. The higher-resolution simulation has less upshear-tilted deep convection and a more elevated rear inflow jet than the coarser-resolution simulation in better agreement with radar observations. A stronger cold pool eventually develops in the 250-m run; however, the more elevated rear inflow counteracts the cold pool circulation to produce more upright convective cores relative to the 750-m run. The differing structure in the 750-m run produces excessive midlevel front-to-rear detrainment, reinforcing excessive latent cooling and rear inflow descent at the rear of the stratiform region in a positive feedback. The contrasting mesoscale circulations are connected to early stage deep convective draft differences in the two simulations. Convective downdraft condensate mass, latent cooling, and downward motion all increase with downdraft area similarly in both simulations. However, the 750-m run has a relatively greater number of wide and fewer narrow downdrafts than the 250-m run averaged to the same 750-m grid, a consequence of downdrafts being under-resolved in the 750-m run. Under-resolved downdrafts in the 750-m run are associated with under-resolved updrafts and transport mid–upper-level zonal momentum downward to low levels too efficiently in the early stage deep convection. These results imply that under-resolved convective drafts in simulations may vertically transport air too efficiently and too far vertically, potentially biasing buoyancy and momentum distributions that impact mesoscale convective system evolution.