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This paper estimates the dynamic effects of changes in taxes in the United States. We distinguish between changes in personal and corporate income taxes and develop a new narrative account of federal tax liability changes in these two tax components. We develop an estimator which uses narratively identified tax changes as proxies for structural tax shocks and apply it to quarterly post-WWII data. We find that short run output effects of tax shocks are large and that it is important to distinguish between different types of taxes when considering their impact on the labor market and on expenditure components.

We quantify how sensitive is migration by star scientists to changes in personal and business tax differentials across states. We uncover large, stable, and precisely estimated effects of personal and corporate taxes on star scientists' migration patterns. The long-run elasticity of mobility relative to taxes is 1.8 for personal income taxes, 1.9 for state corporate income tax, and — 1.7 for the investment tax credit. While there are many other factors that drive when innovative individuals and innovative companies decide to locate, there are enough firms and workers on the margin that state taxes matter.

This article attempts to estimate the magnitude of corporate tax avoidance and personal tax evasion through offshore tax havens. US corporations book 20 percent of their profits in tax havens, a tenfold increase since the 1980; their effective tax rate has declined from 30 to 20 percent over the last 15 years, and about two-thirds of this decline can be attributed to increased international tax avoidance. Globally, 8 percent of the world's personal financial wealth is held offshore, costing more than $200 billion to governments every year. Despite ambitious policy initiatives, profit shifting to tax havens and offshore wealth are rising. I discuss the recent proposals made to address these issues, and I argue that the main objective should be to create a world financial registry.

In 1994, the education policy goal for the Chinese government was that the education expenditure as a share of GDP should be at least 4% of GDP. However, this educational policy goal has not been achieved until 2010. Another relevant social issue was related to teachers’ pay: there were 168 strike and protests occurred in almost every part of China from 2014 to 2015. In this article, we examine the impact of fiscal centralisation policies have on China’s educational spending and teachers’ salary. We use a county-level panel data for period of 2001 to 2005 and apply a quasi-experiment. This study finds evidence that fiscally-centralising policies, exemplified by the Corporate Income Tax Reform passed in 2002, are one of the determinants that lead to less education expenditures and subsequently affect teachers’ merit salary.

The purpose of this study is to explain the justification for taxing corporate rents as a funding source for Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), and to calculate a normative corporate tax rate that takes into account rents for corporations, especially multinational corporations, and to recommend that the current corporate tax surcharge be used to finance social common capital. Considering global tax avoidance, we propose that many countries cooperate to raise their corporate taxes and finance SDGs. Aiming to calculate a normative corporate tax rate with rents for each country, we applied the total factor productivity method for calculating the markup rate, assumed long-term interest rates to be the marginal efficiency of capital, and developed a normative corporate tax rate calculation method. Using a Cobb–Douglas function in dynamic pseudo-competitive profit optimal conditions, we calculated the rents of 234 American corporations listed on the S&P 500 index. The normative tax rates from 1982 to 2014 for these companies are stable at 40 to 55%, whereas corporate income tax has gradually decreased from 40% to less than 30%. Thus, the amount lost due to the race to the bottom of corporate taxes can be used to finance the SDGs.

We develop and describe a new measure of long-run corporate tax avoidance that is based on the ability to pay a low amount of cash taxes per dollar of pre-tax earnings over long time periods. We label this measure the \"long-run cash effective tax rate.\" We use the long-run cash effective tax rate to examine (1) the extent to which some firms are able to avoid taxes over periods as long as ten years, and (2) how predictive one-year tax rates are for long-run tax avoidance. In our sample of 2,077 firms, we find there is considerable cross-sectional variation in tax avoidance. For example, approximately one-fourth of our sample firms are able to maintain long-run cash effective tax rates below 20 percent, compared to a sample mean tax rate of approximately 30 percent. We also find that annual cash effective tax rates are not very good predictors of long-run cash effective tax rates and, thus, are not accurate proxies for long-run tax avoidance. While there is some evidence of persistence in annual cash effective tax rates, the persistence is asymmetric. Low annual cash effective tax rates are more persistent than are high annual cash effective tax rates. An initial examination of characteristics of firms successful at keeping their cash effective tax rates low over long periods shows that they are well spread across industries but with some clustering.

We model and estimate the incidence of the corporate income tax under imperfect competition. Identification comes from variation in effective marginal tax rates in the United States across industries and time. Our empirical results suggest that labor bears a significant portion of the burden of the corporate income tax. In addition, we find that the elasticity of wages with respect to the corporate marginal effective tax rate increases with industry concentration. Over all industries, our estimates suggest that a $1.00 increase in corporate tax revenue decreases wages by approximately $0.60.

This article investigates whether market competition enhances the incentives of Chinese industrial firms to avoid corporate income tax. We estimate the effects of competition on the relationship between firms' reported accounting profits and their imputed profits based on the national income account. To cope with measurement errors and potential endogeneity, we use instrumental variables, exogenous policy shocks and other robustness analysis. We find robust and consistent evidence that firms in more competitive environments engage in more tax avoidance activities. Moreover, all else equal, firms in relatively disadvantageous positions demonstrate stronger incentives to avoid corporate income tax.

Using confidential tax shelter and tax return data obtained from the Internal Revenue Service, this study develops and validates an expanded model for inferring the likelihood that a firm engages in a tax shelter. Results show that tax shelter likelihood is positively related to subsidiaries located in tax havens, foreign-source income, inconsistent book-tax treatment, litigation losses, use of promoters, profitability, and size, and negatively related to leverage. Supplemental tests show that total book-tax differences (BTDs) and the contingent tax liability reserve are significantly related to tax shelter usage, while discretionary permanent BTDs and long-run cash effective tax rates are not. Finally, the model is weaker, yet still significant, in the FIN 48 disclosure environment. This research provides investors and policymakers with an extended, validated measure to calculate the presence of extreme cases of corporate tax aggressiveness. Such information could also aid analysts and other tax and non-tax researchers in assessing the benefits and risks of firm behavior.

This paper provides estimates of federal tax rates by income groups in the United States since 1960, with special emphasis on very top income groups. We include individual and corporate income taxes, payroll taxes, and estate and gift taxes. The progressivity of the U.S. federal tax system at the top of the income distribution has declined dramatically since the 1960s. This dramatic drop in progressivity is due primarily to a drop in corporate taxes and in estate and gift taxes combined with a sharp change in the composition of top incomes away from capital income and toward labor income. The sharp drop in statutory top marginal individual income tax rates has contributed only moderately to the decline in tax progressivity. International comparisons confirm that is it critical to take into account other taxes than the individual income tax to properly assess the extent of overall tax progressivity, both for time trends and for cross-country comparisons. The pattern for the United Kingdom is similar to the U.S. pattern. France had less progressive taxes than the United States or the United Kingdom in 1970 but has experienced an increase in tax progressivity and has now a more progressive tax system than the United States or the United Kingdom.