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How coups happen and why half of them fail. While coups drive a majority of regime changes and are responsible for the overthrow of many democratic governments, there has been very little empirical work on the subject. Seizing Power develops a new theory of coup dynamics and outcomes, drawing on 300 hours of interviews with coup participants and an original dataset of 471 coup attempts worldwide from 1950 to 2000. Naunihal Singh delivers a concise and empirical evaluation, arguing that understanding the dynamics of military factions is essential to predicting the success or failure of coups. Singh draws on an aspect of game theory known as a coordination game to explain coup dynamics. He finds a strong correlation between successful coups and the ability of military actors to project control and the inevitability of success. Examining Ghana's multiple coups and the 1991 coup attempt in the USSR, Singh shows how military actors project an image of impending victory that is often more powerful than the reality on the ground. In addition, Singh also identifies three distinct types of coup dynamics, each with a different probability of success, based on where within the organization each coup originated: coups from top military officers, coups from the middle ranks, and mutinous coups from low-level soldiers.

How did the Republic of Venice go 486 years without a single coup d’état or coup attempt? Is it the same force that has generated stability in Britain since 1746, in the United States since 1776, and in a growing number of nations around the world? This thoughtful and engaging book offers the first extended analysis of coups, which have played a central role in world history and politics. Ivan Perkins draws on his extensive research on the history and inner workings of coups to explain how a small but growing number of nations have escaped chronic violence and built states with perpetually peaceful transfers of power. Readers will explore the rising coup-free zone, from the baroque system behind 486 years of stability in Venice to today’s heavy-handed but efficient regime in Singapore. Along the way, the author recounts some of history’s most gripping political intrigues: the spontaneous street uprising against King Tarquinius Superbus in Rome, the machinations of Bengali officials that launched the British Empire, and the fears that compelled General Pinochet to join a coup and become dictator of Chile. Perkins examines in detail the first three coup-free states. He argues against the standard theory of stability, which holds that professional military officers are so thoroughly trained in ethics and civilian control that leading a coup would be unthinkable. Instead, he proposes a new and simpler interpretation: stability is founded not on ethics but on law. An impartial rule of law weakens personal loyalty relationships, especially within the political-military establishment, and inhibits grand criminal conspiracies. The book concludes with a new explanation for the “democratic peace” and shows why coup-free states form enduring alliances.

In mid-nineteenth-century Mexico, garrisons, town councils, state legislatures, and an array of political actors, groups, and communities began aggressively petitioning the government at both local and national levels to address their grievances. Often viewed as a revolt or a coup d'état, thesepronunciamientoswere actually a complex form of insurrectionary action that relied first on the proclamation and circulation of a plan that listed the petitioners' demands and then on endorsement by copycat pronunciamientos that forced the authorities, be they national or regional, to the negotiating table. InIndependent Mexico, Will Fowler provides a comprehensive overview of the pronunciamiento practice following the Plan of Iguala. This fourth and final installment in, and culmination of, a larger exploration of the pronunciamiento highlights the extent to which this model of political contestation evolved. The result of more than three decades of pronunciamiento politics was the bloody Civil War of the Reforma (1858-60) and the ensuing French Intervention (1862-67). Given the frequency and importance of the pronunciamiento, this book is also a concise political history of independent Mexico.

This book examines the role of war in shaping the African state, society, and economy. Richard J. Reid helps students understand different patterns of military organization through Africa's history; the evolution of weaponry, tactics, and strategy; and the increasing prevalence of warfare and militarism in African political and economic systems. He traces shifts in the culture and practice of war from the first millennium into the era of the external slave trades, and then into the nineteenth century, when a military revolution unfolded across much of Africa. The repercussions of that revolution, as well as the impact of colonial rule, continue to this day. The frequency of coups d'états and civil war in Africa's recent past is interpreted in terms of the continent's deeper past.

The author names names, and explores how British influence aggravated indigenous rivalries. He shows how various factions in the military were able to hold onto power and resist civil and international pressure for democratic governance by exploiting the country?s oil wealth and ethnic divisions to its advantage.Africa is more and more in the headlines as developed countries ? and China ? clash over the need for the continent?s resources. Yet there are few serious books to help us understand any aspect of the never-ending cascade of wars and conflicts. Other titles on Nigeria are mostly children?s books or travel guides, with the exception of Daniel Jordan Smith?s A Culture of Corruption. The current work focuses specifically on the social tensions, the motivations and the methods of the series of coups that rent Nigeria.

Developments in International Law and Policy: Political Violence and the International Community considers how the international community practice of responding to political violence has influenced the international law perspective.

This book gathers together a handful of memoirs of the tragic events in Fiji from may 19, 2000, when the democratically elected multiracial government was hijacked by a group of armed gunmen led by George Speight, and held hostage for fifty days.

The 12 September 1980 coup represented a \"milestone\" in Turkey, the consequences of which have shadowed the lives of the peoples of Turkey for more than thirty years. The coup was instrumental in the profound economic, political and social transformation of the country, while, on the other hand, it aimed at destroying any public opposition deemed likely to jeopardise the course of this transformation. The remembrance of the period as laden with experiences of profound transformation, alongsid.

Operations targeted against senior enemy leaders have long been viewed as a potential means of shaping the policy and behavior of enemy states. As a result, the United States has launched a variety of overt and covert operations in efforts to attack enemy leaders directly, facilitate their overthrow by coup or rebellion, or secure their ouster through external invasion. This book examines a number of leadership attacks from World War II to the present to offer insights into the comparative efficacy of various forms of leadership attacks, their potential coercive and deterrent value, and the possible unintended consequences of their ill-considered use. The book concludes that direct attacks, coups, and rebellions have met with only limited success and, even when successful, have sometimes yielded counterproductive results. Moreover, neither direct attacks nor coups have been of significant coercive or deterrent value, although rebellions have at times provided useful negotiating leverage. By contrast, external invasions have proved to be more efficacious both in shaping the targeted countries' policy and behavior and in exerting coercive effects. The book concludes by outlining the likely conditions under which future leadership attacks are likely to be sanctioned and by delineating the prerequisites of effective use of air power in such contexts.

Military coups have posed a persistent threat to political stability in Africa, undermining democratization efforts, igniting insurgencies, and leading to years of devastating military governance. Initial cross-national studies found little consistent evidence linking ethnicity to coups, leading recent formal and statistical work on coup risk and coup-proofing to largely ignore ethnic politics. This article, however, argues that in two important contexts of African political development—decolonization and democratization—ethnic politics are critical to understanding the occurrence of coups. Both case study evidence and statistical analysis of original data on African military history and ethnic politics reveal that practices of ethnic manipulation within security institutions have driven coup attempts. When leaders attempt to build ethnic armies, or dismantle those created by their predecessors, they provoke violent resistance from military officers.