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Cumulative impact zones (CIZs) are a discretionary policy lever available to local government, used to restrict the availability of alcohol in areas deemed already saturated. Despite little evidence of their effect, over 200 such zones have been introduced. This study explores the impact of three CIZs on the licensing of venues in the London Borough of Southwark. Using 10 years of licensing data, we examined changes in the issuing of licences on the introduction of three CIZs within Southwark, relative to control areas. The number of licence applications made (N = 1110), the number issued, and the proportion objected to, were analysed using negative binomial regression. In one area tested, CIZ implementation was associated with 119% more licence applications than control areas (incidence rate ratios (IRR) = 2.19, 95% confidence intervals (CI): 1.29-3.73, P = 0.004) and 133% more licences granted (IRR = 2.33, 95% CI: 1.31-4.16, P = 0.004). No significant effect was found for the other two areas. CIZs were found to have no discernible effect on the relative proportion of licence applications receiving objections. CIZs are proposed as a key lever to limit alcohol availability in areas of high outlet density. We found no evidence that CIZ establishment reduced the number of successful applications in Southwark.

Choi, H.-J.; Cho, S.-J.; Hwang, T.; Nam, J., and Hwang C.S., 2021. Cumulative impact assessment for marine spatial planning: A case study of the Gyeonggi Bay in South Korea. In: Lee, J.L.; Suh, K.-S.; Lee, B.; Shin, S., and Lee, J. (eds.), Crisis and Integrated Management for Coastal and Marine Safety. Journal of Coastal Research, Special Issue No. 114, pp. 360–364. Coconut Creek (Florida), ISSN 0749-0208. Cumulative impact assessment (CIA) techniques for marine spatial planning (MSP) exist in Europe and North America. Effective MSP requires a process for evaluating the effects of human activities on marine ecosystems, that is, a CIA. In Korea, MSP has progressively been developed for waters since the enactment of an MSP law (Act on Marine Spatial Planning and Management) in 2019. This study aims to perform the first CIA for Korea, evaluate its limitations, and assess alternatives for an operational MSP. This study involves an extensive review of the literature, followed by an assessment of the cumulative impact of human activities on the marine ecosystem in Gyeonggi Bay, Korea. Information on the marine ecosystems and influencing activities was collected, and the concept of the activity–pressure–ecosystem relationships adopted. The results reveal high cumulative impact scores along the coast, where human activities are concentrated, with fishing activities accounting for the highest proportion (i.e., 60.3% for gillnet, trap, and stow-net fishing) of the total cumulative impact among the marine activities. The cumulative impact is confirmed to vary by activity depending on whether the weight of the marine ecosystem is applied. This study provides an overview for quantifying the cumulative impacts of marine activities within a spatial context. It also highlights the importance of adequately considering the collection and processing of data before CIA. In addition, the activity–pressure–ecosystem linkage concept must consider the conditions of the study area to improve the accuracy and reliability of CIA. Further, the analysis and mapping techniques for CIA require improvement. This study can be used as a guideline for developing and utilizing the CIA tool in countries and regions planning to adopt MSP.

The Great Barrier Reef World Heritage Area, Australia, covers over 348,000 km² of tropical marine ecosystems of global significance. In July 2015, the World Heritage Committee called attention to the cumulative impacts of climate change, poor water quality, and coastal development on the region's outstanding universal value, but stopped short of inscribing the Great Barrier Reef on the List of World Heritage in Danger. Restoring the region's values is hindered by an environmental decision‐making process that fails to incorporate cumulative impacts, including the climate change impacts of greenhouse gas emissions sourced from one of Australia's largest exports, thermal coal. We identify policy and processes that enable a more comprehensive consideration of the cumulative effects of coal mining by environmental decision‐makers. Implementing cumulative impact assessment requires a collaborative and transparent program of planning and monitoring independent of Government and mine proponents that evaluates local, regional, and global impacts. The future of the Great Barrier Reef depends on transformational change in the cumulative assessment of Australian coal mines.

In temperate Australia, wildfires are predicted to be more frequent and severe under climate change. This could lead to marked changes in tree mortality and regeneration in the region’s predominant eucalypt forests, which have been burned repeatedly by extensive wildfires in the period 2003–14. Recent studies have applied alternative stable state models to select ‘fire sensitive’ forest types, but comparable models have not been rigorously examined in relation to the more extensive ‘fire tolerant’ forests in the region. We review the effects of increasing wildfire frequency on tree mortality and regeneration in temperate forests of Victoria, south-eastern Australia, based on the functional traits of the dominant eucalypts: those that are typically killed by wildfire to regenerate from seed (‘obligate seeders’) and those that mostly survive to resprout (‘resprouters’). In Victoria, over 4.3 million ha of eucalypt forest has been burned by wildfire in the last decade (2003–14), roughly equivalent to the cumulative area burned in the previous 50 years (1952–2002; 4.4 million ha). This increased wildfire activity has occurred regardless of several advancements in fire management, and has resulted in over 350 000 ha of eucalypt forest being burned twice or more by wildfire at short (≤11 year) intervals. Historical and recent evidence indicates that recurrent wildfires threaten the persistence of the ‘fire sensitive’ obligate seeder eucalypt forests, which can facilitate a shift to non-forest states if successive fires occur within the trees’ primary juvenile period (1–20 years). Our review also highlights potential for structural and state changes in the ‘fire tolerant’ resprouter forests, particularly if recurrent severe wildfires kill seedlings and increase tree mortality. We present conceptual models of state changes in temperate eucalypt forests with increasing wildfire frequency, and highlight knowledge gaps relating to the development and persistence of alternative states driven by changes in fire regimes.

Emerging diseases are impacting animals under high‐density culture, yet few studies assess their importance to wild populations. Microparasites selected for enhanced virulence in culture settings should be less successful maintaining infectivity in wild populations, as once the host dies, there are limited opportunities to infect new individuals. Instead, moderately virulent microparasites persisting for long periods across multiple environments are of greatest concern. Evolved resistance to endemic microparasites may reduce susceptibilities, but as barriers to microparasite distributions are weakened, and environments become more stressful, unexposed populations may be impacted and pathogenicity enhanced. We provide an overview of the evolutionary and ecological impacts of infectious diseases in wild salmon and suggest ways in which modern technologies can elucidate the microparasites of greatest potential import. We present four case studies that resolve microparasite impacts on adult salmon migration success, impact of river warming on microparasite replication, and infection status on susceptibility to predation. Future health of wild salmon must be considered in a holistic context that includes the cumulative or synergistic impacts of multiple stressors. These approaches will identify populations at greatest risk, critically needed to manage and potentially ameliorate the shifts in current or future trajectories of wild populations.

Many ecological systems are now exposed to multiple stressors, and ecosystem management increasingly requires consideration of the joint effects of multiple stressors on focal populations, communities and ecosystems. In the absence of empirical data, ecosystem managers could use null models based on the combination of independently acting stressors to estimate the joint effects of multiple stressors. Here, we used a simulation study and a meta-analysis to explore the consequences of null model selection for the prediction of mortality resulting from exposure to two stressors. Comparing five existing null models, we show that some null models systematically predict lower mortality rates than others, with predicted mortality rates up to 67.5% higher or 50% lower than the commonly used Simple Addition model. However, the null model predicting the highest mortality rate differed across parameter sets, and therefore there is no general ‘precautionary null model’ for multiple stressors. Using a multi-model framework, we re-analysed data from two earlier meta-analyses and found that 54% of the observed joint effects fell within the range of predictions from the suite of null models. Furthermore, we found that most null models systematically underestimated the observed joint effects, with only the Stressor Addition model showing a bias for overestimation. Finally, we found that the intensity of individual stressors was the strongest predictor of the magnitude of the joint effect across all null models. As a result, studies characterizing the effects of individuals stressors are still required for accurate prediction of mortality resulting from multiple stressors.

AIM: To develop a standardized, quantitative method for mapping cumulative impacts of invasive alien species on marine ecosystems. LOCATION: The methodology is applied in the Mediterranean Sea but is widely applicable. METHODS: A conservative additive model was developed to account for the Cumulative IMPacts of invasive ALien species (CIMPAL) on marine ecosystems. According to this model, cumulative impact scores are estimated on the basis of the distributions of invasive species and ecosystems, and both the reported magnitude of ecological impacts and the strength of such evidence. In the Mediterranean Sea case study, the magnitude of impact was estimated for every combination of 60 invasive species and 13 habitats, for every 10 × 10 km cell of the basin. Invasive species were ranked based on their contribution to the cumulative impact score across the Mediterranean. RESULTS: The CIMPAL index showed strong spatial heterogeneity. Spatial patterns varied depending on the pathway of initial introduction of the invasive species in the Mediterranean Sea. Species introduced by shipping gave the highest impact scores and impacted a much larger area than those introduced by aquaculture and the Suez Canal. Overall, invasive macroalgae had the highest impact among all taxonomic groups. These results represent the current best estimate of the spatial variation in impacts of invasive alien species on ecosystems, in the Mediterranean Sea. MAIN CONCLUSIONS: A framework for mapping cumulative impacts of invasive alien species was developed. The application of this framework in the Mediterranean Sea provided a baseline that can be built upon with future improved information. Such analysis allows the identification of hotspots of highly impacted areas, and prioritization of sites, pathways and species for management actions.

Aim: A large body of knowledge exists on individual anthropogenic threats that have an impact on marine biodiversity in the Mediterranean Sea, although we know little about how these threats accumulate and interact to affect marine species and ecosystems. In this context, we aimed to identify the main areas where the interaction between marine biodiversity and threats is more pronounced and to assess their spatial overlap with current marine protected areas in the Mediterranean. Location: Mediterranean Sea. Methods: We first identified areas of high biodiversity of marine mammals, marine turtles, seabirds, fishes and commercial or well-documented invertebrates. We mapped potential areas of high threat where multiple threats are occurring simultaneously. Finally we quantified the areas of conservation concern for biodiversity by looking at the spatial overlap between high biodiversity and high cumulative threats, and we assessed the overlap with protected areas. Results: Our results show that areas with high marine biodiversity in the Mediterranean Sea are mainly located along the central and north shores, with lower values in the south-eastern regions. Areas of potential high cumulative threats are widespread in both the western and eastern basins, with fewer areas located in the south-eastern region. The interaction between areas of high biodiversity and threats for invertebrates, fishes and large animals in general (including large fishes, marine mammals, marine turtles and seabirds) is concentrated in the coastal areas of Spain, Gulf of Lions, north-eastern Ligurian Sea, Adriatic Sea, Aegean Sea, south-eastern Turkey and regions surrounding the Nile Delta and north-west African coasts. Areas of concern are larger for marine mammal and seabird species. Main conclusions: These areas may represent good candidates for further research, management and protection activities, since there is only a maximum 2% overlap between existing marine protected areas (which cover 5% of the Mediterranean Sea) and our predicted areas of conservation concern for biodiversity.

Most studies examining demographic disparities in the distribution of environmental burdens have examined only one burden at a time. Few have examined how multiple burdens are concentrated and distributed among the American population. The objective of this study was to examine how multiple (13) environmental burdens are concentrated and how concentrated burdens are associated with where vulnerable populations reside. We utilized nationally consistent data from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s EJScreen database. EJScreen includes 13 environmental burden indicators and five racial/ethnic and socioeconomic indicators. The concentration of environmental burdens was examined by taking into account both the intensity of individual burdens and the count of burdens exceeding specified intensity thresholds. Graphical and statistical analyses were used to determine how percentages of vulnerable populations varied as the intensity levels and counts of burdens exceeding specified intensity thresholds increased. We found that concentrations of vulnerable populations increase as intensity levels of individual environmental burdens increase and as the number of burdens exceeding specified intensity thresholds increases. In most cases these increases are monotonic and highly statistically significant. Among the five demographic categories examined, the strongest relationships were found for percent people of color, followed by percent with limited English. Weaker but statistically significant relationships were found between other socioeconomic categories and increases in the intensities and counts of environmental burdens. Until recently, nationally consistent data for multiple environmental burdens were not available. Applying the 13 environmental indicators in EJScreen demonstrates that a strong relationship exists between where multiple burdens are simultaneously concentrated and where vulnerable populations reside. That this relationship is stronger for racial/ethnic categories than for other socioeconomic categories reflects outcomes of a history of public policies that have segregated and disadvantaged certain populations in the U.S.

Marine aquaculture is expanding into deeper offshore environments in response to growing consumer demand for seafood, improved technology, and limited potential to increase wild fisheries catches. Sustainable development of aquaculture will require quantification and minimization of its impacts on other ocean‐based activities and the environment through scientifically informed spatial planning. However, the scientific literature currently provides limited direct guidance for such planning. Here, we employ an ecological lens and synthesize a broad multidisciplinary literature to provide insight into the interactions between offshore aquaculture and the surrounding environment across a spectrum of spatial scales. While important information gaps remain, we find that there is sufficient research for informed decisions about the effects of aquaculture siting to achieve a sustainable offshore aquaculture industry that complements other uses of the marine environment. As marine aquaculture expands into new offshore environments, diverse ecological considerations across a spectrum of spatial scales will be necessary to ensure sustainable outcomes. Using an ecological lens, we synthesize a broad multidisciplinary literature and provide recommendations for incorporating spatially explicit ecological and socioeconomic interactions into spatial planning for offshore aquaculture development.