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Economic coercion and currency crises in target countries
Despite significant research on the efficacy and inadvertent humanitarian and political effects of economic sanctions, surprisingly little is known about the possible economic and financial consequences of sanctions for target economies. Synthesizing insights from the currency crisis literature with sanctions scholarship, we argue that economic sanctions are likely to trigger currency collapses, a major form of financial crisis that impedes economic growth and prosperity. We assert that economic coercion instigates currency crises by weakening the economy and creating political risks conducive to speculative attacks by currency traders. To substantiate the theoretical claims, we use time-series cross-national data for the 1970–2005 period. The results from the data analysis lend support for the hypothesis that sanctions undermine the financial stability of target countries. The findings also indicate that the adverse effect of economic coercion on the financial stability of target economies is likely to be conditioned by the severity of the coercion and the type of actors involved in the implementation of sanctions. The findings of this article add to the sanctions literature demonstrating how economic coercion could be detrimental to the target economy beyond the immediate effect on trade and investment. It also complements and adds to the literature on political economy of currency crises that has so far overlooked the significant role that economic coercion plays in financial crises.
Journal Article
VOLATILITY SPILLOVERS IN EAST ASIAN FINANCIAL MARKETS: A MEM-BASED APPROACH
We model the interrelations of equity market volatility in eight East Asian countries before, during, and after the Asian currency crisis. Using a new class of asymmetric volatility multiplicative error models based on the daily range, we find that dynamic propagation of volatility shocks occurs through a network of interdependencies, and shocks originating in Hong Kong may be amplified in their transmission throughout the system, posing greater risks to the region than shocks originating elsewhere. Although this partly explains the severity of the currency crisis, we also find evidence that parameters shifted, making the system more unstable during the crisis.
Journal Article
The Use of Blanket Guarantees in Banking Crises
In episodes of significant banking distress or perceived systemic risk to the financial system, policymakers have often opted for issuing blanket guarantees on bank liabilities to stop or avoid widespread bank runs. In theory, blanket guarantees can prevent bank runs if they are credible. However, guarantee could add substantial fiscal costs to bank restructuring programs and may increase moral hazard going forward. Using a sample of 42 episodes of banking crises, this paper finds that blanket guarantees are successful in reducing liquidity pressures on banks arising from deposit withdrawals. However, banks' foreign liabilities appear virtually irresponsive to blanket guarantees. Furthermore, guarantees tend to be fiscally costly, though this positive association arises in large part because guarantees tend to be employed in conjunction with extensive liquidity support and when crises are severe.
eBook
This time is different
Throughout history, rich and poor countries alike have been lending, borrowing, crashing--and recovering--their way through an extraordinary range of financial crises. Each time, the experts have chimed, \"this time is different\"--claiming that the old rules of valuation no longer apply and that the new situation bears little similarity to past disasters. With this breakthrough study, leading economists Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff definitively prove them wrong. Covering sixty-six countries across five continents, This Time Is Different presents a comprehensive look at the varieties of financial crises, and guides us through eight astonishing centuries of government defaults, banking panics, and inflationary spikes--from medieval currency debasements to today's subprime catastrophe. Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff, leading economists whose work has been influential in the policy debate concerning the current financial crisis, provocatively argue that financial combustions are universal rites of passage for emerging and established market nations. The authors draw important lessons from history to show us how much--or how little--we have learned.
eBook
The crisis behind the Eurocrisis : the Eurocrisis as a multidimensional systemic crisis of the EU
The Crisis behind the Euro-Crisis encourages dialogue among scholars across the social sciences in an attempt to challenge the narrative that regarded the Euro-crisis as an exceptional event. It is suggested instead that the Euro-crisis, along with the subsequent crises the EU has come to face, was merely symptomatic of deeper systemic cracks. This book's aim is to uncover that hidden systemic crisis - the 'crisis behind the Euro-crisis'. Under this reading it emerges that what needs to be questioned is not only the allegedly purely economic character of the Euro-crisis, but, more fundamentally, its very classification as an 'emergency'. Instead, the Euro-crisis needs to be regarded as expressive of a chronic, dysfunctional, but 'normal' condition of the EU. By following this line of analysis, this book illuminates not only the causes of contemporary turbulences in the European project, but perhaps the 'true' nature of the EU itself.
Book
Dating Currency Crisis and Assessing the Determinants Based on Meta Fuzzy Index Functions
We use Meta Fuzzy Index Functions to date currency crises in Turkey over the period of January 1990 and October 2019 by aggregating ten different currency crisis indices. In order to assess the determinants of currency crises, we employed logit regression models based on four different groups of explanatory variables. We have found that change in real exchange rate among current account variables, central bank foreign assets over M1, foreign reserves over M1, growth of foreign reserves, growth of central bank foreign assets among capital account variables, credit growth and banking deposits over M2 among the banking variables, real interest rate, inflation rate, change in stock prices, industrial production index and public sector credit growth among the financial variables are significant determinants of currency crises. All of the significant variables except banking deposits over M2 are robust.
Journal Article