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The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is one of the most water-stressed parts of the world. In just over 25 years, between 1975 and 2001. Looking to the future, MENA's freshwater outlook is expected to worsen because of continued population growth and projected climate change impacts. The region's population is on the way to doubling to 700 million by 2050. Projections of climate change and variability impacts on the region's water availability are highly uncertain, but they are expected to be largely negative. To offer just one more example, rainfall and freshwater availability could decrease by up to 40 percent for some MENA countries by the end of this century. The urgent challenge is how to adapt to the future as illustrated by these numbers and how to turn the region's economy onto a sustainable path. This volume suggests new ways of thinking about the complex changes and planning needed to achieve this. New thinking will mean making better use of desert land, sun, and salt water the abundant riches of the region which can be harnessed to underpin sustainable growth. More mundane, but just as important, new thinking will also mean planning for dramatically better management of the water already available. Right now, water is very poorly managed in MENA. Inefficiencies are notorious in agriculture, where irrigation consumes up to 81 percent of extracted water. Similarly, municipal and industrial water supply systems have abnormally high losses, and most utilities are financially unsustainable. In addition, many MENA countries overexploit their fossil aquifers to meet growing water demand. None of this is sustainable while water resources decline. This volume hopes to add to the ongoing thinking and planning by presenting methodologies to address the water demand gap. It assesses the viability of desalination powered by renewable energy from economic, social, technical, and environmental viewpoints, and it reviews initiatives attempting to make renewable energy desalination a competitively viable option. The authors also highlight the change required in terms of policy, financing, and regional cooperation to make this alternative method of desalination a success. And as with any leading edge technology, the conversation here is of course about scale, cost, environmental impact, and where countries share water bodies plain good neighborly behavior.

As the world demand for energy continues to grow, a big question is where will all the energy come from and what will the price tag be. With such enormous sums needed, public-private partnerships (PPPs) could play a big role. But the financial crisis has raised worries about funding, and much is still not known about how best to attract PPPs. This report reviews the evidence to date with sectoral reforms and considers different approaches in varying circumstances to help outline the potential role of the private and public sector in: 1) strengthening the corporate governance of private and public utilities; 2) helping governments to establish legal, regulatory, contractual, and fiscal frameworks; and 3) improved market governance to attract private investment. Chapter one reviews the impact of the recent financial crisis on PPP investment compared with what happened in earlier financial crises. It also looks out the latest projections for additional power sector investment needed because of climate change and the possible sources of financing. Chapter two examines how PPP investment in the power sector has fared. It also gives the results of an econometric study that explores which types of incentives and variables matter most to PPPs when they are weighing entering the power sector, especially in renewables, and what influences the ongoing level of investment. The idea is to provide a powerful benchmarking tool at the sector and country levels against which governments and policy makers can evaluate progress on this issue. Chapter three examines four case studies-in China, Brazil, Peru, and Mexico-to identify, disseminate, and promote best practices on alternative ways to attract PPPs.

Large and growing subsidies to residential consumers in Mexico have become a major policy concern. This report explains the growth of subsidies, the current distribution of subsidies across income classes, and uses utility and household survey data to simulate how alternative subsidy mechanisms could improve distributional and fiscal performance. The goal is to help inform discussion in Mexico about how to reduce subsidies and redirect them toward the poor. The findings also offer lessons for other countries that are planning tariff reforms in their electricity sectors.

Based on a method to reduce energy consumption suggested in a real energy audit carried out in an industrial plant located in Poznań (city in Poland), the potential of using photovoltaic (PV) panels as wall cladding was analyzed, in order to reduce energy (electric and thermal) consumption and financial expenditure. The authors’ concept of using building integrated photovoltaic installation (BIPV) was presented and tested. This study checked whether the presence of PV modules would also affect heat transfer through the external wall of the building on which the installation is located. The analysis consisted of determining, for two variants, the heat transfer coefficients across the partition, in order to estimate the potential thermal energy savings. The first variant concerned the existing state, i.e., heat transfer through the external wall of the building, while the second included an additional partition layer in the form of photovoltaic panels. As a result, the use of panels as wall cladding allowed the improvement of the thermal parameters of the building wall (by increasing the thermal resistance of the wall), and the reduction of gas consumption for heating. The panels also generate electricity for the factory’s own needs. Payback time, compared to calculations which do not include changes in thermal parameters, was shortened from 14 to 11 years. The main reason for this is that gas consumption is reduced due to the improved heat transfer coefficient of the wall and the reduction of the heat loss of the facility. This aspect is usually overlooked when considering photovoltaic installations and, as argued by this paper, can be important.

Tajikistan's electricity system is in a state of crisis. Approximately 70 percent of the Tajik people suffer from extensive shortages of electricity during the winter. These shortages, estimated at about 2,700 GWh, about a quarter of winter electricity demand, impose economic losses estimated at over United States (US) 200 million dollars per annum or 3 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The electricity shortages have not been addressed because investments have not been made in new electricity supply capacity and maintenance of existing assets has not improved. The financial incentive for electricity consumers to reduce their consumption is inadequate as electricity prices are among the lowest in the world. Without prompt action to remedy the causes of Tajikistan's electricity crisis and with growing demand, the shortages could increase to about 4,500 GWh by 2016 (over a third of winter electricity demand) or worse. The World Bank undertook this study to assist the Government of Tajikistan (GoT) in finding ways to overcome the current electricity shortages and establish a sound basis for meeting the growing electricity demand in Tajikistan. The study focuses on the investments and policy reforms needed between now and 2020 to strengthen the financial, technical and institutional capacity of the Tajik power sector and prepare the GoT for undertaking a major expansion of power supply capacity. The study excludes large hydropower plants with storage, given their complexity and global experience that such projects are subject to delays. The winter electricity shortages are caused by a combination of low hydropower output during winter when river flows are low and high demand driven by heating needs. The GoT should focus its immediate attention on three ways to eliminate the current winter power shortages: 1) ambitious energy efficiency plans to reduce uneconomic power usage; 2) new dual-fired thermal power supply to complement the existing hydropower supply during winter; and 3) increased energy imports to leverage surplus electricity supply in neighboring countries.

The author reviews trends in rural electrification over the past 30 years in Sub-Saharan Africa. In particular, it is shown that motivations for rural electrification programs have evolved significantly over the years, following changes in development paradigms. The author finds, however, that knowledge of the impact of this has only marginally improved: low connection rates and weak productive utilization identified in the 1980s remain true today, and impacts on such dimensions as health, education, or income, though often used to justify projects, are largely undocumented. Indeed impact evaluations are methodologically challenging in the field of infrastructures and have been limited thus far. Nevertheless examples of recent or ongoing impact evaluations of rural electrification programs offer promising avenues for identifying both the effect of electricity per se and the relative effectiveness of approaches to promoting it.

This study investigates the behaviour of residential demand for electricity, employing a pseudo-panel methodology. The case of Greece, over the period 2009–2018, is taken as an example for our empirical investigation. The empirical analysis uses annual household panel data for the construction of 330 cohorts. The specification of cohorts is based on the date of birth, education level and geographical location of the head of the household. The econometric analysis is carried out using static and dynamic specifications and a quantile regression model. The results show that residential demand for electricity is price and income inelastic, both in the short and the long run. Electricity and heating oil appear to be complementary energy sources, while the household size and the education level are important determinants of residential demand for electricity. Income status has a marginal effect on demand for electricity, and the impact of urbanisation is insignificant. The quantile regression results show that, as the level of electricity use increases, demand for electricity becomes less income responsive and more price responsive. Our results show that a mix of structural energy measures along with economic policies could result in a decrease in electricity use and improve energy efficiency.

Accurate electricity demand forecasting for a short horizon is very important for day-to-day control, scheduling, operation, planning, and stability of the power system. The main factors that affect the forecasting accuracy are deterministic variables and weather variables such as types of days and temperature. Due to the tropical climate of Thailand, the marginal impact of weather variables on electricity demand is worth analyzing. Therefore, this paper primarily focuses on the impact of temperature and other deterministic variables on Thai electricity demand. Accuracy improvement is also considered during model design. Based on the characteristics of demand, the overall dataset is divided into four different subgroups and models are developed for each subgroup. The regression models are estimated using Ordinary Least Square (OLS) methods for uncorrelated errors, and General Least Square (GLS) methods for correlated errors, respectively. While Feed Forward Artificial Neural Network (FF-ANN) as a simple Deep Neural Network (DNN) is estimated to compare the accuracy with regression methods, several experiments conducted for determination of training length, selection of variables, and the number of neurons show some major findings. The first finding is that regression methods can have better forecasting accuracy than FF-ANN for Thailand’s dataset. Unlike much existing literature, the temperature effect on Thai electricity demand is very interesting because of their linear relationship. The marginal impacts of temperature on electricity demand are also maximal at night hours. The maximum impact of temperature during night hours happens at 11 p.m., is 300 MW/ ° C, about 4 % rise in demand while during day hours, the temperature impact is only 10 MW/ ° C to 200 MW/ ° C about 1.4 % to 2.6 % rise.

Purpose. Taking into account the factor of randomness of social processes when forecasting the demand for electric energy to reduce the error. Methodology. Apparatus of mathematical statistics, linear programming methods, fuzzy set theory and expert assessment methods, scale theory, Bayesian approach to forecasting models, computer modeling. Findings. The dynamics of consumption of electric energy for different periods of time is analyzed, the influence of the pandemic factor on the process of formation of demand for electric energy is established. A verbal-numerical scale has been developed for a comprehensive assessment of the impact on the demand for electric energy of such a complex social phenomenon as a pandemic. A model for forecasting the demand for electrical energy was formed using the Bayesian approach and an experts assessment, which made it possible to use retrospective data on electrical energy consumption and take into account the uncertainty of the social factor influencing the pandemic. Originality. The model for forecasting the demand for electrical energy has been further developed, which, unlike others, takes into account the factor of randomness of social processes and a verbal-numerical scale, which makes it possible to reduce the error in predicting the consumption of electrical energy. Practical value. The research results are useful for enterprises specializing in the generation, transmission and distribution of electrical energy to consumers. The presented results make it possible to reduce the error in forecasting the demand for electric energy, taking into account the factor of randomness of social processes.