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Global groundwater assessments rank Iran among countries with the highest groundwater depletion rate using coarse spatial scales that hinder detection of regional imbalances between renewable groundwater supply and human withdrawals. Herein, we use in situ data from 12,230 piezometers, 14,856 observation wells, and groundwater extraction points to provide ground-based evidence about Iran’s widespread groundwater depletion and salinity problems. While the number of groundwater extraction points increased by 84.9% from 546,000 in 2002 to over a million in 2015, the annual groundwater withdrawal decreased by 18% (from 74.6 to 61.3 km³/y) primarily due to physical limits to fresh groundwater resources (i.e., depletion and/or salinization). On average, withdrawing 5.4 km³/y of nonrenewable water caused groundwater tables to decline 10 to 100 cm/y in different regions, averaging 49 cm/y across the country. This caused elevated annual average electrical conductivity (EC) of groundwater in vast arid/semiarid areas of central and eastern Iran (16 out of 30 subbasins), indicating “very high salinity hazard” for irrigation water. The annual average EC values were generally lower in the wetter northern and western regions, where groundwater EC improvements were detected in rare cases. Our results based on high-resolution groundwater measurements reveal alarming water security threats associated with declining fresh groundwater quantity and quality due to many years of unsustainable use. Our analysis offers insights into the environmental implications and limitations of water-intensive development plans that other water-scarce countries might adopt.

The proper management of water resources plays a key role in the socioeconomic development of Armenia. On average, Armenia has sufficient water resources. Taking into account all available water resources in the country, Armenia has sufficient resources to supply approximately 3,100 cubic meters per capita per year well above the typically cited Falkenmark water stress indicator of 1,700 cubic meters per capita per year. These water resources are not evenly divided in space and time with significant seasonal and annual variability in river runoff. In order to address temporal variations in river runoff, the country has built 87 dams with a total capacity of 1.4 billion cubic meters. Most of these dams are single purpose, mainly for irrigation. Armenia also has considerable groundwater resources, which play an important role in the overall water balance. About 96 percent of the water used for drinking purposes and about 40 percent of water abstracted in the country comes from groundwater. Irrigation remains the largest consumptive user.

Exploitation of groundwater has greatly increased since the 1970s to meet the increased water demand due to fast economic development in China. Correspondingly, the regional groundwater level has declined substantially in many areas of China. Water sources are scarce in northern and northwestern China, and the anthropogenic pollution of groundwater has worsened the situation. Groundwater containing high concentrations of geogenic arsenic, fluoride, iodine, and salinity is widely distributed across China, which has negatively affected safe supply of water for drinking and other purposes. In addition to anthropogenic contamination, the interactions between surface water and groundwater, including seawater intrusion, have caused deterioration of groundwater quality. The ecosystem and geo-environment have been severely affected by the depletion of groundwater resources. Land subsidence due to excessive groundwater withdrawal has been observed in more than 50 cities in China, with a maximum accumulated subsidence of 2–3 m. Groundwater-dependent ecosystems are being degraded due to changes in the water table or poor groundwater quality. This paper reviews these changes in China, which have occurred under the impact of rapid economic development. The effects of economic growth on groundwater systems should be monitored, understood and predicted to better protect and manage groundwater resources for the future.

The Nairobi volcano-sedimentary regional aquifer system (NAS) of Kenya hosts >6 M people, including 4.7 M people in the city of Nairobi. This work combines analysis of multi-decadal in-situ water-level data with numerical groundwater modelling to provide an assessment of the past and likely future evolution of Nairobi’s groundwater resources. Since the mid-1970s, groundwater abstraction has increased 10-fold at a rate similar to urban population growth, groundwater levels have declined at a median rate of 6 m/decade underneath Nairobi since 1950, whilst built-up areas have increased by 70% since 2000. Despite the absence of significant trends in climatic data since the 1970s, more recently, drought conditions have resulted in increased applications for borehole licences. Based on a new conceptual understanding of the NAS (including insights from geophysics and stable isotopes), numerical simulations provide further quantitative estimates of the accelerating negative impact of abstraction and capture the historical groundwater levels quite well. Analysis suggests a groundwater-level decline of 4 m on average over the entire aquifer area and up to 46 m below Nairobi, net groundwater storage loss of 1.5 billion m3 and 9% river baseflow reduction since 1950. Given current practices and trajectories, these figures are predicted to increase six-fold by 2120. Modelled future management scenarios suggest that future groundwater abstraction required to meet Nairobi projected water demand is unsustainable and that the regional anthropogenically-driven depletion trend can be partially mitigated through conjunctive water use. The presented approach can inform groundwater assessment for other major African cities undergoing similar rapid groundwater development.

Population growth, economic development, and dietary changes have drastically increased the demand for food and water. The resulting expansion of irrigated agriculture into semi-arid areas with limited precipitation and surface water has greatly increased the dependence of irrigated crops on groundwater withdrawal. Also, the increasing number of people living in mega-cities without access to clean surface water or piped drinking water has drastically increased urban groundwater use. The result of these trends has been the steady increase of the use of non-renewable groundwater resources and associated high rates of aquifer depletion around the globe. We present a comprehensive review of the state-of-the-art in research on non-renewable groundwater use and groundwater depletion. We start with a section defining the concepts of non-renewable groundwater, fossil groundwater and groundwater depletion and place these concepts in a hydrogeological perspective. We pay particular attention to the interaction between groundwater withdrawal, recharge and surface water which is critical to understanding sustainable groundwater withdrawal. We provide an overview of methods that have been used to estimate groundwater depletion, followed by an extensive review of global and regional depletion estimates, the adverse impacts of groundwater depletion and the hydroeconomics of groundwater use. We end this review with an outlook for future research based on main research gaps and challenges identified. This review shows that both the estimates of current depletion rates and the future availability of non-renewable groundwater are highly uncertain and that considerable data and research challenges need to be overcome if we hope to reduce this uncertainty in the near future.

Groundwater resources are vital to ecosystems and livelihoods. Excessive groundwater withdrawals can cause groundwater levels to decline 1 – 10 , resulting in seawater intrusion 11 , land subsidence 12 , 13 , streamflow depletion 14 – 16 and wells running dry 17 . However, the global pace and prevalence of local groundwater declines are poorly constrained, because in situ groundwater levels have not been synthesized at the global scale. Here we analyse in situ groundwater-level trends for 170,000 monitoring wells and 1,693 aquifer systems in countries that encompass approximately 75% of global groundwater withdrawals 18 . We show that rapid groundwater-level declines (>0.5 m year −1 ) are widespread in the twenty-first century, especially in dry regions with extensive croplands. Critically, we also show that groundwater-level declines have accelerated over the past four decades in 30% of the world’s regional aquifers. This widespread acceleration in groundwater-level deepening highlights an urgent need for more effective measures to address groundwater depletion. Our analysis also reveals specific cases in which depletion trends have reversed following policy changes, managed aquifer recharge and surface-water diversions, demonstrating the potential for depleted aquifer systems to recover. Analysis of about 170,000 monitoring wells and 1,693 aquifer systems worldwide shows that extensive and often accelerating groundwater declines are widespread in the twenty-first century, but that groundwater levels are recovering in some cases.

Global food consumption drives irrigation for crops, which depletes aquifers in some regions; here we quantify the volumes of groundwater depletion associated with global food production and international trade. International food trade causes water depletion (Dalin 21403, Phys Letter) International trade is increasingly transporting 'hidden' resources and environmental factors from one country to another. For example, the water used to produce a spear of asparagus eaten in London might come from irrigation in South America. Similarly, pollution generated in China might be traceable to consumer demand in the United States. Carole Dalin et al . now extend this idea to the non-renewable groundwater that is consumed for agricultural trade. They find that 11 per cent of groundwater extraction is linked to agricultural trade, with Pakistan, the United States and India accounting for two-thirds of the global totals. The research reveals the degree to which food consumption in one country can lead to groundwater depletion in others, highlighting the need to better consider issues of sustainability and equity in the international food trade. Recent hydrological modelling 1 and Earth observations 2 , 3 have located and quantified alarming rates of groundwater depletion worldwide. This depletion is primarily due to water withdrawals for irrigation 1 , 2 , 4 , but its connection with the main driver of irrigation, global food consumption, has not yet been explored. Here we show that approximately eleven per cent of non-renewable groundwater use for irrigation is embedded in international food trade, of which two-thirds are exported by Pakistan, the USA and India alone. Our quantification of groundwater depletion embedded in the world’s food trade is based on a combination of global, crop-specific estimates of non-renewable groundwater abstraction and international food trade data. A vast majority of the world’s population lives in countries sourcing nearly all their staple crop imports from partners who deplete groundwater to produce these crops, highlighting risks for global food and water security. Some countries, such as the USA, Mexico, Iran and China, are particularly exposed to these risks because they both produce and import food irrigated from rapidly depleting aquifers. Our results could help to improve the sustainability of global food production and groundwater resource management by identifying priority regions and agricultural products at risk as well as the end consumers of these products.

Large, confined aquifer systems play a vital role in sustaining human settlements and industries in many regions. Understanding the sustainability of these water resources requires the evaluation of groundwater storage change. Direct in‐situ observation of groundwater storage is limited by the distribution and availability of groundwater level and aquifer storativity data. Here, we use and compare two auxiliary methods, applied at basin and sub‐basin scales, to assess groundwater storage changes in the Great Artesian Basin (GAB), one of the World's largest confined aquifer systems. The first, the groundwater budget, derives storage change as the residual of fluxes in and out of the GAB, assuming they are all accounted for and accurately estimated. The second uses time‐variable gravity data from GRACE satellites to estimate temporal changes in groundwater mass, assuming that all other components of the terrestrial water mass change detected by GRACE are correctly subtracted. Despite the depletion observed during the 20th century, groundwater storage is mostly stable during 2002–2022. An increase in storage is detected in the Surat sub‐basin, a major recharge area. This increase is attributed to an over‐representation of large recharge events during the study period and/or storage recovery following rehabilitation of free‐flowing bores. The approach consisting in disaggregating GRACE data assumes that water storage changes in confined aquifers is dominated by changes in the GAB, and as such, it may overestimate the increase in the GAB by incorrectly attributing the increase occurring in overlying aquifers to the GAB. In contrast, the recharge estimates used in the groundwater budgets do not account for flood recharge and might underestimate storage increase in the GAB. Plain Language Summary Monitoring groundwater storage in large, confined aquifers is often impossible as it requires large groundwater level and lithological data sets that are often unavailable. However, monitoring is crucial for assessing and managing the sustainability of this resource and manage it appropriately. This study uses and compares two auxiliary methods, applied at basin and sub‐basin scales, to assess groundwater storage changes in the Great Artesian Basin (GAB), one of the World's largest confined aquifer systems. The groundwater budget approach estimates water storage changes by adding up the amounts of groundwater that goes in and out of the aquifer system. The satellite gravimetry approach uses the temporal changes of Earth's gravity field to infer changes in groundwater mass. Both methods agree that, despite the depletion observed during the 20th century, groundwater storage in the GAB was mostly stable during 2002–2022. An increase in groundwater storage is detected near major recharge areas. It is attributed to an over‐representation of large recharge events during the study period and/or groundwater storage recovery following capping of free‐flowing bores. Key Points GRACE and groundwater budgets agree that water storage in the Great Artesian Basin was stable for the period 2002–2022 Increased storage in the Surat sub‐basin is attributed to bore rehabilitation and/or increased recharge during the study period Within the Surat sub‐basin, increased storage may be overestimated by GRACE and/or underestimated by the groundwater budgets

Increasing population, economic growth and changes in diet have dramatically increased the demand for food and water over the last decades. To meet increasing demands, irrigated agriculture has expanded into semi-arid areas with limited precipitation and surface water availability. This has greatly intensified the dependence of irrigated crops on groundwater withdrawal and caused a steady increase in groundwater withdrawal and groundwater depletion. One of the effects of groundwater pumping is the reduction in streamflow through capture of groundwater recharge, with detrimental effects on aquatic ecosystems. The degree to which groundwater withdrawal affects streamflow or groundwater storage depends on the nature of the groundwater–surface water interaction (GWSI). So far, analytical solutions that have been derived to calculate the impact of groundwater on streamflow depletion involve single wells and streams and do not allow the GWSI to shift from connected to disconnected, i.e. from a situation with two-way interaction to one with a one-way interaction between groundwater and surface water. Including this shift and also analysing the effects of many wells requires numerical groundwater models that are expensive to set up. Here, we introduce an analytical framework based on a simple lumped conceptual model that allows us to estimate to what extent groundwater withdrawal affects groundwater heads and streamflow at regional scales. It accounts for a shift in GWSI, calculates at which critical withdrawal rate such a shift is expected, and when it is likely to occur after withdrawal commences. It also provides estimates of streamflow depletion and which part of the groundwater withdrawal comes out of groundwater storage and which parts from a reduction in streamflow. After a local sensitivity analysis, the framework is combined with parameters and inputs from a global hydrological model and subsequently used to provide global maps of critical withdrawal rates and timing, the areas where current withdrawal exceeds critical limits and maps of groundwater and streamflow depletion rates that result from groundwater withdrawal. The resulting global depletion rates are compared with estimates from in situ observations and regional and global groundwater models and satellites. Pairing of the analytical framework with more complex global hydrological models presents a screening tool for fast first-order assessments of regional-scale groundwater sustainability and for supporting hydro-economic models that require simple relationships between groundwater withdrawal rates and the evolution of pumping costs and environmental externalities.

The North China Plain (NCP) has been suffering from groundwater storage (GWS) depletion and land subsidence for a long period. This paper collects data on GWS changes and land subsidence from in situ groundwater-level measurements, literature, and satellite observations to provide an overview of the evolution of the aquifer system during 1971–2015 with a focus on the sub-regional variations. It is found that the GWS showed a prolonged declining rate of −17.8 ± 0.1 mm/yr during 1971–2015, with a negative correlation to groundwater abstraction before year ~2000 and a positive correlation after ~2000. Statistical correlations between subsidence rate and the GWS anomaly (GWSA), groundwater abstraction, and annual precipitation show that the land subsidence in three sub-regions (Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei) represents different temporal variations due to varying driver factors. Continuous drought caused intensive GWS depletion (−76.1 ± 6.5 mm/yr) and land subsidence in Beijing during 1999–2012. Negative correlations between total groundwater abstraction and land subsidence exhibited after the 1980s indicate that it may be questionable to infer subsidence from regional abstraction data. Instead, the GWSA generally provides a reliable correlation with subsidence. This study highlights the spatio-temporal variabilities of GWS depletion and land subsidence in the NCP under natural and anthropogenic impacts, and the importance of GWS changes for understanding land subsidence development.