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Only a few empirical studies have analyzed the relationship between fiscal multipliers and the underlying state of the economy. This paper investigates this link on a country-by-country basis for the G7 economies (excluding Italy). Our results show that fiscal multipliers differ across countries, calling for a tailored use of fiscal policy. Moreover, the position in the business cycle affects the impact of fiscal policy on output: on average, government spending, and revenue multipliers tend to be larger in downturns than in expansions. This asymmetry has implications for the choice between an upfront fiscal adjustment versus a more gradual approach.

This paper provides a novel dataset of time-varying measures on the degree of countercyclicality of fiscal policies for advanced and developing economies between 1980 and 2021. The use of time-varying measures of fiscal stabilization, with special attention to potential endogeneity issues, overcomes the major limitation of previous studies and allows the analysis to account for both country-specific as well as global factors. The paper also examines the key determinants of countercyclicality of fiscal policy with a focus on factors as severe crises, informality, financial development and governance. Empirical results show that (i) fiscal policy tends to be more countercyclical during severe crises than typical recessions, especially for advanced economies; (ii) fiscal countercyclicality has increased over time for many economies over the last two decades; (iii) discretionary and automatic countercyclicality are both strong in advanced economies but acyclical (at times procyclical) in low-income countries; (iv) fiscal countercyclicality operates primarily through the expenditure channel, particularly for social benefits; and (v) better financial development, larger government size and stronger institutional quality are associated with larger countercyclical effects of fiscal policy. Our results are robust to various specifications and endogeneity checks.

The article discusses the determinants of fiscal policy in the times of COVID-19. Most economists share the opinion that fiscal packages are necessary to mitigate the health and economic costs of a pandemic. However, the scale of fiscal intervention and the types of fiscal policy instruments that should be used raise doubts. The aim of the article is to explore the factors determining the size and structure of fiscal packages which have been implemented globally in response to the crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. In addition, attention is drawn to the potential impact of fiscal intervention on public finance sustainability, bearing in mind that most governments have chosen to use fiscal support instruments to enhance consumption and investment following the COVID-19 hit, although the cross-country differences are evident both in the magnitude and composition of fiscal stimulus packages. A descriptive analysis was conducted along with a panel data analysis to examine the determinants of government fiscal support in response to the COVID-19 crisis. The empirical analysis is based on cross-sectional data from the International Monetary Fund, OECD and Eurostat. The sample consists of 40 countries representing advanced and emerging economies. Based on the panel analysis, it was found that the total fiscal stimulus packages depended mainly on the fiscal space. Fiscal intervention in countries with greater tax-collection capacity (such as Germany, United States, United Kingdom and Japan) was greater compared to others. A positive and statistically significant relationship between the average income level and the size of fiscal stimulus was also confirmed. Moreover, it turned out that countries with larger populations and higher fatality rates provided greater fiscal support for the COVID-19 pandemic.The empirical analysis expands the existing knowledge on the determinants of the fiscal policy implemented in response to the COVID-19 crisis under the conditions of low interest rates, when macroeconomic stabilization can only be ensured through fiscal stimulus programs.

The paper takes stock of the debate on the positive link between output volatility and the size of government-which reflects automatic stabilizers. After a survey of the literature, we show that the contribution of automatic stabilizers to output stability may have disappeared since the 1990s. However, econometric analysis suggests that the breakdown in the government size-volatility relationship largely reflects temporary developments (better monetary management and financial intermediation). Once these factors are taken into account, the stabilizing role of government size remains important although little extra stability can be gained by expanding public expenditure beyond 40 percent of GDP.

This paper relates to the literature on the possible effect of inflation targeting on fiscal discipline in developing countries. In particular, we present empirical evidence to address this issue based on the Colombian experience. This study relies on two main issues. The first is to verify whether the adoption of inflation targeting in Colombia affected the discretionary fiscal component in the period 2004–2014. The second issue is to analyze whether the monetary credibility amplified the effect of the monetary policy on changes in the discretionary fiscal component. The results denote that inflation targeting causes an impact on fiscal policy in Colombia. In particular, the greater monetary credibility the less change in discretionary fiscal component is observed.

Global financial crisis of 2008 and the Covid 19 led slowdown have brought Keynesian fiscal stabilization policies back to the forefront of all academic debates. But what the world is experiencing should be treated as an exceptional situation that should not be used to advance the case to fine-tune the economy every time using discretionary fiscal measures. The pre-crisis broad macroeconomic consensus still holds, and stabilization should first be left to monetary policy. On the fiscal front government should rely more on rule-based inbuilt stabilizers for short-term management of cyclical fluctuations in case of demand shocks and long-run fiscal policy should focus more on growth and developing enabling factors to attract more investment. Fiscal stabilizers on the expenditure side should be strengthened to provide an adequate safety net to economically vulnerable sections of the society.