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"DOLLAR"
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Our dollar, your problem : an insider's view of seven turbulent decades of global finance, and the road ahead
A leading economist explores the global rise of the U.S. dollar and shows why its future stability is far from assured.
BOOK
Dollar colonisation: The destructive policy implications of modern monetary theory
Modern monetary theory (MMT) argues that all governments that issue their own currency have the same fiscal and monetary policy space. This paper argues against this position. For MMT’s assumptions to be valid, MMT must abstract from the gravitational force of the US dollar that stems from it being backed by a mass of securities – an influence transmitted through international investment flows. Once the dollar’s gravitational force is recognised, it becomes clear that the huge size disparity separating the US financial market from those of other markets, and most notably those of the emerging market economies (EMEs), translates into an equally huge disparity regarding fiscal and monetary policy capacities. The strategic implications of recognising this disparity are that EME governments should, where possible, join their financial markets into regional blocs of sufficient size to give their regional currencies enough backing mass to allow them to resist the gravitational pull of the dollar. Only by pooling their currency sovereignty can EME governments retain some scope for pursuing macroeconomic policies independently of those pursued by the US government. Without doing so, if EME governments in countries with small financial markets follow MMT’s advice to retain their local currencies, this will condemn these currencies to entrapment in the dollar’s gravitational field and possibly outright dollar colonisation.
Journal Article
Paper soldiers : how the weaponization of the dollar changed the world order
\"The untold story of how one of America's most invincible institutions-the Treasury-has used the U.S. dollar to define America's role in the world, and our economic future\"-- Provided by publisher.
Book
DOLLAR FUNDING AND THE LENDING BEHAVIOR OF GLOBAL BANKS
A large share of dollar-denominated lending is done by non-U.S. banks, particularly European banks. We present a model in which such banks cut dollar lending more than euro lending in response to a shock to their credit quality. Because these banks rely on wholesale dollar funding, while raising more of their euro funding through insured retail deposits, the shock leads to a greater withdrawal of dollar funding. Banks can borrow in euros and swap into dollars to make up for the dollar shortfall, but this may lead to violations of covered interest parity when there is limited capital to take the other side of the swap trade. In this case, synthetic dollar borrowing also becomes expensive, which causes cuts in dollar lending. We test the model in the context of the Eurozone sovereign crisis, which escalated in the second half of 2011 and resulted in U.S. money market funds sharply reducing their exposure to European banks in the year that followed. During this period dollar lending by Eurozone banks fell relative to their euro lending, and firms who were more reliant on Eurozone banks before the Eurozone crisis had a more difficult time borrowing.
Journal Article
Paper promises : debt, money, and the new world order
A columnist for the \"Economist\" discusses the history of monetary booms and busts and describes the consequences of the enormous amounts of repayable debt racked up by the United States for the country and its citizens.
Book
Foreign Safe Asset Demand and the Dollar Exchange Rate
We develop a theory that links the U.S. dollar's valuation in FX markets to the convenience yield that foreign investors derive from holding U.S. safe assets. We show that this convenience yield can be inferred from the Treasury basis, the yield gap between U.S. government and currency-hedged foreign government bonds. Consistent with the theory, a widening of the basis coincides with an immediate appreciation and a subsequent depreciation of the dollar. Our results lend empirical support to models that impute a special role to the United States as the world's provider of safe assets and the dollar as the world's reserve currency.
Journal Article
Correction: Quantifying the handprint—Footprint balance into a single score: The example of pharmaceuticals
[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0229235.].
Journal Article
King dollar : the past and future of the world's dominant currency
\"An award-winning economic journalist on why the US dollar is positioned to maintain global primacy--and what that means for America and the world. Prophecies that the dollar will lose its status as the world's dominant currency have echoed for decades--and are increasing in volume. Cryptocurrency enthusiasts claim that Bitcoin or other blockchain-based monetary units will replace the dollar. Foreign policy hawks warn that China's renminbi poses a lethal threat to the greenback. And sound money zealots predict that mounting US debt and inflation will surely erode the dollar's value to the point of irrelevancy. Contra the doomsayers, Paul Blustein shows that the dollar's standing atop the world's currency pyramid is impregnable, barring catastrophic policy missteps by the US government. Recounting how the United States has wielded the dollar to impose devastating sanctions against adversaries, Blustein explains that although targets such as Russia have found ways to limit the damage, Washington's financial weaponry will retain potency long into the future. His message, however, is that America must not be complacent about the dollar; the great power that its supremacy confers comes with commensurate responsibility.\"-- Amazon.com.
BOOK
Macro-financial models of Canadian dollar interest rate swap yields
This paper analyzes the dynamics of Canadian dollar–denominated (CAD) interest rate swap yields. It applies autoregressive distributive lag (ARDL) models, using monthly time series data, to estimate the effects of the current short-term interest rate on interest rate swap yields after controlling for relevant macro-financial variables. It shows that the current short-term interest rate is a crucial driver of the CAD swap yields of different maturity tenors. Previous empirical research testing the Keynesian hypothesis, which maintains that the current short-term interest rate has a decisive influence on the long-term interest rate, has discerned similar patterns for interest rate swaps denominated in other currencies. Thus, the findings of this paper lend additional support to the Keynesian hypothesis by showing that the same pattern holds for CAD interest rate swap yields.
Journal Article