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One of the most persistent challenges in the space weather field is predicting the storm‐time response of the geospace without knowing the predicted drivers in the solar wind. Here, a new pattern recognition algorithm is developed to predict storm‐time Dst index from 1 hr to ∼4.5 days into the future. Storm‐time Dst patterns (or reference Dst) are obtained by a superposed epoch analysis of normalized Dst where storm‐time Dst is scaled or normalized so the minimum of the scaled Dst is fixed at −100 nT. About 148 isolated storms (minimum Dst ≤ −35 nT) between 2000 and 2014 were used. Two types of storms are identified with a fast (∼12 hr, Type‐1) and slow (∼30 hr, Type‐2) growth phase. Both Types show nearly identical recovery phases (∼5 days) and are likely driven by coronal mass ejection and corotating interaction region, respectively. This establishes the reference Dst profile. During the initial growth phase or any other phase of an isolated storm, Root Mean Squared Errors (RMSE) are calculated between the observed Dst (e.g., 5 data points) and a reference Dst. The Dst profile with the minimum RMSE serves as a forecast of the storm over the next 1 hr to ∼4.5 days. The algorithm has been tested for a few isolated storms and shows a good agreement between predicted and observed Dst with correlation coefficients up to ∼0.9 and RMSE as low as ∼5–10 nT. Caveats and a few future approvements are also discussed.

In this paper, we calculate Local Disturbance indices (LDi) using data from two equatorial observatories (Ascension ASC and Fúquene FUQ) to use them as Disturbance Storm-time (Dst) index proxies. We find that the LDi response to geomagnetic storms is different depending on the observatory’s local time at the storm onset. In order to explore this local time influence on the measurements on the ground at low latitudes, we build new proxies using two observatories located at approximately the same longitude, in order to balance measurements in the north and south averaging meridional and measuring only zonal variations. The average of the longitude pairs and Dst-index proxies from single observatories exhibit strong correlation to the Dst index ( ≥ 0.88) during active periods and a moderate correlation ( ≤ 0.5) during quiet periods. We find that the storm intensity is associated with local time. We confirm that the fastest variation in the geomagnetic field during the storm is recorded between dusk and midnight, while the region between dawn and noon records more moderate variations, sometimes missing the storm effects altogether. Our results show an azimuthal asymmetry of the magnetospheric ring current, becoming most intense on the night side of the dusk terminator during active periods. We propose a new configuration for local time Dst proxies including the use of equatorial observatories. This will get insights of the evolution of storms in an area where there are limited geomagnetic observatories. Graphical abstract

In 2024 May, the scientific community observed intense solar eruptions that resulted in a great geomagnetic storm and auroral extensions, highlighting the need to document and quantify these events. This study mainly focuses on their quantification. The source active region (AR; NOAA Active Region 13664) evolved from 113 to 2761 millionths of the solar hemisphere between May 4 and 14. NOAA AR 13664’s magnetic free energy surpassed 1033 erg on May 7, triggering 12 X-class flares on May 8–15. Multiple interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) were produced from this AR, accelerating solar energetic particles toward Earth. According to satellite and interplanetary scintillation data, at least four ICMEs erupted from AR 13664, eventually overcoming and combining each other. The shock arrival at 17:05 UT on May 10 significantly compressed the magnetosphere down to ≈5.04 R E and triggered a deep Forbush Decrease. GOES satellite data and ground-based neutron monitors confirmed a ground-level enhancement from 2 UT to 10 UT on 2024 May 11. The ICMEs induced exceptional geomagnetic storms, peaking at a provisional Dst index of −412 nT at 2 UT on May 11, marking the sixth-largest storm since 1957. The AE and AL indices showed great auroral extensions that located the AE/AL stations into the polar cap. We gathered auroral records at that time and reconstructed the equatorward boundary of the visual auroral oval to 29.°8 invariant latitude. We compared naked-eye and camera auroral visibility, providing critical caveats on their difference. We also confirmed global disturbances of the storm-enhanced density of the ionosphere.

By analyzing the variations of global electron content (GEC) during geomagnetic storm events, the ratio “GEC/GECQT” is found to be closely correlated with geomagnetic Kp index and time weighted Dst index, where GECQT is the quiet time reference value. Moreover, the GEC/GECQT will decrease with the increase of the solar flux F 10.7 index. Furthermore, we construct a linear model for storm-time response of GEC. Eighty-two storm events during 1999–2011 were utilized to calculate the model coefficients, and the performance of the model was tested using data of 8 storm events in 2012 by comparing the outputs of the model with the observed GEC values. Results suggest that the model can capture the characteristics of the GEC variation in response to magnetic storms. The component describing the solar activity influence shows a counteracting effect with the geomagnetic activity component; and the influence of Kp index causes an increase of GEC, while the time weighted Dst index causes a decrease of GEC.

On 10 May 2024, a super space storm—characterized by the Dst index plummeting to −412 nT and induced by a strong coronal mass ejection on the Sun—attacked the Earth's magnetosphere. This geomagnetic storm, according to the human record of Dst index, is the third‐strongest one throughout history (only slightly lower than those in 1989 and 2003). In such an extreme condition, how the magnetopause evolves and reforms remains unclear, because only a few spacecraft measurements were available in the dayside magnetosphere during previous events. Here, by utilizing in‐situ measurements of multiple spacecraft together with ground magnetometers, we for the first time determine the extreme compression of the magnetopause from higher than 10 RE down to 5 RE. This observation of such severe deformation is also consistent with the prediction of the theoretical model. This study provides crucial insights into the extreme behavior of the magnetopause during the influence of a superstorm. Plain Language Summary On 10 May 2024, a series of powerful solar eruptions hit Earth, causing an extreme geomagnetic storm. The Dst index during this storm, a measure of storm intensity, dropped to −412 nT, marking it as the third‐strongest event ever recorded. This caused significant degradations in GPS and radio communications. Here, using measurements from several spacecraft and ground‐based magnetometers, we observed the boundary of the Earth's magnetic field, known as the magnetopause, being compressed from over 10 RE down to just 5 RE. This standoff distance is also consistent with the prediction of theoretical model. These findings enhance our understanding of planetary magnetopauses under extreme conditions. Key Points We present joint observations from multiple satellites and ground magnetometers of the third‐strongest magnetic storm on record Space‐based observations confirm that the magnetopause was compressed below the geostationary orbit For the first time, we use ground‐based magnetometers to determine that the standoff distance of the magnetopause is approximately 5 RE

Several recurrent X-class flares from Active Region (AR) 13664 triggered a severe G5-class geomagnetic storm between 2024 May 10 and 11. The morphology and compactness of this AR closely resemble the AR responsible for the famous Carrington Event of 1859. Although the induced geomagnetic currents produced a value of the Dst index, probably 1 order of magnitude weaker than that of the Carrington Event, the characteristics of AR 13664 warrant special attention. Understanding the mechanisms of magnetic field emergence and transformation in the solar atmosphere that lead to the formation of such an extensive, compact, and complex AR is crucial. Our analysis of the emerging flux and horizontal motions of the magnetic structures observed in the photosphere reveals the fundamental role of a sequence of emerging bipoles at the same latitude and longitude, followed by converging and shear motions. This temporal order of processes frequently invoked in magnetohydrodynamic models—emergence, converging motions, and shear motions—is critical for the storage of magnetic energy preceding strong solar eruptions that, under the right timing, location, and direction conditions, can trigger severe space weather events on Earth.

A Forbush decrease (FD) is a sudden reduction of Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCRs) that is usually caused by intense solar wind transients, such as Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections (ICMEs) and Corotating Interaction Regions (CIRs). Using daily proton fluxes measured by AMS-02 between 2011 May and 2019 October, we identified 142 FD events with an automatic systematic analysis method. The properties of 47 FDs caused by ICMEs and of 54 FDs caused by CIRs were analyzed. We found that the rigidity dependence of the GCR flux decrease is generally better described by an exponential function for both ICME and CIR FDs. We also found that the FD Amplitude of ICME FDs has a moderate correlation with the minimum Dst index and a number of solar wind parameters, such as maximum temperature, pressure, and magnetic field. For CIR FD events, neither FD Amplitude nor Maximum Affected Rigidity had a significant correlation with solar wind parameters.

A geomagnetic storm affects the dynamics and composition of the ionosphere and also offers an excellent opportunity to study the plasma dynamics. In the present study, we have used the VHF scintillations data recorded at low latitude Indian station Varanasi (Geomag. latitude=14∘55′N, long. = 154∘E) which is radiated at 250 MHz from geostationary satellite UFO-02 during the period 2011–2012 to investigate the effects of geomagnetic storms on VHF scintillation. Various geomagnetic and solar indices such as Dst index, Kp index, IMF Bz and solar wind velocity (Vx) are used to describe the geomagnetic field variation observed during geomagnetic storm periods. These indices are very helpful to find out the proper investigation and possible interrelation between geomagnetic storms and observed VHF scintillation. The pre-midnight scintillation is sometimes observed when the main phase of geomagnetic storm corresponds to the pre-midnight period. It is observed that for geomagnetic storms for which the recovery phase starts post-midnight, the probability of occurrence of irregularities is enhanced during this time and extends to early morning hours.

On 2024 May 10–11, the strongest geomagnetic storm since 2003 November occurred, with a peak Dst index of −412 nT. The storm was caused by NOAA active region (AR) 13664, which was the source of a large number of coronal mass ejections and flares, including 12 X-class flares. Starting from about May 7, AR 13664 showed a steep increase in its size and (free) magnetic energy, along with increased flare activity. In this study, we perform 3D magnetic field extrapolations with the NF2 nonlinear force-free code based on physics-informed neural networks (R. Jarolim et al.). In addition, we introduce the computation of the vector potential to achieve divergence-free solutions. We extrapolate vector magnetograms from the Solar Dynamics Observatory’s Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager at the full 12 minute cadence from 2024 May 5 00:00 to 11 04:36 UT, in order to understand the AR’s magnetic evolution and the large eruptions it produced. A decrease in the calculated relative free magnetic energy can be related to solar flares in ∼90% of the cases, and all considered X-class flares are reflected by a decrease in the relative free magnetic energy. Regions of enhanced free magnetic energy and depleted magnetic energy between the start and end times of major X-class flares show spatial alignment with brightness increases in extreme-ultraviolet observations. We provide a detailed analysis of the X3.9-class flare on May 10, where we show that the interaction between separated magnetic domains is directly linked to major flaring events. With this study, we provide a comprehensive data set of the magnetic evolution of AR 13664 and make it publicly available for further analysis.

We report a citizen science‐motivated study on the cause of an unusually bright red aurora as witnessed from Hokkaido, Japan during a magnetic storm on 1 December 2023. The auroral brightness of 5 kR is unusual for the Dst index peak of only −107 nT. In spite of the moderate storm amplitude, the extremely high solar wind density of >50/cc and dynamic pressure of >25 nPa caused the aurora oval extension to 53 magnetic latitudes (L = 2.8). We discuss that the drift loss of the ring current particles across the small‐size magnetopause is important, and Hokkaido was at the right position to see the direct effect of the large particle injection of the storm‐time substorm. Plain Language Summary Citizen scientists identified an unusually bright red aurora from Hokkaido, Japan during a not‐so‐unusual magnetic storm on 1 December 2023. The large dynamic pressure, driven by large density of >50/cc, contributed to a small magnetopause and the effects observed at such low latitude. The hypothesis of this study is that the loss of ring current particles across the small‐size magnetopause played an important role. Also, we discuss that Hokkaido was at the right position to see the direct effect of storm‐time substorm. Key Points Unusually bright red aurora was witnessed by citizen scientists from Hokkaido, Japan on 1 December 2023 The magnetic storm amplitude was not unusually large, but the solar wind density was high (50/cc) Dynamic pressure and asymmetric evolution of the ring current are important to understand the cause of red‐aurora magnetic storm events