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Econometric Methods for Program Evaluation
Program evaluation methods are widely applied in economics to assess the effects of policy interventions and other treatments of interest. In this article, we describe the main methodological frameworks of the econometrics of program evaluation. In the process, we delineate some of the directions along which this literature is expanding, discuss recent developments, and highlight specific areas where new research may be particularly fruitful.
Journal Article
General diagnostic tests for cross-sectional dependence in panels
This paper proposes simple tests of error cross-sectional dependence which are applicable to a variety of panel data models, including stationary and unit root dynamic heterogeneous panels with short T and large N. The proposed tests are based on the average of pair-wise correlation coefficients of the OLS residuals from the individual regressions in the panel and can be used to test for cross-sectional dependence of any fixed order p, as well as the case where no a priori ordering of the cross-sectional units is assumed, referred to as CD(p) and CD tests, respectively. Asymptotic distribution of these tests is derived and their power function analyzed under different alternatives. It is shown that these tests are correctly centred for fixed N and T and are robust to single or multiple breaks in the slope coefficients and/or error variances. The small sample properties of the tests are investigated and compared to the Lagrange multiplier test of Breusch and Pagan using Monte Carlo experiments. It is shown that the tests have the correct size in very small samples and satisfactory power, and, as predicted by the theory, they are quite robust to the presence of unit roots and structural breaks. The use of the CD test is illustrated by applying it to study the degree of dependence in per capita output innovations across countries within a given region and across countries in different regions. The results show significant evidence of cross-dependence in output innovations across many countries and regions in the World.
Journal Article
Smart proxy modeling : artificial intelligence and machine learning in numerical simulation
\"Numerical simulation models are used in all engineering disciplines for modeling physical phenomena to learn how the phenomena work, and to identify problems and optimize behavior. Smart proxy models provide an opportunity to replicate numerical simulations with very high accuracy and can be run on a laptop within a few minutes, thereby simplifying the use of complex numerical simulations which can otherwise take tens of hours. This book focuses on smart proxy modeling and provides readers with all the essential details on how to develop smart proxy models using artificial intelligence and machine learning, as well as how it may be used in real-world cases. Covers replication of highly accurate numerical simulations using artificial intelligence and machine learning. Details application in reservoir simulation and modeling, and computational fluid dynamics. Includes real case studies based on commercially available simulators. Smart Proxy Modeling is ideal for petroleum, chemical, environmental, and mechanical engineers, as well as statisticians and others working with applications of data-driven analytics\"-- Provided by publisher.
Book
Panel Data Models With Interactive Fixed Effects and Multiple Structural Breaks
In this article, we consider estimation of common structural breaks in panel data models with unobservable interactive fixed effects. We introduce a penalized principal component (PPC) estimation procedure with an adaptive group fused LASSO to detect the multiple structural breaks in the models. Under some mild conditions, we show that with probability approaching one the proposed method can correctly determine the unknown number of breaks and consistently estimate the common break dates. Furthermore, we estimate the regression coefficients through the post-LASSO method and establish the asymptotic distribution theory for the resulting estimators. The developed methodology and theory are applicable to the case of dynamic panel data models. Simulation results demonstrate that the proposed method works well in finite samples with low false detection probability when there is no structural break and high probability of correctly estimating the break numbers when the structural breaks exist. We finally apply our method to study the environmental Kuznets curve for 74 countries over 40 years and detect two breaks in the data. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.
Journal Article
Supply chain analytics and modelling : quantitative tools and applications
\"An incredible volume of data is generated at a very high speed within the supply chain and it is necessary to understand, use and effectively apply the knowledge learned from analyzing data using intelligent business models. However, practitioners and students in the field of supply chain management face a number of challenges when dealing with business models and mathematical modelling. Supply Chain Analytics and Modelling presents a range of business analytics models used within the supply chain to help readers develop knowledge on a variety of topics to overcome common issues. Supply Chain Analytics and Modelling covers areas including supply chain planning, single and multi-objective optimization, demand forecasting, product allocations, end-to-end supply chain simulation, vehicle routing and scheduling models. Learning is supported by case studies of specialist software packages for each example. Readers will also be provided with a critical view on how supply chain management performance measurement systems have been developed and supported by reliable and accurate data available in the supply chain. Online resources including lecturer slides are available\"-- Provided by publisher.
Book
Quantile Co-Movement in Financial Markets: A Panel Quantile Model With Unobserved Heterogeneity
This article introduces a new procedure for analyzing the quantile co-movement of a large number of financial time series based on a large-scale panel data model with factor structures. The proposed method attempts to capture the unobservable heterogeneity of each of the financial time series based on sensitivity to explanatory variables and to the unobservable factor structure. In our model, the dimension of the common factor structure varies across quantiles, and the explanatory variables is allowed to depend on the factor structure. The proposed method allows for both cross-sectional and serial dependence, and heteroscedasticity, which are common in financial markets.
We propose new estimation procedures for both frequentist and Bayesian frameworks. Consistency and asymptotic normality of the proposed estimator are established. We also propose a new model selection criterion for determining the number of common factors together with theoretical support.
We apply the method to analyze the returns for over 6000 international stocks from over 60 countries during the subprime crisis, European sovereign debt crisis, and subsequent period. The empirical analysis indicates that the common factor structure varies across quantiles. We find that the common factors for the quantiles and the common factors for the mean are different.
Supplementary materials
for this article are available online.
Journal Article
A homogeneous approach to testing for Granger non-causality in heterogeneous panels
This paper develops a new method for testing for Granger non-causality in panel data models with large cross-sectional (N) and time series (T) dimensions. The method is valid in models with homogeneous or heterogeneous coefficients. The novelty of the proposed approach lies in the fact that under the null hypothesis, the Granger-causation parameters are all equal to zero, and thus they are homogeneous. Therefore, we put forward a pooled least-squares (fixed effects type) estimator for these parameters only. Pooling over cross sections guarantees that the estimator has a NT convergence rate. In order to account for the well-known “Nickell bias”, the approach makes use of the well-known Split Panel Jackknife method. Subsequently, a Wald test is proposed, which is based on the bias-corrected estimator. Finite-sample evidence shows that the resulting approach performs well in a variety of settings and outperforms existing procedures. Using a panel data set of 350 U.S. banks observed during 56 quarters, we test for Granger non-causality between banks’ profitability and cost efficiency.
Journal Article