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Why is the American system of death investigation so inconsistent and inadequate? In this unique political and cultural history, Jeffrey Jentzen draws on archives, interviews, and his own career as a medical examiner to look at the way that a long-standing professional and political rivalry controls public medical knowledge and public health.

In this study, smoking cessation that was accompanied by substantial weight gain was associated with an increased short-term risk of type 2 diabetes but did not mitigate the benefits of quitting smoking on reducing cardiovascular and all-cause mortality.

AbstractObjectiveTo examine the association of ultra-processed food consumption with all cause mortality and cause specific mortality.DesignPopulation based cohort study.SettingFemale registered nurses from 11 US states in the Nurses’ Health Study (1984-2018) and male health professionals from all 50 US states in the Health Professionals Follow-up Study (1986-2018).Participants74 563 women and 39 501 men with no history of cancer, cardiovascular diseases, or diabetes at baseline.Main outcome measuresMultivariable Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals for the association of ultra-processed food intake measured by semiquantitative food frequency questionnaire every four years with all cause mortality and cause specific mortality due to cancer, cardiovascular, and other causes (including respiratory and neurodegenerative causes).Results30 188 deaths of women and 18 005 deaths of men were documented during a median of 34 and 31 years of follow-up, respectively. Compared with those in the lowest quarter of ultra-processed food consumption, participants in the highest quarter had a 4% higher all cause mortality (hazard ratio 1.04, 95% confidence interval 1.01 to 1.07) and 9% higher mortality from causes other than cancer or cardiovascular diseases (1.09, 1.05 to 1.13). The all cause mortality rate among participants in the lowest and highest quarter was 1472 and 1536 per 100 000 person years, respectively. No associations were found for cancer or cardiovascular mortality. Meat/poultry/seafood based ready-to-eat products (for example, processed meat) consistently showed strong associations with mortality outcomes (hazard ratios ranged from 1.06 to 1.43). Sugar sweetened and artificially sweetened beverages (1.09, 1.07 to 1.12), dairy based desserts (1.07, 1.04 to 1.10), and ultra-processed breakfast food (1.04, 1.02 to 1.07) were also associated with higher all cause mortality. No consistent associations between ultra-processed foods and mortality were observed within each quarter of dietary quality assessed by the Alternative Healthy Eating Index-2010 score, whereas better dietary quality showed an inverse association with mortality within each quarter of ultra-processed foods.ConclusionsThis study found that a higher intake of ultra-processed foods was associated with slightly higher all cause mortality, driven by causes other than cancer and cardiovascular diseases. The associations varied across subgroups of ultra-processed foods, with meat/poultry/seafood based ready-to-eat products showing particularly strong associations with mortality.

AbstractObjectiveTo evaluate the association of changes in red meat consumption with total and cause specific mortality in women and men.DesignTwo prospective cohort studies with repeated measures of diet and lifestyle factors.SettingNurses’ Health Study and the Health Professionals Follow-up Study, United States.Participants53 553 women and 27 916 men without cardiovascular disease or cancer at baseline.Main outcome measureDeath confirmed by state vital statistics records, the national death index, or reported by families and the postal system.Results14 019 deaths occurred during 1.2 million person years of follow-up. Increases in red meat consumption over eight years were associated with a higher mortality risk in the subsequent eight years among women and men (both P for trend<0.05, P for heterogeneity=0.97). An increase in total red meat consumption of at least half a serving per day was associated with a 10% higher mortality risk (pooled hazard ratio 1.10, 95% confidence interval 1.04 to 1.17). For processed and unprocessed red meat consumption, an increase of at least half a serving per day was associated with a 13% higher mortality risk (1.13, 1.04 to 1.23) and a 9% higher mortality risk (1.09, 1.02 to 1.17), respectively. A decrease in consumption of processed or unprocessed red meat of at least half a serving per day was not associated with mortality risk. The association between increased red meat consumption and mortality risk was consistent across subgroups defined by age, physical activity, dietary quality, smoking status, or alcohol consumption.ConclusionIncreases in red meat consumption, especially processed meat, were associated with higher overall mortality rates.

Patients hospitalized for acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF) are at high risk for early mortality and rehospitalization. Risk stratification of ADHF using clinically available data on admission is increasingly important to integrate with clinical pathways. Our goal was to create a simple method of screening patients upon admission to identify those with increased risk of future adverse events. Using ASCEND-HF, a pragmatic clinical trial conducted in 398 sites globally, we developed and validated logistic regression risk models for (a) 30-day mortality/HF rehospitalization, (b) 30-day mortality/all-cause rehospitalization, (c) 30-day all-cause mortality, and (d) 180-day all-cause mortality. Fifty-one candidate variables were evaluated based on prior publications and clinical review. Final models were selected based on stepwise selection with entry and a staying criterion of P < .01. The 30-day mortality model was externally validated, and coefficients were converted to an additive risk score. Among 7,141 patients, the median age was 67 years, 34% were female, and 80% had a left ventricular ejection fraction <40%. The models had between 5 and 12 risk factors with c-indices ranging from 0.68 to 0.75. A simplified score, including age, systolic blood pressure, sodium, blood urea nitrogen, and dyspnea at rest, discriminated 30-day mortality risk from 0.5% (score 0) to 53% (score 10). Commonly available clinical variables provide simple risk stratification for clinical outcomes among patients with ADHF, and these models may be considered for integration into routine clinical care.

Background The relationship between the triglyceride-glucose (TyG) index and its derived index, the triglyceride glucose-waist height ratio (TyG-WHtR), with mortality and cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) in patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) remains unclear. Methods This study enrolled 6627 adults aged 18 and above diagnosed NAFLD from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES, 1999–2018). Binary weighted logistic regression analyses, cox proportional hazards model and restricted cubic spline (RCS) were used to analyze the relationship between TyG and TyG-WHtR with all-cause mortality, CVD mortality and CVDs. Mediation analysis explored the mediating role of glycohemoglobin, insulin and hypertension in the above relationships. Meanwhile, the incremental predictive value of the TyG index and TyG-WHtR was further assessed. Results Except for no significant association between the TyG index and both all-cause mortality and chronic heart failure (CHF), both TyG and TyG-WHtR exhibited significant positive correlations or trends of positive correlation with all-cause mortality, CVD mortality, total-CVD, CHF, coronary heart disease (CHD) and angina pectoris. For all-cause mortality, CVD mortality and CHF, TyG-WHtR was a better predictor than TyG (TyG-WHtR: HR 1.31, 95%CI 1.03–1.66; HR 2.22, 95%CI 1.42–3.47; OR 3.99, 95%CI 1.79–8.93). In contrast, TyG index demonstrated a stronger association with total-CVD, CHD and angina pectoris (TyG index: OR 2.00, 95%CI 1.26–3.18; OR 1.85, 95%CI 1.19–2.91; OR 2.93, 95%CI 1.23-7.00). RCS analysis showed that after adjusting for covariates, most of the aforementioned relationships were linear(P overall < 0.0001, P-nonlinear > 0.05), while the associations of the TyG index and TyG-WHtR with all-cause mortality and CHF were non-linear(P overall < 0.0001, P nonlinear < 0.05). The addition of the TyG index and TyG-WHtR to the basic model for outcomes improved the C-statistics, net reclassification improvement value, and integrated discrimination improvement value. Conclusions The predictive value of TyG or TyG-WHtR for all-cause mortality and cardiovascular risk in NAFLD patients was significant. The TyG index and TyG-WHtR might be valid predictors of cardiovascular outcomes of patients with NAFLD.

Abstract Rationale Since their approval, there has been no real-world or randomized trial evidence evaluating the effect of the antifibrotic medications pirfenidone and nintedanib on clinically important outcomes such as mortality and hospitalizations. Objectives To evaluate the clinical effectiveness of the antifibrotic medications pirfenidone and nintedanib in patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis. Methods Using a large U.S. insurance database, we identified 8,098 patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis between October 1, 2014 and March 1, 2018. A one-to-one propensity score–matched cohort was created to compare patients treated with antifibrotic medications (n = 1,255) with those not on treatment (n = 1,255). The primary outcome was all-cause mortality. The secondary outcome was acute hospitalizations. Subgroup analyses were performed to evaluate mortality differences by drug. Measurements and Main Results The use of antifibrotic medications was associated with a decreased risk of all-cause mortality (hazard ratio [HR], 0.77; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.62–0.98; P value = 0.034). However, this association was present only through the first 2 years of treatment. There was also a decrease in acute hospitalizations in the treated cohort (HR, 0.70; 95% CI, 0.61–0.80; P value <0.001). There was no significant difference in all-cause mortality between patients receiving pirfenidone and those on nintedanib (HR, 1.14; 95% CI, 0.79–1.65; P = 0.471). Conclusions Among patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis, antifibrotic agents may be associated with a lower risk of all-cause mortality and hospitalization compared with no treatment. Future research should test the hypothesis that these treatments reduce early, but not long-term, mortality as demonstrated in our study.

Background: Extremes of temperature are associated with short-term increases in daily mortality. Objectives: We set out to identify subpopulations and mortality causes with increased susceptibility to temperature extremes. Methods: We conducted a case-only analysis using daily mortality and hourly weather data from 50 U.S. cities for the period 1989-2000, covering a total of 7,789,655 deaths. We used distributions of daily minimum and maximum temperature in each city to define extremely hot days (≥ 99th percentile) and extremely cold days (≤ 1st percentile), respectively. For each (hypothesized) effect modifier, a city-specific logistic regression model was fitted and an overall estimate calculated in a subsequent meta-analysis. Results: Older subjects [odds ratio (OR) = 1.020; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.005-1.034], diabetics (OR = 1.035; 95% CI, 1.010-1.062), blacks (OR = 1.037; 95% CI, 1.016-1.059), and those dying outside a hospital (OR = 1.066; 95% CI, 1.036-1.098) were more susceptible to extreme heat, with some differences observed between those dying from a cardiovascular disease and other decedents. Cardiovascular deaths (OR = 1.053; 95% CI, 1.036-1.070), and especially cardiac arrest deaths (OR =1.137; 95% CI, 1.051-1.230), showed a greater relative increase on extremely cold days, whereas the increase in heat-related mortality was marginally higher for those with coexisting atrial fibrillation (OR = 1.059; 95% CI, 0.996-1.125). Conclusions: In this study we identified several subpopulations and mortality causes particularly susceptible to temperature extremes. This knowledge may contribute to establishing health programs that would better protect the vulnerable.

OBJECTIVESHereditary pancreatitis (HP), an autosomal dominant disease typically caused by mutations in PRSS1, has a broad range of clinical characteristics and high cumulative risk of pancreatic cancer. We describe survival and pancreatic cancer risk in the largest HP cohort in the US.MethodsHP probands and family members prospectively recruited from 1995 to 2013 completed medical and family history questionnaires, and provided blood for DNA testing. Overall survival (until 12/31/2015) was determined from the Social Security Death Index (SSDI), National Death Index (NDI), and family members. Cause of death was obtained from the NDI.Results217 PRSS1 carriers (181 symptomatic) formed the study cohort. The most frequently detected mutations were p.R122H (83.9%) and p.N29I (11.5%). Thirty-seven PRSS1 carriers (30 symptomatic, 7 asymptomatic) were deceased at conclusion of the study (5 from pancreatic cancer). Median overall survival was 79.3 years (IQR 72.2–85.2). Risk of pancreatic cancer was significantly greater than age- and sex- matched SEER data (SIR 59, 95% CI 19-138), and cumulative risk was 7.2% (95% CI 0–15.4) at 70 years.DiscussionWe confirm prior observations on survival and pancreatic cancer SIR in PRSS1 subjects. Although risk of pancreatic cancer was significantly high in these patients, its cumulative risk was much lower than previous reports.