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This article explores the macroeconomic consequences of fiscal consolidations whose timing and composition — either tax—or spending— based — are uncertain. We find that the composition of the fiscal consolidation, its duration, the monetary policy stance, the level of government debt, and expectations over the likelihood and composition of fiscal consolidations all matter in determining the extent to which a given consolidation is expansionary or successful in stabilising government debt. We argue that the conditions that could render fiscal consolidation efforts expansionary are unlikely to apply in the current economic environment.

When consumers carry multiple debts, how do they decide which debt to repay first? Normatively, consumers should repay the debt with the highest interest rate most quickly. However, because people tend to break complicated tasks into more manageable parts, and because losses are most distressing when segregated, the authors hypothesize that people will pay off the smallest loan first to reduce the total number of outstanding loans and achieve a sense of tangible progress toward debt repayment. To experimentally examine how consumers manage multiple debts, the authors develop an incentive-compatible debt management game, in which participants are saddled with multiple debts and need to decide how to repay them over time. Consistent with the hypothesis, four experiments reveal evidence of debt account aversion: Participants consistently pay off small debts first, even though the larger debts have higher interest rates. The authors also find that restricting participants' ability to completely pay off small debts, and focusing their attention on the amount of interest each debt has accumulated, helps them reduce overall debt more quickly.

The Homeland Investment Act provided a tax holiday for the repatriation of foreign earnings. Advocates argued the Act would alleviate financial constraints by reducing the cost to U.S. multinationals of accessing internal capital. This paper shows that repatriations did not increase domestic investment, employment, or R&D—even for firms that appeared to be financially constrained or lobbied for the holiday. Instead, a $1 increase in repatriations was associated with a $0.60 to $0.92 increase in share-holder payouts. Regulations intended to restrict such payouts were undermined by the fungibility of money. Results indicate that U.S. multinationals were not financially constrained and were well-governed.

The initial government debt-to-gross domestic product (GDP) ratio and the government's commitment play a pivotal role in determining the welfare-optimal speed of fiscal consolidation in the management of a debt crisis. Under commitment, for low or moderate initial government debt-to-GDP ratios, the optimal consolidation is very slow. A faster pace is optimal when the economy starts from a high level of public debt implying high sovereign risk premia, unless these are suppressed via a bailout by official creditors. Under discretion, the cost of not being able to commit is reflected into a quick consolidation of government debt. Simple monetary–fiscal rules with passive fiscal policy, designed for an environment with “normal shocks,” perform reasonably well in mimicking the Ramsey-optimal response to one-off government debt shocks. When the government can issue also long-term bonds—under commitment—the optimal debt consolidation pace is slower than in the case of short-term bonds only, and entails an increase in the ratio between long- and short-term bonds.

During the first decade of the 21st century, household FX loans spread in numerous countries in Central and Eastern Europe, where they caused serious macroeconomic and social problems with the spillover of the global financial crisis. Disregarding countries that joined the euro area, Hungary was the only state where household FX loans were completely phased out. The aim of the paper is to provide a structured presentation of the circumstances of the FX loan conversion in Hungary and to assess the potential risks related to the post FX loan period. The paper reviews the relevant international literature about the causes and the impact of unsecured FX lending in the household sector and analyses the phasing-out of the household FX loans in Hungary from the point of view of the legal considerations, the interest rate environment, the macroeconomic stability, the elbowroom in FX reserves and the timing of the process. The paper concludes that the conversion happened at the first date which was legally allowed and economically properly underpinned. The paper also presents that the central bank reacted to the new challenges of the phasing-out process with new macroprudential tools to prevent excessive indebtedness and over-lending, to reduce households' interest rate risks, and to ensure that customers have appropriate income reserves, in order to improve the quality and sustainability of lending to households in the future.

This paper assesses the determinants of the duration of debt reduction episodes in a large sample of countries over the last three decades using a survival model. Results show that increases in the primary balances are the main source of debt reduction. Expenditure-based fiscal adjustments are key for reducing the length of debt consolidation spells, including in the aftermath of financial crises. Political fragmentation and the proximity of elections make debt sustainability more difficult to achieve, while structural reforms that help spur growth decrease the duration of debt reduction. In contrast to previous findings, however, we show that when adjustment needs are large — as in many advanced economies today — fiscal consolidations that rely also on revenue-enhancing measures are more likely to accelerate debt reduction. We label it as the 'Rebalancing Adjustment Effect'. This result is particularly strong when countries experience a financial crisis.

We investigate the determinants of capital structure choice by analyzing the financing decisions of public firms in the major industrialized countries. At an aggregate level, firm leverage is fairly similar across the G-7 countries. We find that factors identified by previous studies as correlated in the cross-section with firm leverage in the United States, are similarly correlated in other countries as well. However, a deeper examination of the U.S. and foreign evidence suggests that the theoretical underpinnings of the observed correlations are still largely unresolved.

The marketing of debt consolidation loans is intended to offer a financial remedy to consumers faced with mounting debt and credit problems and unable to meet their monthly payments. The authors argue that debt consolidation loan marketing overemphasizes the short-term benefits (e.g., lower monthly payments) and downplays the considerable downside of these loans (e.g., longer repayment and more total interest paid). Two experiments demonstrate that a financial literacy intervention combining information about loans and lenders can help consumers understand and respond to debt consolidation loan marketing (whereas a basic financial numeracy intervention does not). Implications for consumers, marketers, public policy makers, and researchers who work in the area of financial literacy are discussed.

This paper uses the National Institute Global Econometric Model, NiGEM to assess the economic impact of fiscal consolidation plans for the period 2011–13. We examine the impact both in ‘normal times’ and under alternative scenarios where, as now, the interest rate channel is impaired and liquidity constraints are heightened. We also explicitly take account of spillover effects.