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Weather and climate variations on subseasonal to decadal time scales can have enormous social, economic, and environmental impacts, making skillful predictions on these time scales a valuable tool for decision-makers. As such, there is a growing interest in the scientific, operational, and applications communities in developing forecasts to improve our foreknowledge of extreme events. On subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) time scales, these include high-impact meteorological events such as tropical cyclones, extratropical storms, floods, droughts, and heat and cold waves. On seasonal to decadal (S2D) time scales, while the focus broadly remains similar (e.g., on precipitation, surface and upper-ocean temperatures, and their effects on the probabilities of high-impact meteorological events), understanding the roles of internal variability and externally forced variability such as anthropogenic warming in forecasts also becomes important. The S2S and S2D communities share common scientific and technical challenges. These include forecast initialization and ensemble generation; initialization shock and drift; understanding the onset of model systematic errors; bias correction, calibration, and forecast quality assessment; model resolution; atmosphere–ocean coupling; sources and expectations for predictability; and linking research, operational forecasting, and end-user needs. In September 2018 a coordinated pair of international conferences, framed by the above challenges, was organized jointly by the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) and the World Weather Research Programme (WWRP). These conferences surveyed the state of S2S and S2D prediction, ongoing research, and future needs, providing an ideal basis for synthesizing current and emerging developments in these areas that promise to enhance future operational services. This article provides such a synthesis.

The Mediterranean is expected to be one of the most prominent and vulnerable climate change “hotspots” of the twenty-first century, and the physical mechanisms underlying this finding are still not clear. Furthermore, complex interactions and feedbacks involving ocean–atmosphere–land–biogeochemical processes play a prominent role in modulating the climate and environment of the Mediterranean region on a range of spatial and temporal scales. Therefore, it is critical to provide robust climate change information for use in vulnerability–impact–adaptation assessment studies considering the Mediterranean as a fully coupled environmental system. The Mediterranean Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (Med-CORDEX) initiative aims at coordinating the Mediterranean climate modeling community toward the development of fully coupled regional climate simulations, improving all relevant components of the system from atmosphere and ocean dynamics to land surface, hydrology, and biogeochemical processes. The primary goals of Med-CORDEX are to improve understanding of past climate variability and trends and to provide more accurate and reliable future projections, assessing in a quantitative and robust way the added value of using high-resolution and coupled regional climate models. The coordination activities and the scientific outcomes of Med-CORDEX can produce an important framework to foster the development of regional Earth system models in several key regions worldwide.

Against the background of potentially substantial sea-level rise, one important question is to what extent are coastal societies able to adapt? This question is often answered in the negative by referring to sinking islands and submerged megacities. Although these risks are real, the picture is incomplete because it lacks consideration of adaptation. This Perspective explores societies’ abilities to adapt to twenty-first-century sea-level rise by integrating perspectives from coastal engineering, economics, finance and social sciences, and provides a comparative analysis of a set of cases that vary in terms of technological limits, economic and financial barriers to adaptation and social conflicts.

The European Aerosol Research Lidar Network, EARLINET, was founded in 2000 as a research project for establishing a quantitative, comprehensive, and statistically significant database for the horizontal, vertical, and temporal distribution of aerosols on a continental scale. Since then EARLINET has continued to provide the most extensive collection of ground-based data for the aerosol vertical distribution over Europe. This paper gives an overview of the network's main developments since 2000 and introduces the dedicated EARLINET special issue, which reports on the present innovative and comprehensive technical solutions and scientific results related to the use of advanced lidar remote sensing techniques for the study of aerosol properties as developed within the network in the last 13 years. Since 2000, EARLINET has developed greatly in terms of number of stations and spatial distribution: from 17 stations in 10 countries in 2000 to 27 stations in 16 countries in 2013. EARLINET has developed greatly also in terms of technological advances with the spread of advanced multiwavelength Raman lidar stations in Europe. The developments for the quality assurance strategy, the optimization of instruments and data processing, and the dissemination of data have contributed to a significant improvement of the network towards a more sustainable observing system, with an increase in the observing capability and a reduction of operational costs. Consequently, EARLINET data have already been extensively used for many climatological studies, long-range transport events, Saharan dust outbreaks, plumes from volcanic eruptions, and for model evaluation and satellite data validation and integration. Future plans are aimed at continuous measurements and near-real-time data delivery in close cooperation with other ground-based networks, such as in the ACTRIS (Aerosols, Clouds, and Trace gases Research InfraStructure Network) www.actris.net, and with the modeling and satellite community, linking the research community with the operational world, with the aim of establishing of the atmospheric part of the European component of the integrated global observing system.

Six months of stratospheric aerosol observations with the European Aerosol Research Lidar Network (EARLINET) from August 2017 to January 2018 are presented. The decay phase of an unprecedented, record-breaking stratospheric perturbation caused by wildfire smoke is reported and discussed in terms of geometrical, optical, and microphysical aerosol properties. Enormous amounts of smoke were injected into the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere over fire areas in western Canada on 12 August 2017 during strong thunderstorm–pyrocumulonimbus activity. The stratospheric fire plumes spread over the entire Northern Hemisphere in the following weeks and months. Twenty-eight European lidar stations from northern Norway to southern Portugal and the eastern Mediterranean monitored the strong stratospheric perturbation on a continental scale. The main smoke layer (over central, western, southern, and eastern Europe) was found at heights between 15 and 20 km since September 2017 (about 2 weeks after entering the stratosphere). Thin layers of smoke were detected at heights of up to 22–23 km. The stratospheric aerosol optical thickness at 532 nm decreased from values > 0.25 on 21–23 August 2017 to 0.005–0.03 until 5–10 September and was mainly 0.003–0.004 from October to December 2017 and thus was still significantly above the stratospheric background (0.001–0.002). Stratospheric particle extinction coefficients (532 nm) were as high as 50–200 Mm−1 until the beginning of September and on the order of 1 Mm−1 (0.5–5 Mm−1) from October 2017 until the end of January 2018. The corresponding layer mean particle mass concentration was on the order of 0.05–0.5 µg m−3 over these months. Soot particles (light-absorbing carbonaceous particles) are efficient ice-nucleating particles (INPs) at upper tropospheric (cirrus) temperatures and available to influence cirrus formation when entering the tropopause from above. We estimated INP concentrations of 50–500 L−1 until the first days in September and afterwards 5–50 L−1 until the end of the year 2017 in the lower stratosphere for typical cirrus formation temperatures of −55 ∘C and an ice supersaturation level of 1.15. The measured profiles of the particle linear depolarization ratio indicated a predominance of nonspherical smoke particles. The 532 nm depolarization ratio decreased slowly with time in the main smoke layer from values of 0.15–0.25 (August–September) to values of 0.05–0.10 (October–November) and < 0.05 (December–January). The decrease of the depolarization ratio is consistent with aging of the smoke particles, growing of a coating around the solid black carbon core (aggregates), and thus change of the shape towards a spherical form. We found ascending aerosol layer features over the most southern European stations, especially over the eastern Mediterranean at 32–35∘ N, that ascended from heights of about 18–19 to 22–23 km from the beginning of October to the beginning of December 2017 (about 2 km per month). We discuss several transport and lifting mechanisms that may have had an impact on the found aerosol layering structures.

We describe and evaluate the NMMB/BSC-Dust, a new dust aerosol cycle model embedded online within the NCEP Non-hydrostatic Multiscale Model (NMMB). NMMB is a further evolution of the operational Non-hydrostatic Mesoscale Model (WRF-NMM), which together with other upgrades has been extended from meso to global scales. Its unified non-hydrostatic dynamical core is prepared for regional and global simulation domains. The new NMMB/BSC-Dust is intended to provide short to medium-range weather and dust forecasts from regional to global scales and represents a first step towards the development of a unified chemical-weather model. This paper describes the parameterizations used in the model to simulate the dust cycle including sources, transport, deposition and interaction with radiation. We evaluate monthly and annual means of the global configuration of the model against the AEROCOM dust benchmark dataset for year 2000 including surface concentration, deposition and aerosol optical depth (AOD), and we evaluate the daily AOD variability in a regional domain at high resolution covering Northern Africa, Middle East and Europe against AERONET AOD for year 2006. The NMMB/BSC-Dust provides a good description of the horizontal distribution and temporal variability of the dust. Daily AOD correlations at the regional scale are around 0.6–0.7 on average without dust data assimilation. At the global scale the model lies within the top range of AEROCOM dust models in terms of performance statistics for surface concentration, deposition and AOD. This paper discusses the current strengths and limitations of the modeling system and points towards future improvements.

We demonstrate improvements in CALIPSO (Cloud–Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations) dust extinction retrievals over northern Africa and Europe when corrections are applied regarding the Saharan dust lidar ratio assumption, the separation of the dust portion in detected dust mixtures, and the averaging scheme introduced in the Level 3 CALIPSO product. First, a universal, spatially constant lidar ratio of 58 sr instead of 40 sr is applied to individual Level 2 dust-related backscatter products. The resulting aerosol optical depths show an improvement compared with synchronous and collocated AERONET (Aerosol Robotic Network) measurements. An absolute bias of the order of −0.03 has been found, improving on the statistically significant biases of the order of −0.10 reported in the literature for the original CALIPSO product. When compared with the MODIS (Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) collocated aerosol optical depth (AOD) product, the CALIPSO negative bias is even less for the lidar ratio of 58 sr. After introducing the new lidar ratio for the domain studied, we examine potential improvements to the climatological CALIPSO Level 3 extinction product: (1) by introducing a new methodology for the calculation of pure dust extinction from dust mixtures and (2) by applying an averaging scheme that includes zero extinction values for the nondust aerosol types detected. The scheme is applied at a horizontal spatial resolution of 1° × 1° for ease of comparison with the instantaneous and collocated dust extinction profiles simulated by the BSC-DREAM8b dust model. Comparisons show that the extinction profiles retrieved with the proposed methodology reproduce the well-known model biases per subregion examined. The very good agreement of the proposed CALIPSO extinction product with respect to AERONET, MODIS and the BSC-DREAM8b dust model makes this dataset an ideal candidate for the provision of an accurate and robust multiyear dust climatology over northern Africa and Europe.

This paper presents a detailed description of LIRIC (LIdar-Radiometer Inversion Code) algorithm for simultaneous processing of coincident lidar and radiometric (sun photometric) observations for the retrieval of the aerosol concentration vertical profiles. As the lidar/radiometric input data we use measurements from European Aerosol Research Lidar Network (EARLINET) lidars and collocated sun-photometers of Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET). The LIRIC data processing provides sequential inversion of the combined lidar and radiometric data. The algorithm starts with the estimations of column-integrated aerosol parameters from radiometric measurements followed by the retrieval of height dependent concentrations of fine and coarse aerosols from lidar signals using integrated column characteristics of aerosol layer as a priori constraints. The use of polarized lidar observations allows us to discriminate between spherical and non-spherical particles of the coarse aerosol mode.The LIRIC software package was implemented and tested at a number of EARLINET stations. Intercomparison of the LIRIC-based aerosol retrievals was performed for the observations by seven EARLINET lidars in Leipzig, Germany on 25 May 2009. We found close agreement between the aerosol parameters derived from different lidars that supports high robustness of the LIRIC algorithm. The sensitivity of the retrieval results to the possible reduction of the available observation data is also discussed.

This study focuses on the analysis of aerosol hygroscopicity using remote sensing techniques. Continuous observations of aerosol backscatter coefficient (βaer), temperature (T) and water vapor mixing ratio (r) have been performed by means of a Raman lidar system at the aerological station of MeteoSwiss at Payerne (Switzerland) since 2008. These measurements allow us to monitor in a continuous way any change in aerosol properties as a function of the relative humidity (RH). These changes can be observed either in time at a constant altitude or in altitude at a constant time. The accuracy and precision of RH measurements from the lidar have been evaluated using the radiosonde (RS) technique as a reference. A total of 172 RS profiles were used in this intercomparison, which revealed a bias smaller than 4 % RH and a standard deviation smaller than 10 % RH between both techniques in the whole (in lower) troposphere at nighttime (at daytime), indicating the good performance of the lidar for characterizing RH. A methodology to identify situations favorable to studying aerosol hygroscopicity has been established, and the aerosol hygroscopicity has been characterized by means of the backscatter enhancement factor (fβ). Two case studies, corresponding to different types of aerosol, are used to illustrate the potential of this methodology. The first case corresponds to a mixture of rural aerosol and smoke particles (smoke mixture), which showed a higher hygroscopicity (fβ355=2.8 and fβ1064=1.8 in the RH range 73 %–97 %) than the second case, in which mineral dust was present (fβ355=1.2 and fβ1064=1.1 in the RH range 68 %–84 %). The higher sensitivity of the shortest wavelength to hygroscopic growth was qualitatively reproduced using Mie simulations. In addition, a good agreement was found between the hygroscopic analysis done in the vertical and in time for Case I, where the latter also allowed us to observe the hydration and dehydration of the smoke mixture. Finally, the impact of aerosol hygroscopicity on the Earth's radiative balance has been evaluated using the GAME (Global Atmospheric Model) radiative transfer model. The model showed an impact with an increase in absolute value of 2.4 W m−2 at the surface with respect to the dry conditions for the hygroscopic layer of Case I (smoke mixture).