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"Democratization Belarus."
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Democracy Assistance from the Third Wave
The role of Western NGOs in the transition of postcommunist nations to democracy has been well documented. In this study, Paulina Pospieszna follows a different trajectory, examining the role of a former aid recipient (Poland), newly democratic itself, and its efforts to aid democratic transitions in the neighboring states of Belarus and Ukraine.
eBook
Pluralism by default : weak autocrats and the rise of competitive politics
\"Focusing on regime trajectories across the former Soviet Union, Pluralism by Default posits that political competition in \"new democracies\" has often been grounded less in well-designed institutions, democratic leaders, or emerging civil society and more in the failure of authoritarianism. Lucan Way contends that pluralism has persisted in many cases because autocrats lack the organization, authority, or coordination to steal elections, impose censorship, repress opposition, or keep allies in line. Attention to the dynamics of this \"pluralism by default\" reveals a largely unrecognized contradiction in the transition process: the same factors that facilitate democratic and semi-democratic political competition may also thwart the development of stable, well-functioning democratic institutions. National divisions or weak states and parties--typically seen as impediments to democracy--can also stymie efforts to crack down on political opposition and concentrate control. Way demonstrates that the features that have made Ukraine the most democratic country in the former Soviet Union also contributed to the country's extreme dysfunction and descent into war in 2014\"-- Provided by publisher.
Book
Pluralism by default : weak autocrats and the rise of competitive politics
An audacious new explanation for the emergence of political pluralism in weak states.
Pluralism by Default explores sources of political contestation in the former Soviet Union and beyond. Lucan Way proposes that pluralism in \"new democracies\" is often grounded less in democratic leadership or emerging civil society and more in the failure of authoritarianism. Dynamic competition frequently emerges because autocrats lack the state capacity to steal elections, impose censorship, or repress opposition. In fact, the same institutional failures that facilitate political competition may also thwart the development of stable democracy.
eBook
The Dynamics of Mass Mobilization in Belarus
How can and should we analyze mass mobilization and its outcomes in authoritarian (and potentially democratizing) states as social scientists? Are there any distinctive features to the study of mass mobilization and its outcomes in Eastern Europe? And how much should we focus on comparative analyses versus context and country specificities? The case of the 2020 mass mobilization in Belarus offers an opportunity to engage with and answer these questions in a reciprocal dialogue between scholars of protest and activism, politics of competitive authoritarian and democratizing contexts, and regional and country experts. This symposium brings together a diverse set of scholars and combines comparative and case-specific analyses and empirically driven and interpretive analyses that focus on different political, social, and cultural angles of this episode of mass mobilization and its aftermath.
Journal Article
Catch 2020: explaining the performance of the EU policy towards Belarus
This article analyses the performance of EU policy towards Belarus, the effectiveness of the EU’s “critical engagement” with the regime in 2014–2020 and the EU’s response to the Belarusian crisis. It makes several points. First, the EU policy showed low effectiveness due to a duality of goals and a disjuncture with the structural conditions in Belarus. Second, EU’s engagement with the regime was instrumental for the sustainment of the regime’s model and allowed to invest additional resources in cooptation, repression and legitimization. This further delayed necessary political and economic changes in the country and made sure that the elite remained loyal Lukashenka. Furthermore, the regime-centredness of the EU policy isolated the EU from the domestic drivers of change. The EU’s prioritization of ties with the regime allowed the latter to limit and control the EU interaction with the Belarusian society, which backfired during the protest mobilization. Finally, the EU showed limited capacity to learn from its mistakes and act in an agile way. Only Lukashenka’s participation in the Russian war against Ukraine in 2022 removed existing policy ambiguities, yet slow and ill-born attempts to create a new policy towards Lukashenka persist.
Journal Article
The Ball That Failed to Curve: The 2023 “Populist Polarizing” Referendum in Poland
In October 2023, Poland’s illiberal right-wing government held a referendum modeled after the one held in Hungary one year earlier. Organized in conjunction with the parliamentary elections under the pretext of “saving costs,” the 2023 Polish referendum constitutes the most recent example of how populists can use direct democracy to mobilize their electorate. However, unlike Hungary’s experience a year earlier, this referendum highlights how “populist polarizing” referendums can become a double-edged sword. Building on previous work by Bartolini and Mair, and Enyedi, this article introduces a new type of referendum: the populist polarizing. Initiated by populist parties to amplify political divisions for partisan gain, this referendum-type frames choices in starkly oppositional terms, creating an “us vs. them” dynamic that intensifies polarization. We contrast this with the more known and studied “cleavage referendums.” In particular, using both primary and secondary data, we demonstrate how Poland’s populist government employed the referendum instrumentally. They posed thematically differentiated questions on issues such as relocating migrants within the EU, selling state assets, raising the retirement age, and removing a border barrier. By exploiting emotionally driven political divides, the government aimed to polarize the campaign and mobilize their voters in the lead-up to the general elections. Departing from the case-study literature, we present an innovative argument: opposition parties can counteract populist governments’ strategies and successfully defend democracy by encouraging a selective boycott—voting in elections while refusing to participate in the referendum. The Polish experience illustrates how populist polarizing referendums, initially aimed to increase polarization and undermine democracy, can paradoxically be used to reverse democratic backsliding and safeguard liberal democracy. The Polish case shows that populist polarizing referendums are not infallible. While populist forces typically exploit polarization, referendums can also become a tool for the opposition. However, for the strategy to be effective, the opposition must take a constructive and strategic approach.
Journal Article
The Anatomy of Impatience: Exploring Factors behind 2020 Labor Unrest in Belarus
The wave of labor unrest that accompanied Belarusian post-election protests had no precedents in the country's independent history or recent post-Soviet political protest mobilizations. These protests challenge the prevalent trend in the current literature on the post-Soviet working class to stress its weakness in terms of organization, as well as structural and material resources. This article relies on a database of workplace-related protest events (August 10–September 30) and a selection of statements, interviews, and social media discussions among participants of the protests, in order to explain this unexpected activation of the seemingly passive Belarusian working class. The author hypothesizes that it was the vagueness of the Belarusian opposition's ideology and workers’ participation in the broader protest movement that helped them overcome the challenges of suppressed voice, bureaucratic despotism, and atomization. These mobilizing factors, however, limit the further development of autonomous labor organizations and their democratizing impact.
Journal Article
Who Will Sustain a Culture of Democracy in Post-Communist States? Examining Patterns of Democratic Competence among Youth in Albania and Belarus
Research is mixed on the current state of democratic consolidation in transitioning states and whether young people are prepared to help sustain a culture of democracy. This study draws on the Council of Europe’s Reference Framework of Competencies for Democratic Culture and the framework of the International Civic and Citizenship Education Study to explore patterns of democratic orientation among adolescents in Albania and Belarus (N = 711). Latent profile analyses identified five groups of democratically oriented adolescents in both states: (a) All-around citizens, (b) Idealistic and Disengaged, (c) Duty-oriented, (d) Diversity Enthusiasts and (e) Alienated. Results further revealed that profiles were unevenly distributed between the two countries and that profile membership was differentially related to adolescents’ perceptions of school climate and their intentions to participate in civic and political life. The article concludes with a discussion of how consideration of heterogeneity within democratically-competent youth can inform efforts to promote a culture of democracy in transitioning societies.
Journal Article
International Non-Governmental Organizations and Democracy Assistance in Belarus
The article addresses two questions: 1) Which factors negatively impact the effectiveness of democracy assistance in Belarus? and 2) How effectively have International Non-Governmental Organizations (INGOs) in Belarus carried out democracy assistance? To do so, it draws on an original dataset about INGOs' activities in the country, which was compiled through a dozen qualitative interviews with representatives of these organizations. Methodologically, the article replicates a multivariate design of Sarah Bush, allowing it--unlike most previous research--to quantify the negative impact of understudied problems in the field of Belarusian democratic assistance, including professionalization, competition, and the interaction of actors' motives and incentives. A surprising research finding is that donors in Belarus, for a number of reasons, knowingly support \"ineffective\" programs.
Journal Article