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The U.S. Census Bureau projects that racial minority groups will make up a majority of the U.S. national population in 2042, effectively creating a so-called majority-minority nation. In four experiments, we explored how salience of such racial demographic shifts affects White Americans' political-party leanings and expressed political ideology. Study 1 revealed that making California's majority-minority shift salient led politically unaffiliated White Americans to lean more toward the Republican Party and express greater political conservatism. Studies 2, 3a, and 3b revealed that making the changing national racial demographics salient led White Americans (regardless of political affiliation) to endorse conservative policy positions more strongly. Moreover, the results implicate group-status threat as the mechanism underlying these effects. Taken together, this work suggests that the increasing diversity of the nation may engender a widening partisan divide.

Natural hazards and disasters distress populations and inflict damage on the built environment, but existing studies yielded mixed results regarding their lasting demographic implications. I leverage variation across three decades of block group exposure to an exogenous and acute natural hazard—severe tornadoes—to focus conceptually on social vulnerability and to empirically assess local net demographic change. Using matching techniques and a difference-in-difference estimator, I find that severe tornadoes result in no net change in local population size but lead to compositional changes, whereby affected neighborhoods become more White and socioeconomically advantaged. Moderation models show that the effects are exacerbated for wealthier communities and that a federal disaster declaration does not mitigate the effects. I interpret the empirical findings as evidence of a displacement process by which economically disadvantaged residents are forcibly mobile, and economically advantaged and White locals rebuild rather than relocate. To make sense of demographic change after natural hazards, I advance an unequal replacement of social vulnerability framework that considers hazard attributes, geographic scale, and impacted local context. I conclude that the natural environment is consequential for the sociospatial organization of communities and that a disaster declaration has little impact on mitigating this driver of neighborhood inequality.

PurposeThis paper aims to disclose the savings behavior of Iran's economy in the context of demographic transition.Design/methodology/approachEmploying a version of Ramsey-Cass-Koopmans growth model, this paper benefits from a broad range of data and variables which are mainly taken from the Central Bank of Iran's database. The study uses actual and calculated data to produce analogous simulated data. The data cover the 1970–2015 period. This long period provides an opportunity to simulate more valid time series. It is worth noting that due to the severe economic sanctions imposed on the Iran's economy, particularly after 2017, some most recent data have been obliterated from the sample.FindingsThe results, stemming from the simulated model, hint that; firstly, the population variable is a notable determinant of the savings rate. Secondly, the effects of a slump in the population growth rate would attenuate the savings level significantly. Thirdly, other pragmatic steps could be taken to redress the fallout of the demographic changes.Research limitations/implicationsThere are some limitations in providing broad data related to economic sectors in Iran. The savings data, for instance, are available as an aggregated time series, and if the authors had wide data of household level, they would have been able to build more detail-based model. Similar to this issue of lack of households’ income-based data, some measures such as high or low levels as well as detailed demographic data could be helpful in sophisticated household level resulting. In addition, the complex relationship between the government and social security (pension) funds, in terms of financing part of government's budget deficit by these funds, thwarts a typical researcher in using comprehensive and transparent government expenditure data in their research. In other words, the possible positive or negative role of the funds, as a related issue to the demographic changes, cannot simply be determined in the model. It might be possible after necessary corrections are carried out in the mentioned relations.Originality/valueIn fact, the problem statement in this paper is to discern how the population aging can impact the saving rates on the one hand, and to what extent its repercussion can be modified by the other theoretical-based determinants on the other. In fact, the underlying argument of the present research arises from the stylized facts concerning prognosticates of the future evolutions of the world's population. To that end, the study will use Iran's economic and demographic data.

References to the second demographic transition (SDT) have increased dramatically in the past two decades. The SDT predicts unilinear change toward very low fertility and a diversity of union and family types. The primary driver of these changes is a powerful, inevitable, and irreversible shift in attitudes and norms in the direction of greater individual freedom and self-actualization. First, we describe the origin of this framework and its evolution over time. Second, we review the empirical fit of the framework to major changes in demographic and family behavior in the United States, the West, and beyond. As has been the case for other unilinear, developmental theories of demographic or family change, the SDT failed to predict many contemporary patterns of change and difference. Finally, we review previous critiques and identify fundamental weaknesses of this perspective, and we provide brief comparisons to selected alternative approaches.

Human security crisis and demographic changes are intertwined and affect the socio-political, economic, and environmental stability of a region. These dynamics have been instrumental in the conflict in the Chittagong Hill Tracts (CHT) of Bangladesh, especially in the case of the Kuki Chin Army insurgency. This paper seeks to explore the emergence of the Kuki Chin Army, with particular reference to the fact that demographic changes and the intensification of the human security crisis have been the major causes of insurgency in the area. State policies, such as the forced resettlement of ethnic groups to make way for the Kaptai Hydro Dam and the organized transmigration of Bengali population have transformed the demographic landscape of the region radically. These demographic shifts have increased competition over resources, caused land conflicts, and have destabilized the socio-political equilibrium in the CHT, further marginalizing the ethnic minorities. The situation in the region has also been worsened by the human security crisis that was caused by the demographic changes. Because of these tensions, groups such as the Kuki Chin Army have emerged, which have taken the form of an insurgent force to meet the unmet needs of ethnic groups. The emergence of the Kuki Chin Army can be attributed to the state’s failure to mitigate the adverse effects of demographic change and the human security threats that have persistently defined the region. Although state-sponsored politics of factionalism have contributed to the creation of divisions among the ethnic groups, this paper has pointed out that demographic changes and human security issues are the fundamental issues that have led to the insurgency. This paper highlights the necessity of sustainable reforms through an examination of the demographic changes and the human security crisis.

Purpose Housing is an essential element in the dynamics of urbanization. One of the main reasons for urbanization is population growth. As the population grows, the need for housing also increases. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to examine the links between housing policies and plans and demographic issues in Iran. Design/methodology/approach The research has been conducted using the qualitative method. First, 14 main indicators of the population that occurred over the past 40 years have been extracted. To investigate the role of demographic indicators in seven main housing plans and policies in Iran, 30 indigenous housing experts have been interviewed. A criteria-based sampling method has been used in this research. Findings The results of this study show that demographic developments have been neglected in the formulation of Iranian housing policies and plans. It is also worth noting that the lack of attention to demographic issues a main reason for the failure of housing policies in Iran. Practical implications As an important implication, the present paper revealed that the mere submission of planning to the economists has been associated with an unpleasant consequence in Iran, and now, it is time to use various expertise and sciences in this important process, as well. Certainly, the use of other sciences such as urban planners contribute greatly to the housing promotion of plans. Originality/value In the present research, the relationship between housing and population changes has been investigated because of the significance of the housing sector in Iran besides the problems in the implementation of housing plans.

We argue theoretically and document empirically that aging leads to greater (industrial) automation, because it creates a shortage of middle-aged workers specializing in manual production tasks. We show that demographic change is associated with greater adoption of robots and other automation technologies across countries and with more robotics-related activities across U.S. commuting zones. We also document more automation innovation in countries undergoing faster aging. Our directed technological change model predicts that the response of automation technologies to aging should be more pronounced in industries that rely more on middle-aged workers and those that present greater opportunities for automation and that productivity should improve and the labor share should decline relatively in industries that are more amenable to automation. The evidence supports all four of these predictions.

Based on the panel data of eight member states of Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) from 1996 to 2019, this study explores the impact of demographic changes on life insurance consumption in SCO member countries under the framework of static panel model and dynamic panel model. And the study analyzes the heterogeneity of religious division and different aging degrees. The empirical results show that both old-age dependency ratio and teenager dependency ratio have positive impacts on life insurance consumption in the SCO countries. Besides, the current consumption of ordinary life insurance significantly stimulates the future consumption of ordinary life insurance. Furthermore, demographic changes have heterogeneous impacts on life insurance consumption in terms of different religions and different degrees of aging. Our findings provide managerial implications for insurance companies that carry out life insurance business in SCO member states. Insurance companies should consider the policyholders' life insurance consumption in accordance with demographic changes of both old-age dependency ratio and teenager dependency ratio, and also take differentiated life insurance sales strategies according to different degrees of aging and whether the residents believe in Islam.

The authors review demographic trends and research on families in the United States, with a special focus on the past decade. They consider the following several topics: (a) marriage and remarriage, (b) divorce, (c) cohabitation, (d) fertility, (e) same-gender unions, (f) immigrant families, and (g) children's living arrangements. Throughout, the authors review both overall trends and patterns as well as those by social class and race—ethnicity. The authors discuss major strands of recent research, emphasizing emerging themes and promising directions. They close with a summary of central patterns and trends and conclude that recent trends are not as uniform as they tended to be in earlier decades, making the description of family change increasingly complex.

This paper argues that contemporary processes of extended urbanisation, which include suburbanisation, post-suburbanisation and peri-urbanisation, may result in increased vulnerability to infectious disease spread. Through a review of existing literature at the nexus of urbanisation and infectious disease, we consider how this (potential) increased vulnerability to infectious diseases in peri– or suburban areas is in fact dialectically related to socio-material transformations on the metropolitan edge. In particular, we highlight three key factors influencing the spread of infectious disease that have been identified in the literature: demographic change, infrastructure and governance. These have been chosen given both the prominence of these themes and their role in shaping the spread of disease on the urban edge. Further, we suggest how a landscape political ecology framework can be useful for examining the role of socioecological transformations in generating increased risk of infectious disease in peri–and suburban areas. To illustrate our arguments we will draw upon examples from various re-emerging infectious disease events and outbreaks around the world to reveal how extended urbanisation in the broadest sense has amplified the conditions necessary for the spread of infectious diseases. We thus call for future research on the spatialities of health and disease to pay attention to how variegated patterns of extended urbanisation may influence possible outbreaks and the mechanisms through which such risks can be alleviated. 本文认为，当代的扩展城市化进程，包括郊区化、后郊区化和周边城市化，可能会导致传染病传播方面脆弱性的增加。通过回顾现有的关于城市化和传染病之间关系的文献，我们研究这种（潜在的 ）周边或郊区传染病脆弱性的增加与大都市边缘的社会物质转变之间是如何辩证相关的。特别是，我们强调了文献中确定的影响传染病传播的三个关键因素：人口变化、基础设施和治理。鉴于这些主题的突出性及其在城市边缘疾病传播中的作用，我们选择了这些主题。此外，我们提出了景观政治生态框架在研究社会生态转变对周边和郊区传染病风险增高的影响方面的作用。为了说明我们的论点，我们将使用世界各地各种重新出现的传染病事件和爆发的例子，揭示了最广以上的城市化扩展如何扩大了传染病传播的必要条件。因此，我们呼吁，在未来对健康和疾病的空间关系的研究中，应关注各种不同的扩展城市化模式对疾病爆发风险的影响，以及减轻这种风险的机制。