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To develop and validate a pragmatic risk screening score for postoperative delirium (POD) based on routine preoperative data. Prospective observational monocentric trial. Preoperative data and POD assessment were collected from cardiac and non-cardiac surgical patients at a German university hospital. Data-driven modelling approaches (step-wise vs. component-wise gradient boosting on complete and restricted predictor set) were compared to predictor selection by experts (investigators vs. external Delphi survey). Inpatients (≥60 years) scheduled for elective surgery lasting more than 60 min. POD was assessed daily during first five postoperative or post-sedation days with confusion assessment method for intensive and standard care unit (CAM-ICU/CAM), 4 ‘A's test (4AT) and Delirium Observation Screening (DOS) scale. From 1023 enrolled patients, 978 completed observations were separated in development (n = 600; POD incidence 22.2%) and validation (n = 378; POD incidence 25.7%) cohorts. Data-driven approaches generated models containing laboratory values, surgical discipline and several items on cognitive and quality of life assessment, which are time consuming to collect. Boosting on complete predictor set yielded the highest bootstrapped prediction accuracy (AUC 0.767) by selecting 12 predictors, with substantial dependence on cardiac surgery. Investigators selected via univariate comparison age, ASA and NYHA classification, surgical risk as well as ´serial subtraction´ and ´sentence repetition´ of the Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MoCA) to enable rapid collection of their risk score for preoperative screening. This investigator model provided slightly lower bootstrapped prediction accuracy (AUC 0.746) but proved to have robust results on validation cohort (AUC 0.725) irrespective of surgical discipline. Simplification of the investigator model by scaling and rounding of regression coefficients into the PROPDESC score achieved a comparable precision on the validation cohort (AUC 0.729). The PROPDESC score showed promising performance on a separate validation cohort in predicting POD based on routine preoperative data. Suitability for universal screening needs to be shown in a large external validation. •PROPDESC score was developed for preoperative screening of POD risk.•Different modelling approaches with statistical and clinical input were investigated.•Prediction model development aimed to provide a pragmatic screening tool.•PROPDESC score predicts POD risk based on preoperative rapidly available parameters.•PROPDESC score provides POD prediction in various surgical disciplines.

In this article, a new flexible probability density function with three parameters is proposed for modeling asymmetric data (positive and negative) with different types of kurtosis (mesokurtic, leptokurtic and platykurtic). Some of its statistical and reliability properties, including hazard rate function, moments, moment generating function, incomplete moments, mean deviations, moment of the residual life, moment of the reversed residual life, and order statistics are derived. Its hazard rate function can be either constant, increasing-constant, decreasing-constant, U shape, upside down shape or upside down-U shape. Seven classical estimation methods are considered to estimate the unknown model parameters. Monte Carlo simulation experiments are performed to compare the performance of the seven different estimation methods. Finally, a distinctive asymmetric real data application is analyzed for illustrating the flexibility of the new model.

Due to the drought negative impacts, accurate forecasting of drought indices is important. This study focused on the short- to long-term Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) forecasting in sites with different climates using newly integrated hybrid pre-post-processing techniques. Four sites in Iran's northwest were selected and the SPIs series with time scales of 3, 9, and 24 months were forecasted during the period of 1978–2017. For improving the modeling efficiency, wavelet transform and ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) pre-processing methods were used. In this regard, temporal features of the SPIs series were decomposed via wavelet transform (WT), then, the obtained sub-series were further broken down into intrinsic mode functions using EEMD. Also, simple linear averaging and nonlinear neural ensemble post-processing methods were applied to ensemble the outputs of hybrid models. The results showed that data pre-processing enhanced the models' capability up to 40%. Also, integrated pre-post-processing models improved the models' efficiency by approximately 50%. The root mean square errors' criteria distribution range decreased from 0.337–1.03 (in raw data) to 0.195–0.714 (in decomposed data). The results proved the capability of applied methods in modeling the SPIs series. In increasing the models' accuracy, data pre-processing was more effective than data post-processing.

The integration of body-movement in couple therapy has gained increasing recognition in recent years. This study aimed at understanding the motivation and expectations of clients who have chosen to turn to Couple Psychotherapy through Movement and the extent to which they felt that these expectations were met in the process. Nine couples (n = 18 individuals) from a variety of backgrounds, religious affiliations, and countries of origin participated in 12 couple therapy sessions that included somatic and kinetic emphases. They were interviewed and responded to questionnaires both before and after the sessions. The findings indicated that the expectations of the participants related to a fuller expression of their difficulties and needs within the relationship through body-movement integrated therapy, and their perceptions of the process and its conclusion converged on three major themes: (a) the importance of introducing increased vitality, creativity, and playfulness into the relationship; (b) the need to learn a new mode of communication through the body; and (c) the contribution of bodily communication to the partners’ attainment of new insights about each other and their relationship. These findings highlight the role of the body in joint emotional experiences, suggesting that engaging in movement combined with verbal processing may enable partners to transform implicit bodily knowledge into conscious material in their relationship. The acquaintance with their own and their partners’ “somatic native tongue” will enhance the emotional dialogue between them, particularly in the context of ethnic and cultural diversity or different native tongues.

, li., div.Abstract mso-style-name:Abstract; margin-top:0cm; margin-right:1.0cm; margin-bottom:0cm; margin-left:1.0cm; margin-bottom:.0001pt; text-align:justify; line-height:10.0pt; punctuation-wrap:simple; text-autospace:none; font-size:9.0pt; font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif; span.apple-style-span mso-style-name:apple-style-span; span.hps mso-style-name:hps; span.Carcterdenumeracin mso-style-name:\"Carácter de numeración\"; span.RTFNum21 mso-style-name:\"RTF_Num 2 1\"; font-family:Symbol; span.RTFNum31 mso-style-name:\"RTF_Num 3 1\"; font-family:Symbol; span.Smbolodenotaalpie mso-style-name:\"Símbolo de nota al pie\"; span.Fuentedeprrafopredeter1 mso-style-name:\"Fuente de párrafo predeter\\.1\"; span.Refdenotaalpie1 mso-style-name:\"Ref\\.de nota al pie1\"; span.WW8Num3z1 mso-style-name:WW8Num3z1; font-family:\"Courier New\"; span.WW8Num3z2 mso-style-name:WW8Num3z2; font-family:Wingdings; span.WW8Num3z3 mso-style-name:WW8Num3z3; font-family:Symbol; span.Vietas mso-style-name:Viñetas; font-family:OpenSymbol; span.WW8Num6z0 mso-style-name:WW8Num6z0; font-family:Symbol; span.WW8Num6z1 mso-style-name:WW8Num6z1; font-family:\"Courier New\"; span.WW8Num6z2 mso-style-name:WW8Num6z2; font-family:Wingdings; span.WW8Num5z0 mso-style-name:WW8Num5z0; font-family:Symbol; span.WW8Num5z1 mso-style-name:WW8Num5z1; font-family:\"Courier New\"; span.WW8Num5z2 mso-style-name:WW8Num5z2; font-family:Wingdings; span.WW8Num4z0 mso-style-name:WW8Num4z0; font-family:Symbol; span.WW8Num4z1 mso-style-name:WW8Num4z1; font-family:\"Courier New\"; span.WW8Num4z2 mso-style-name:WW8Num4z2; font-family:Wingdings; span.Smbolodenotafinal mso-style-name:\"Símbolo de nota final\"; span.apple-converted-space mso-style-name:apple-converted-space; span.longtext mso-style-name:long_text; span.Textoindependiente3Car mso-style-name:\"Texto independiente 3 Car\"; mso-style-link:\"Texto independiente 3\"; font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif; .MsoPapDefault margin-bottom:10.0pt; line-height:115%; /* Page Definitions */ @page WordSection1 size:612.0pt 792.0pt; margin:99.25pt 93.55pt 73.7pt 93.55pt; div.WordSection1 page:WordSection1; /* List Definitions */ ol margin-bottom:0cm; ul margin-bottom:0cm; --> The development of reflective thought for the training in integral people * El desarrollo del pensamiento reflexivo en la formación de personas integrales * O desenvolvimento do pensamento reflexivo para o treinamento em pessoas integradas* José Joaquín Martínez Lozano** Luisa Stella Paz Montes*** Mawency Vergel Ortega*** Escuela Superior de Administración Pública - Colombia Universidad Francisco de Paula Santander- Colombia Date Received: February 20, 2018 Date Accepted: May 22, 2018 Date of Publication: July 01 of 2018 DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.22335/rlct.v10i3.622 * Article research result \"Onto-historical understanding of financial math in the trajectory of distance education- Universidad Francisco de Paula Santander´s\", research group Zulima Science, funded by the FINU-UFPS Research and Extension´s , co-financing 034-2018. ** Bachelor in Biology, specialist in Biomathematics, Master in Educational Management, PhD in Education, Professor-Researcher, member of the Quetelet Research Group of the National Police. Affiliation Professor of the Higher School of Public Administration. E-mail: checo.jf@gmail.com. Orcid: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6308-1344 ***Business Administrator, Specialist in Educational Management, Master in Business Management, Doctor in Education. Professor-Researcher, Member of the Research Group in Social and Human Sciences, \"GICSH\" ascribed to the Faculty of Business Sciences of the Universidad Francisco de Paula Santander (Cúcuta, Colombia). Affiliation Professor of the Francisco de Paula Santander University. E-mail: luisastellapm@ufps.edu.co Orcid: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8887-3441 *** Bachelor of Mathematics and Physics, specialist in applied statistics, Magister in Educational Management, PhD in Education, Post PhD in Imaginary and social representations. Professor-Researcher, Member of the Zulima Science Research Group \"ZCD\", ascribed to the Faculty of Business Sciences of the Universidad Francisco de Paula Santander (Cúcuta, Colombia). Affiliation Professor of the Francisco de Paula University Santander. . E-mail: mawency@ufps.edu.co Orcid: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8285-2968 Abstract In this article we present results of research whose objective was to analyze experiences in the growth of plants such as the Duranta and Salvia where the student develops competences in posing and solving problems that allowed him to argue, model, communicate on mathematics in improvement of their academic performance. The methodology followed a quantitative approach, field-type experimental design, applied to a sample of 180 students of engineering programs. Results: 95% of the students remained in the course, 99% scored above the general institutional average in integral calculus. Conclusion: Application in plant growth allowed to develop competences in raising and solving problems, development of mathematical thinking, analyzing variables and changes in a time, modeling situations; argue, represent entities. The use of blogs allowed the generation of new methods of study, and different forms of evaluation and evaluation of learning, both for students and teachers.

In this study, the effect of tine type, adding wing, operating depth and forward speed on the draft requirement of subsoil tillage tines was investigated in clay loam soil. Three subsoil tillage tines (subsoiler, bentleg and paraplow), four levels of forward speed (1.8, 2.3, 2.9 and 3.5 km/h), three levels of depth (30, 40 and 50 cm) and winged and no-wing tines were examined with the exception of bentleg as it would not be winged. It was revealed that draft of the tines is less affected by forward speed but is much affected by tine type, depth and wing. It was observed that an increase of speed and depth plus adding wing results in an increase of draft in all tines. Additionally, it was found that in all depths and speeds, subsoiler required more draft than paraplow and paraplow required more draft than bentleg. Multiple regression models including the studied parameters were developed to predict the draft requirements for each tine with high accuracy.

Subject of Research. The paper considers physical processes occurring in sensory elements of angular rate and apparent acceleration measuring devices, such as hemispherical resonator gyro and pendulum accelerometer. Inertial masses of the studied sensory elements are made of KU-1 quartz glass. Method. Actual engineering drawings of the sensory elements are converted into a specialized 3D environment to simulate the performance of devices under different input effects, that is impossible with real devices. Moreover, traditional mathematical modeling approach, that involves such software packages as Matlab, does not provide a complete picture. Main Results. Visual information on the nature of motion of inertial masses was obtained using the results of 3D modeling, making it possible to improve and correct the known mathematical models of devices for subsequent Matlab analysis with closed control loop, since the studied gyro and accelerometer are compensation type devices with positive and negative feedback, respectively. Resonant frequencies of the considered devices were calculated as well. Practical Relevance. Considering the accelerometer, the obtained information on resonant frequencies made it possible to calculate band pass filters in order to suppress reactions to disturbances at these frequencies in the device pass band, and for the hemispherical resonator gyro it provides the possibility to define more precisely the resonator working frequency of oscillations.

This chapter contains sections titled: Introduction and definitions of Scale From the laboratory to the Field: Upscaling Problems Field Methods for Understanding Landscape‐Scale Patterns Design and Statistical Analysis of Large‐Scale Biological Control Modelling Scale Effects in Biological Control Conclusions References

This chapter deals with the formulation of how to move how much water into which neighboring cells in order to have a representation of reality that is suitable for a given task. This can be pictured as many drops flowing from one cell to one or more adjacent cells, depending on their relative elevations. The chapter assembles four criteria by which to judge or select a flow direction algorithm: (1) Handling of the discretization into only eight possible adjacent flow directions; (2) handling of divergence; (3) handling of dispersal; and (4) handling of sub-grid effects. It presents the basic types of single- and multiple-neighbor flow algorithms that are fundamentally different. Elevation dominates the movement of water and a multitude of associated phenomena at or close to the land-surface. Because of the wide availability of DEMs, geomorphometric techniques are outstandingly powerful in the quantification, analysis, forecasting, or parameterization of phenomena related to the flow of water on the Earth's surface. However, the choice of methods depends on the task at hand and on the data available. The chapter gives an introduction to the most important concepts in geomorphometry that relate to the flow of water. The methods explained, represent a selection of methods originating from a large and active research community. Catchment area is a powerful parameter of the amount of water draining though a cell that can be combined with other attributes to form compound indices. In the following, we briefly describe the two powerful and frequently used indices: Wetness and stream power.

This chapter contains sections titled: Introduction A Data‐Driven Approach Acoustic Features Acoustic Modeling Pronunciation Modeling Language Modeling Search Evaluation Discussion Further Reading References