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Have bacteria won?
Today, we are far less likely to die from infection than at any other time in history, but still we worry about epidemics, the menace of antibiotic resistance and modern \"plagues\" like Ebola. In this timely new book, eminent bacteriologist Hugh Pennington explores why these fears remain and why they are unfounded. He reports on outright victories (such as smallpox), battles where the enemy is on its last stand (polio), surprise attacks from vegetarian bats (Ebola, SARS) and demented cows (BSE). Qualified optimism, he argues, is the message for the future but the battles will go on forever. -- Provided by publisher.
Book
Epidemiology and transmission of COVID-19 in 391 cases and 1286 of their close contacts in Shenzhen, China: a retrospective cohort study
Rapid spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in Wuhan, China, prompted heightened surveillance in Shenzhen, China. The resulting data provide a rare opportunity to measure key metrics of disease course, transmission, and the impact of control measures.
From Jan 14 to Feb 12, 2020, the Shenzhen Center for Disease Control and Prevention identified 391 SARS-CoV-2 cases and 1286 close contacts. We compared cases identified through symptomatic surveillance and contact tracing, and estimated the time from symptom onset to confirmation, isolation, and admission to hospital. We estimated metrics of disease transmission and analysed factors influencing transmission risk.
Cases were older than the general population (mean age 45 years) and balanced between males (n=187) and females (n=204). 356 (91%) of 391 cases had mild or moderate clinical severity at initial assessment. As of Feb 22, 2020, three cases had died and 225 had recovered (median time to recovery 21 days; 95% CI 20–22). Cases were isolated on average 4·6 days (95% CI 4·1–5·0) after developing symptoms; contact tracing reduced this by 1·9 days (95% CI 1·1–2·7). Household contacts and those travelling with a case were at higher risk of infection (odds ratio 6·27 [95% CI 1·49–26·33] for household contacts and 7·06 [1·43–34·91] for those travelling with a case) than other close contacts. The household secondary attack rate was 11·2% (95% CI 9·1–13·8), and children were as likely to be infected as adults (infection rate 7·4% in children <10 years vs population average of 6·6%). The observed reproductive number (R) was 0·4 (95% CI 0·3–0·5), with a mean serial interval of 6·3 days (95% CI 5·2–7·6).
Our data on cases as well as their infected and uninfected close contacts provide key insights into the epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2. This analysis shows that isolation and contact tracing reduce the time during which cases are infectious in the community, thereby reducing the R. The overall impact of isolation and contact tracing, however, is uncertain and highly dependent on the number of asymptomatic cases. Moreover, children are at a similar risk of infection to the general population, although less likely to have severe symptoms; hence they should be considered in analyses of transmission and control.
Emergency Response Program of Harbin Institute of Technology, Emergency Response Program of Peng Cheng Laboratory, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Journal Article
Working to overcome the global impact of neglected tropical diseases: First WHO report on neglected tropical diseases
Neglected tropical diseases blight the lives of a billion people worldwide and threaten the health of millions more. These close companions of poverty weaken impoverished populations, frustrate the achievement of health in the Millennium Development Goals and impede global public health outcomes. Wider recognition of the public health significance of neglected tropical diseases and better knowledge of their epidemiology have stimulated necessary changes in public health thinking to approach and achieve control. This report presents evidence to demonstrate that activities undertaken to prevent and control neglected tropical diseases are producing results Ц and that achievements are being recognized.By 2008, preventive chemotherapy had reached more than 670 million people in 75 countries.
eBook
Covid-19 — The Law and Limits of Quarantine
Community transmission of the new coronavirus is occurring in several parts of the United States, and travel bans and mandatory quarantines alone cannot end the outbreak. Many public health and legal scholars believe that more constructive tools are needed.
Journal Article
Thinking Globally, Acting Locally — The U.S. Response to Covid-19
The defining feature of the U.S. response to Covid-19 has been localized action against a global threat. Under our federalist system, what more can the federal government do to promote a unified response, particularly as regards community mitigation approaches?
Journal Article
Crisis averted : the hidden science of fighting outbreaks
\"A fascinating window into the secret life of epidemiology, weaving together stories of triumph and tragedy, with a boots-on-the-ground perspective on how we can avert the next public health crisis There are few visible markers of the accomplishments of public health. If epidemiologists do their jobs, nothing happens. An outbreak does not grow into an epidemic. A child does not go hungry. A would-be smoker never lights up. These achievements are rarely noticed or celebrated, but Caitlin Rivers lives for such victories. By making sure that things don't happen, she and legions of scientists, practitioners, and policymakers change the course of history. We have many of the tools and experiences needed to prevent the next crisis, but countless challenges remain, including constantly emerging pathogens, the rapid growth of biotechnology, and the inconsistent cycles of funding for government organizations like the CDC. Progress can be slow, even with the next pandemic potentially right around the corner, but the unsung heroes in public health remain focused on their missions. Crisis Averted is their story-from the eradication of smallpox in the 20th century to today's safeguards against extraterrestrial germs. By taking a candid look at how we solve problems in public health, Caitlin Rivers illuminates the role of epidemiology in all our lives and lays out the case for what can be accomplished, given sufficient vision, leadership, and resources. Crisis Averted is an inspiring and galvanizing clarion call for us to work together towards a healthier, more resilient future\"-- Provided by publisher.
BOOK
Americans’ COVID-19 Stress, Coping, and Adherence to CDC Guidelines
ImportanceDocumenting Americans’ stress responses to an unprecedented pandemic and their degree of adherence to CDC guidelines is essential for mental health interventions and policy-making.ObjectiveTo provide the first snapshot of immediate impact of COVID-19 on Americans’ stress, coping, and guideline adherence.DesignData were collected from an online workers’ platform for survey research (Amazon’s Mechanical Turk) from April 7 to 9, 2020. The current data represents the baseline of a longitudinal study. Best practices for ensuring high-quality data were employed.ParticipantsIndividuals who are 18 years of age or older, living in the USA, and English-speaking were eligible for the study. Of 1086 unique responses, 1015 completed responses are included.SettingPopulation-based.Main OutcomesExposure to and stressfulness of COVID-19 stressors, coping strategies, and adherence to CDC guidelines.ResultsThe sample was 53.9% women (n = 547), with an average age of 38.9 years (SD = 13.50, range = 18–88), most of whom were White (n = 836, 82.4%), non-Hispanic (n = 929, 91.5%), and straight/heterosexual (n = 895, 88.2%); 40% were currently married (n = 407), and 21.6% (n = 219) were caregivers. About half (50.5%) endorsed having at least “mostly” enough money to meet their needs. Respondents’ locations across the USA ranged from 18.5% in the Northeast to 37.8% in the South. The most commonly experienced stressors were reading/hearing about the severity and contagiousness of COVID-19, uncertainty about length of quarantine and social distancing requirements, and changes to social and daily personal care routines. Financial concerns were rated most stressful. Younger age, female gender, and caregiver status increased risk for stressor exposure and greater degree of stressfulness. The most frequently reported strategies to manage stress were distraction, active coping, and seeking emotional social support. CDC guideline adherence was generally high, but several key social distancing and hygiene behaviors showed suboptimal adherence, particularly for men and younger adults.Conclusions and RelevanceAmericans have high COVID-19 stress exposure and some demographic subgroups appear particularly vulnerable to stress effects. Subgroups less likely to adhere to CDC guidelines may benefit from targeted information campaigns. these findings may guide mental health interventions and inform policy-making regarding implications of specific public health measures.
Journal Article