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Understanding the earth system : global change science for application
\"Explaining the what, the how and the why of climate science, this multidisciplinary new book provides a review of research from the last decade, illustrated with cutting-edge data and observations. A key focus is the development of analysis tools that can be used to demonstrate options for mitigating and adapting to increasing climate risks. Emphasis is given to the importance of Earth system feedback mechanisms and the role of the biosphere. The book explains advances in modelling, process understanding and observations, and the development of consistent and coherent studies of past, present and 'possible' climates. This highly-illustrated, data-rich book is written by leading scientists involved in QUEST, a major UK-led research programme. It forms a concise and up-to-date reference for academic researchers or students in the fields of climatology, Earth system science and ecology, and also a vital resource for professionals and policymakers working on any aspect of global change\"-- Provided by publisher.
Book
A coupling model for global average water vapor and temperature change
Based on dynamic climatology and meteorological observation data from 1900 to 2000, a water vapor dynamics radiative convection model is established to project the impact of water vapor dynamics on global average temperature under the warming trend. By combining with the water vapor perturbation equation and the cloud cover projection by machine learning, the coupling between the water vapor and temperature, the perturbation of humidity and the parameterization of cloud cover can be described and analyzed in detail. Validation against historical data from seven meteorological agencies show that this coupling model can make efficient projection of the global average surface temperature and specific humidity from 2000 to 2020. The forecast earth surface temperature from 2020 to 2050 by the model will increase year by year and fluctuates randomly within a temperature interval. Comparing the projection results of this model with those of the dry atmosphere model, it can be concluded that the dynamics and coupling of water vapor can moderate the warming trend on the surface of the Earth. Comparing with the projection of decoupled model with fixed specific humidity, the positive feedback effect of water vapor can increase the warming trend of the atmosphere by at least 6%. Therefore, the coupling of water vapor and global average temperature change is an important component of climate change.
Journal Article
Planetary wave seasonality from meteor wind measurements at 7.4° S and 22.7° S
In this study we have used wind observation data from the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT) region, obtained from meteor radar measurements in São João do Cariri (7.4° S, 36.5° W) from July 2004 to December 2008 and in Cachoeira Paulista (22.7° S, 45.0° W) from January 2002 to July 2006 and from September 2007 to November 2008. From the spectral analysis it was possible to identify the presence of planetary-scale oscillations in the hourly winds for the two latitudes and to study their transient character, which allowed elaboration of a climatology of planetary oscillation signatures. Planetary waves with periods near 2-days, 6–7 days, and 16 days were focussed on in this study. The quasi-2-day waves in the meteoric winds showed a seasonal cycle, with intense amplitudes occurring after the austral summer solstice and extending until the end of the season. The vertical wavelengths of the 2-day wave over Cachoeira Paulista were larger than those at São João do Cariri. A possible modulation of the quasi-2-day wave amplitudes by the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) has been observed only at São João do Cariri. The 6–7 day oscillations presented more intense amplitudes during August–November but were present with lower amplitudes during March–April at both sites. The 6–7 day vertical wavelengths over São João do Cariri were larger than at Cachoeira Paulista. The 6–7 day amplitudes exhibited intra-seasonal and annual behavior, however, there was no clear evidence of QBO modulation. The 16-day oscillations showed a seasonal cycle at São João do Cariri, with amplifications from austral spring to mid-summer and weaker amplitudes from autumn until early winter, however, there was no clear seasonality over Cachoeira Paulista. The 16-day vertical wavelengths have assumed values of λz ~ 45–85 km over both sites. 16-day wave amplitudes at the two sites showed different long-term behaviors.
Journal Article
Regional effects of synoptic situations on soil drought in the Czech Republic
Soil drought has an important influence on plant development. The SoilClim model was used to investigate episodes of soil drought at the 0–100-cm profile during the 1961–2017 period for four selected regions of the Czech Republic (North-western Bohemia, Southern Bohemia, North-eastern Moravia, and Southern Moravia). It emerged that the frequency of soil drought significantly increases in the summer half-year (SHY) and exhibits insignificant trends in the winter half-year (WHY). The dynamic climatology of soil drought is based herein upon synoptic situations as classified by the Czech Hydrometeorological Institute, in terms of which changes in the occurrence and precipitation intensity of drought episodes in the four individual regions were studied. Drought episodes are generally related to decreases in the frequency of precipitation-rich situations and in their precipitation intensity. This is particularly true for situations C (central cyclone over central Europe), B (trough over central Europe), and Bp (travelling trough). Situations B and Bp, together with south-west cyclonic situations SWc1–3, appeared as the most relevant to regional differences in drought episodes during SHY in the four regions studied, while western cyclonic situations (Wc and Wcs) emerged as particularly important in WHY. Regional differences are clearly marked between the Bohemian and Moravian regions, especially in SHY. Discussion of the results obtained concentrates on the uncertainty of soil drought data, differences between SHY and WHY, the effects of synoptic situations, and the broader context of soil droughts.
Journal Article
Synoptic–Dynamic Climatology of the Aleutian High
A climatology of the anticyclone that commonly appears over the Aleutian Islands in the wintertime Northern Hemisphere stratosphere is presented. Applying a geometric moments technique to a reanalysis dataset and updating a previously published definition, 68 Aleutian high (AH) events have been identified during 35 winter (October–March) seasons (1979/80–2013/14), or about 2 events per season. The events lasted an average of approximately 33 days. Thirteen of the 68 AH events each temporally and spatially coincided with tropospheric blocking identified with a wave-breaking definition, while 41 of the AH onsets each coincided with a persistently positive geopotential height anomaly in the troposphere. Also, 41 of the 68 AH events each coincided with or were followed by an objectively defined disturbance (split or displacement) to the stratospheric polar vortex. Finally, 47 of these disturbance events were each preceded by an AH onset, such that in almost all winters (33 out of 35), an early season AH was followed by a later-season polar vortex disturbance (PVD). Potential vorticity (PV) inversion revealed that the geopotential height rises associated with composite AH onset were forced primarily by anticyclonic PV increases in the stratosphere, with the troposphere providing a lesser contribution. Poleward eddy heat fluxes in the stratosphere preceded and especially followed composite AH onset, consistent with the findings that composite AH onset was forced primarily by anticyclonic PV increases in the stratosphere and that many AH onsets were each followed by a PVD onset.
Journal Article
Comparison of the long-term trends in stratospheric dynamics of four reanalyses
Since the long-term trends of different atmospheric parameters have been already studied separately in many papers, this study is focused on the stratospheric wind (zonal and meridional components) and temperature over the whole globe at 10 hPa during 1979–2015. We present the trends for the whole winter (October–March), for each individual month of winter and separately for the period before and after the ozone trend turnaround during the mid-1990s. The change of ozone trends has a clear impact on trends in other investigated stratospheric parameters. Four reanalyses (MERRA, ERA-Interim, JRA-55 and NCEP-DOE) are used for comparison. Every grid point is analysed, not zonal averages. The comparison of trends in meridional wind, which is closely connected with Brewer–Dobson circulation, shows a good agreement for all four reanalyses (main features and amplitudes of the trends) in terms of winter averages, but there are some differences in individual months, particularly in trend amplitude. These results could be important for studying dynamics (transport) in the whole stratosphere.
Journal Article
mathematical theory of large-scale atmosphere/ocean flow
This book counteracts the current fashion for theories of \"chaos\" and unpredictability by describing a theory that underpins the surprising accuracy of current deterministic weather forecasts, and it suggests that further improvements are possible. The book does this by making a unique link between an exciting new branch of mathematics called \"optimal transportation\" and existing classical theories of the large-scale atmosphere and ocean circulation. It is then possible to solve a set of simple equations proposed many years ago by Hoskins which are asymptotically valid on large scales, and use them to derive quantitative predictions about many large-scale atmospheric and oceanic phenomena. A particular feature is that the simple equations used have highly predictable solutions, thus suggesting that the limits of deterministic predictability of the weather may not yet have been reached. It is also possible to make rigorous statements about the large-scale behaviour of the atmosphere and ocean by proving results using these simple equations and applying them to the real system allowing for the errors in the approximation. There are a number of other titles in this field, but they do not treat this large-scale regime.
eBook
An Evaluation of Decadal Probability Forecasts from State-of-the-Art Climate Models
While state-of-the-art models of Earth’s climate system have improved tremendously over the last 20 years, nontrivial structural flaws still hinder their ability to forecast the decadal dynamics of the Earth system realistically. Contrasting the skill of these models not only with each other but also with empirical models can reveal the space and time scales on which simulation models exploit their physical basis effectively and quantify their ability to add information to operational forecasts. The skill of decadal probabilistic hindcasts for annual global-mean and regional-mean temperatures from the EU Ensemble-Based Predictions of Climate Changes and Their Impacts (ENSEMBLES) project is contrasted with several empirical models. Both the ENSEMBLES models and a “dynamic climatology” empirical model show probabilistic skill above that of a static climatology for global-mean temperature. The dynamic climatology model, however, often outperforms the ENSEMBLES models. The fact that empirical models display skill similar to that of today’s state-of-the-art simulation models suggests that empirical forecasts can improve decadal forecasts for climate services, just as in weather, medium-range, and seasonal forecasting. It is suggested that the direct comparison of simulation models with empirical models becomes a regular component of large model forecast evaluations. Doing so would clarify the extent to which state-of-the-art simulation models provide information beyond that available from simpler empirical models and clarify current limitations in using simulation forecasting for decision support. Ultimately, the skill of simulation models based on physical principles is expected to surpass that of empirical models in a changing climate; their direct comparison provides information on progress toward that goal, which is not available in model–model intercomparisons.
Journal Article
The Climatology of Significant Tornadoes in the Czech Republic
In the Czech Republic, tornadoes may reach an intensity of F2 and F3 on the Fujita scale, causing “considerable” to “severe” damage. Documentary evidence is sufficient to allow the creation of a chronology of such events, from the earliest recorded occurrence in 1119 CE (Common Era) to 2019, including a total of 108 proven or probable significant tornadoes on 90 separate days. Since only 11 significant tornadoes were documented before 1800, this basic analysis centers around the 1811–2019 period, during which 97 tornadoes were recorded. Their frequency of occurrence was at its highest in the 1921–1930, 1931–1940, and 2001–2010 decades. In terms of annual variations, they took place most frequently in July, June, and August (in order of frequency), while daily variation favored the afternoon and early evening hours. Conservative estimates of human casualties mention 8 fatalities and over 95 people injured. The most frequent types of damage were related to buildings, individual trees, and forests. Tornadoes of F2–F3 intensity were particularly associated with synoptic types characterized by airflow from the western quadrant together with troughs of low pressure extending or advancing over central Europe. Based on parameters calculated from the ERA-5 re-analysis for the period of 1979–2018, most of these tornadoes occurred over a wide range of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) values and moderate-to-strong vertical wind shear. The discussion herein also addresses uncertainties in tornado selection from documentary data, the broader context of Czech significant tornadoes, and the environmental conditions surrounding their origins.
Journal Article
Climatology of thermospheric neutral winds over Oukaïmeden Observatory in Morocco
In order to explore coupling between the thermosphere and ionosphere and to address the lack of data relating to thermospheric neutral winds and temperatures over the African sector, a new system of instruments was installed at the Oukaïmeden Observatory located in the high Atlas Mountains, 75 km south of Marrakesh, Morocco (31.206° N, 7.866° W, 22.84° N magnetic). In this work we present the first multi-year results of the climatology of meridional and zonal winds obtained during the period from January 2014 to February 2016, including observations from 648 nights. The measurements are obtained using an imaging Fabry–Pérot interferometer, which measures the 630.0 nm emissions caused by dissociative recombination of O2+. The basic climatology of the winds is as expected, showing zonal winds that are strongly eastward in the early evening just after sunset with a speed of 50 to 100 m s−1 decreasing in magnitude, and reversing directions in the local summer months, towards sunrise. The meridional winds are slightly poleward in the early evening during the local winter, before reversing directions around 21:00 LT. In the local summer months, the meridional winds are equatorward for the entire night, reaching a maximum equatorward speed of 75 m s−1. We compare the observed climatologies of neutral winds to that provided by the recently updated Horizontal Wind Model (HWM14) in order to validate that model's predictions of the thermospheric wind patterns over the eastern portion of Africa. The model captures much of the features in the observational climatologies. The most notable exception is for the zonal winds during local summer, when the maximum eastward wind in the observations occurs approximately 4 h later than seen in the model results.
Journal Article