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"Dynamo theory"
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Solar cycle prediction
A review of solar cycle prediction methods and their performance is given, including early forecasts for Cycle 25. The review focuses on those aspects of the solar cycle prediction problem that have a bearing on dynamo theory. The scope of the review is further restricted to the issue of predicting the amplitude (and optionally the epoch) of an upcoming solar maximum no later than right after the start of the given cycle. Prediction methods form three main groups.
Precursor methods
rely on the value of some measure of solar activity or magnetism at a specified time to predict the amplitude of the following solar maximum. The choice of a good precursor often implies considerable physical insight: indeed, it has become increasingly clear that the transition from purely empirical precursors to
model-based methods
is continuous. Model-based approaches can be further divided into two groups: predictions based on surface flux transport models and on consistent dynamo models. The implicit assumption of precursor methods is that each numbered solar cycle is a consistent unit in itself, while solar activity seems to consist of a series of much less tightly intercorrelated individual cycles.
Extrapolation methods,
in contrast, are based on the premise that the physical process giving rise to the sunspot number record is statistically homogeneous, i.e., the mathematical regularities underlying its variations are the same at any point of time, and therefore it lends itself to analysis and forecasting by time series methods. In their overall performance during the course of the last few solar cycles, precursor methods have clearly been superior to extrapolation methods. One method that has yielded predictions consistently in the right range during the past few solar cycles is the polar field precursor. Nevertheless, some extrapolation methods may still be worth further study. Model based forecasts are quickly coming into their own, and, despite not having a long proven record, their predictions are received with increasing confidence by the community.
Journal Article
A history of solar activity over millennia
Presented here is a review of present knowledge of the long-term behavior of solar activity on a multi-millennial timescale, as reconstructed using the indirect proxy method. The concept of solar activity is discussed along with an overview of the special indices used to quantify different aspects of variable solar activity, with special emphasis upon sunspot number. Over long timescales, quantitative information about past solar activity can only be obtained using a method based upon indirect proxies, such as the cosmogenic isotopes
14
C and
10
Be in natural stratified archives (e.g., tree rings or ice cores). We give an historical overview of the development of the proxy-based method for past solar-activity reconstruction over millennia, as well as a description of the modern state. Special attention is paid to the verification and cross-calibration of reconstructions. It is argued that this method of cosmogenic isotopes makes a solid basis for studies of solar variability in the past on a long timescale (centuries to millennia) during the Holocene. A separate section is devoted to reconstructions of strong solar energetic-particle (SEP) events in the past, that suggest that the present-day average SEP flux is broadly consistent with estimates on longer timescales, and that the occurrence of extra-strong events is unlikely. Finally, the main features of the long-term evolution of solar magnetic activity, including the statistics of grand minima and maxima occurrence, are summarized and their possible implications, especially for solar/stellar dynamo theory, are discussed.
Journal Article
A secular variation candidate model for IGRF-13 based on Swarm data and ensemble inverse geodynamo modelling
This paper describes the design of a candidate secular variation model for the 13th generation of the International Geomagnetic Reference Field. This candidate is based upon the integration of an ensemble of 100 numerical models of the geodynamo between epochs 2019.0 and 2025.0. The only difference between each ensemble member lies in the initial condition that is used for the numerical integration, all other control parameters being fixed. An initial condition is defined as follows: an estimate of the magnetic field and its rate-of-change at the core surface for 2019.0 is obtained from a year (2018.5–2019.5) of vector Swarm data. This estimate (common to all ensemble members) is subject to prior constraints: the statistical properties of the numerical dynamo model for the main geomagnetic field and its secular variation, and prescribed covariances for the other sources. One next considers 100 three-dimensional core states (in terms of flow, buoyancy and magnetic fields) extracted at different discrete times from a dynamo simulation that is not constrained by observations, with the time distance between each state exceeding the dynamo decorrelation time. Each state is adjusted (in three dimensions) in order to take the estimate of the geomagnetic field and its rate-of-change for 2019.0 into account. This methodology provides 100 different initial conditions for subsequent numerical integration of the dynamo model up to epoch 2025.0. Focussing on the 2020.0–2025.0 time window, we use the median average rate-of-change of each Gauss coefficient of the ensemble and its statistics to define the geomagnetic secular variation over that time frame and its uncertainties.
Journal Article
A set of codes for numerical convection and geodynamo calculations
We present a set of codes for calculating and displaying solutions to diverse problems within thermal convection and magnetic field generation in rotating fluid-filled spheres and spherical shells. There are diverse programs for the kinematic dynamo problem, the onset of thermal convection, and boundary-locked thermal convection, and time-stepping codes for non-magnetic convection and the dynamo with either homogeneous or spatially varying thermal boundary conditions. Where possible, all programs have been benchmarked against other codes and tested by reproducing previously published results. Each program comes with the complete source code, a pdf instruction manual, and at least one example run with a sample input file and all necessary files for describing an initial condition. The only prerequisite for running most of the codes is a FORTRAN compiler. The plotting programs require in addition the PGPLOT graphics library. All source code, examples, input files, solutions, and instructions are available for download from github and Zenodo.
Journal Article
Flow and magnetic structures in a kinematic ABC-dynamo
Dynamo theory describes the magnetic field induced by the rotating, convecting and electrically conducting fluid in a celestial body. The classical ABC-flow model represents fast dynamo action, required to sustain such a magnetic field. In this letter, Lagrangian coherent structures (LCSs) in the ABC-flow are detected through Finite-time Lyapunov exponents (FTLE). The flow skeleton is identified by extracting intersections between repelling and attracting LCSs. For the case
A
=
B
=
C
= 1, the skeleton structures are made up from lines connecting two different types of stagnation points in the ABC-flow. The corresponding kinematic ABC-dynamo problem is solved using a spectral method, and the distribution of cigar-like magnetic structures visualized. Inherent links are found to exist between LCSs in the ABC-flow and induced magnetic structures, which provides insight into the mechanism behind the ABC-dynamo.
Journal Article
Dynamo models of the solar cycle
This paper reviews recent advances and current debates in modeling the solar cycle as a hydromagnetic dynamo process. Emphasis is placed on (relatively) simple dynamo models that are nonetheless detailed enough to be comparable to solar cycle observations. After a brief overview of the dynamo problem and of key observational constraints, I begin by reviewing the various magnetic field regeneration mechanisms that have been proposed in the solar context. I move on to a presentation and critical discussion of extant solar cycle models based on these mechanisms, followed by a discussion of recent magnetohydrodynamical simulations of solar convection generating solar-like large-scale magnetic cycles. I then turn to the origin and consequences of fluctuations in these models and simulations, including amplitude and parity modulation, chaotic behavior, and intermittency. The paper concludes with a discussion of our current state of ignorance regarding various key questions relating to the explanatory framework offered by dynamo models of the solar cycle.
Journal Article
Simulations of Solar and Stellar Dynamos and Their Theoretical Interpretation
We review the state of the art of three dimensional numerical simulations of solar and stellar dynamos. We summarize fundamental constraints of numerical modelling and the techniques to alleviate these restrictions. Brief summary of the relevant observations that the simulations seek to capture is given. We survey the current progress of simulations of solar convection and the resulting large-scale dynamo. We continue to studies that model the Sun at different ages and to studies of stars of different masses and evolutionary stages. Both simulations and observations indicate that rotation, measured by the Rossby number which is the ratio of rotation period and convective turnover time, is a key ingredient in setting the overall level and characteristics of magnetic activity. Finally, efforts to understand global 3D simulations in terms of mean-field dynamo theory are discussed.
Journal Article
A history of solar activity over millennia
Here we review present knowledge of the long-term behaviour of solar activity on a multi-millennial timescale, as reconstructed using the indirect proxy method. The concept of solar activity is discussed along with an overview of the dedicated indices used to quantify different aspects of variable solar activity, with special emphasis on sunspot numbers. Over long timescales, quantitative information about past solar activity is historically obtained using a method based on indirect proxies, such as cosmogenic isotopes
14
C and
10
Be in natural stratified archives (e.g., tree rings or ice cores). We give a historical overview of the development of the proxy-based method for past solar-activity reconstruction over millennia, as well as a description of the modern state of the art. Special attention is paid to the verification and cross-calibration of reconstructions. It is argued that the method of cosmogenic isotopes makes a solid basis for studies of solar variability in the past on a long timescale (centuries to millennia) during the Holocene (the past
∼
12 millennia). A separate section is devoted to reconstructions of extremely rare solar eruptive events in the past, based on both cosmogenic-proxy data in terrestrial and lunar natural archives, as well as statistics of sun-like stars. Finally, the main features of the long-term evolution of solar magnetic activity, including the statistics of grand minima and maxima occurrence, are summarized and their possible implications, especially for solar/stellar dynamo theory, are discussed.
Journal Article
The turbulent dynamo
The generation of a magnetic field in an electrically conducting fluid generally involves the complicated nonlinear interaction of flow turbulence, rotation and field. This dynamo process is of great importance in geophysics, planetary science and astrophysics, since magnetic fields are known to play a key role in the dynamics of these systems. This paper gives an introduction to dynamo theory for the fluid dynamicist. It proceeds by laying the groundwork, introducing the equations and techniques that are at the heart of dynamo theory, before presenting some simple dynamo solutions. The problems currently exercising dynamo theorists are then introduced, along with the attempts to make progress. The paper concludes with the argument that progress in dynamo theory will be made in the future by utilising and advancing some of the current breakthroughs in neutral fluid turbulence such as those in transition, self-sustaining processes, turbulence/mean-flow interaction, statistical and data-driven methods and maintenance and loss of balance.
Journal Article