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In coming decades, global climate changes are expected to produce large shifts in vegetation distributions at unprecedented rates. These shifts are expected to be most rapid and extreme at ecotones, the boundaries between ecosystems, particularly those in semiarid landscapes. However, current models do not adequately provide for such rapid effects--particularly those caused by mortality--largely because of the lack of data from field studies. Here we report the most rapid landscape-scale shift of a woody ecotone ever documented: in northern New Mexico in the 1950s, the ecotone between semiarid ponderosa pine forest and pinon-juniper woodland shifted extensively (2 km or more) and rapidly (5 years) through mortality of ponderosa pines in response to a severe drought. This shift has persisted for 40 years. Forest patches within the shift zone became much more fragmented, and soil erosion greatly accelerated. The rapidity and the complex dynamics of the persistent shift point to the need to represent more accurately these dynamics, especially the mortality factor, in assessments of the effects of climate change

Abrams describes and explains the widespread expansion of red maple in eastern forests. The red maple, a super-generalist, has low resource requirements and does many things reasonably well in a wide variety of ecological conditions.

Robinson Forest in eastern Kentucky is one of our most important natural landscapes-and one of the most threatened. Covering fourteen thousand acres of some of the most diverse forest region in temperate North America, it is a haven of biological richness within an ever-expanding desert created by mountaintop removal mining. Written by two people with deep knowledge of Robinson Forest, The Embattled Wilderness engagingly portrays this singular place as it persuasively appeals for its protection. The land comprising Robinson Forest was given to the University of Kentucky in 1923 after it had been clear-cut of old-growth timber. Over decades, the forest has regrown, and its remarkable ecosystem has supported both teaching and research. But in the recent past, as tuition has risen and state support has faltered, the university has considered selling logging and mining rights to parcels of the forest, leading to a student-led protest movement and a variety of other responses. In The Embattled Wilderness Erik Reece, an environmental writer, and James J. Krupa, a naturalist and evolutionary biologist, alternate chapters on the cultural and natural history of the place. While Reece outlines the threats to the forest and leads us to new ways of thinking about its value, Krupa assembles an engaging record of the woodrats and darters, lichens and maples, centipedes and salamanders that make up the forest's ecosystem. It is a readable yet rigorous, passionate yet reasoned summation of what can be found, or lost, in Robinson Forest and other irreplaceable places.

Fossils document the existence of trees and wood-associated organisms from almost 400 million years ago, and today there are between 400,000 and 1 million wood-inhabiting species in the world. This is the first book to synthesise the natural history and conservation needs of wood-inhabiting organisms. Presenting a thorough introduction to biodiversity in decaying wood, the book studies the rich diversity of fungi, insects and vertebrates that depend upon dead wood. It describes the functional diversity of these organisms and their specific habitat requirements in terms of host trees, decay phases, tree dimensions, microhabitats and the surrounding environment. Recognising the threats posed by timber extraction and forest management, the authors also present management options for protecting and maintaining the diversity of these species in forests as well as in agricultural landscapes and urban parks.

The age structure in 1876, the last year of the natural frequent-fire regime, of an unharvested ponderosa pine forest in northern Arizona was reconstructed from living and dead dendrochronological samples. Approximately 20% of the trees were >200 yr old in 1876 with ages ranging to 540 yr. If dead trees had not been included in the reconstruction, the distribution would have been biased toward younger trees and a 40% shorter age range. The presettlement age distribution was multimodal with broad peaks of establishment, consistent with the model of regeneration in \"safe sites\" where herbaceous competition and fire thinning are reduced. Although fire disturbance regimes and climatic conditions varied over the centuries before 1876, a clear relationship between these variations and tree establishment was not observed. Due to fire exclusion, reduced grass competition, and favorable climatic events, high levels of regeneration in the 20th century raised forest density from 60 trees/ha in 1876 to >3000 trees/ha in 1992. An ecological restoration experiment initiated in 1993 conserved all living presettlement trees and reduced the density of young trees to near-presettlement levels. Two important components for evaluating the restoration treatment effects are monitoring of old-tree persistence and patterns of future regeneration in the context of the presettlement reference age structure.

This study identifies patterns in the gap disturbance regime along a successional gradient in the southern boreal forest and uses this information to investigate canopy composition changes. Gaps were characterized in hardwood, mixed-forest, and conifer stands surrounding Lake Duparquet in northwestern Quebec. From 39 to 80 gaps were evaluated along transects established in each of these stands. The abundance of gap makers and gap fillers and total regeneration was evaluated by species, as well as the size of each gap encountered along the transects. The percentage of the forest in canopy gap was calculated directly from the proportion of the transect in gap and by using gap area and line-intercept techniques. Changes in composition were evaluated from gap-maker and gap-filler distributions and by using transition matrices based on species mortality and regeneration in canopy gaps. The percentage of the forest in canopy gap ranges from 7.1% in a 50-yr-old forest dominated primarily by aspen to 40.4% in a 234-yr-old fir-dominated forest. Gap events are due to individual or small-group tree mortality in the early successional forest but become species-specific events controlled by spruce budworm outbreaks in the later stages of succession. Due to the high latitude, direct light only reaches the forest floor in the very largest gaps of the conifer-dominated stands. However, these gaps form slowly as budworm-caused mortality occurs over a number of years, whereas in aspen-dominated stands gaps are formed quickly by the snapping of tree stems. Balsam fir is the most abundant gap-filling species; however, its abundance is negatively correlated to gap size in all stand types. Markovian transition matrices suggest that in the young aspen-dominated forests small gaps lead to species replacment by more shade-tolerant conifers but that in the oldest forests the larger gaps will result in maintenance of the intolerant species and an increase in the abundance of cedar.

Intraspecific density-dependent effects in the Barro Colorado Island (Panama) study area are far stronger, and involve far more species, than previously had been suspected. Significant effects on recruitment, many extremely strong, are seen for 67 out of the 84 most common species in the plot, including the 10 most common. Significant effects on the intrinsic rate of increase are seen in 54 of the 84 species. These effects are far more common than interspecific effects, and are predominantly of the type that should maintain tree diversity. As a result, the more diverse an area in the forest is, the higher is the overall rate of increase of the trees in that area, although sheer crowding has by itself a negative effect. These findings are consistent with, but do not prove, an important role for host-pathogen interactions (defined broadly) in the maintenance of diversity. Ways are suggested by which to test host-pathogen models and competing models

With a view toward understanding species-specific differences in juvenile tree mortality and the community-level implications of these differences, we characterized juvenile survivorship of 10 dominant tree species of oak transition-northern hardwood forests using species-specific mathematical models. The mortality models predict a sapling's probability of dying as a function of its recent growth history. These models and species-specific growth functions (published elsewhere), characterize a species' shade tolerance. Combined growth and mortality models express a sapling's probability of mortality as a function of light availability. We describe the statistical bases and the field methods used to calibrate the mortality models. We examined inter- and intraspecific variation in juvenile mortality across three sites: Great Mountain Forest (low pH, nutrient poor soils) in northwestern Connecticut, a calcareous bedrock region (neutral pH, nutrient rich soils) also in northwestern Connecticut, and a site in central-western Michigan (low pH, nutrient poor soils). Interspecific differences in juvenile mortality have profound effects on community dynamics and composition; the importance of these effects is demonstrated through a spatially explicit simulator of forest dynamics (SORTIE). The 10 species we examined occupy a continuum of survivorship levels at 1% of full sun. There was surprisingly little intraspecific variation in mortality functions for sugar maple, American beech, eastern hemlock, and white ash between the Great Mountain and Michigan sites. However, there was a striking increase in survivorship for sugar maple in the calcareous site. Differences in survivorship among the sites are correlated with soil pH and presumably nutrient availability. Growth rates in high-light and low-light survivorship are inversely correlated across species; as level of shade tolerance increases, a species grows more slowly in high light and exhibits increased survivorship under low light. Our results indicate that interspecific differences in sapling mortality are critical components of forest community dynamics.

A spatial and mechanistic model is developed for the dynamics of transition oak-northern hardwoods forests in northeastern North America. The purpose of the model is to extrapolate from measurable fine-scale and short-term interactions among individual trees to large-scale and long-term dynamics of forest communities. Field methods, statistical estimators, and model structure were designed simultaneously to ensure that parameters could be estimated from data collected in the field. This paper documents eight aspects of a three-year study to calibrate, test, and analyze the model for the nine dominant and subdominant tree species in transition oak-northern hardwoods forests: 1) Design and structure of the model. The model makes population dynamic forecasts by predicting the fate of every individual tree throughout its life. Species-specific functions predict each tree's dispersal, establishment, growth, mortality, and fecundity. Trees occupy unique spatial positions, and individual performance is affected by the local availability of resources. Competition is mechanistic; resources available to each tree are reduced by neighbors. Although the model was developed to include light, water, and nitrogen, the version described here includes only competition for light (shading and light-dependent performance) because the field data provide little evidence of competition for nitrogen and water over the range of sites examined. 2) Estimates of the model's parameters for each species. The estimates reveal a variety of \"strategic trade-offs\" among the species. For example, species that grow quickly under high light tend to cast relatively little shade, have low survivorship under low light, and have high dispersal. In contrast, species that grow slowly under high light tend to cast relatively dark shade, and to have high survivorship under low light and low dispersal. These trade-offs define one of two dominant \"axes\" of strategic variation. 3) Community level predictions of the model. The model predicts succession from early dominance by species such as Quercus rubra and Prunus serotina, to late dominance by Fagus grandifolia and Tsuga canadensis, with Betula alleganiensis present as a gap phase species in old-growth stands. The model also predicts that old-growth communities will have intraspecifically clumped and interspecifically segregated spatial distributions. 4) An error analysis that identifies community level predictions that are robust given the level of sampling uncertainty in the study. This analysis translates the statistical uncertainty associated with each parameter estimate into statistical uncertainty in the model's predictions. The robust predictions include those mentioned in aspect (3) above. 5) Sensitivity of the model to changes in initial conditions and to changes in the three parameters not included in the error analysis. For example, the model predicts that initial abundances continue to affect community composition well into succession (> 300 yr for some species). 6) Tests of the system- and community-level predictions of the model against independent data gleaned from other studies. These tests support the predictions found to be robust in the error analysis, including those predictions mentioned in aspect (3) above. 7) Modeling experiments that determine which aspects of individual performance and inter-neighbor competition are responsible for each of the robust predictions identified in aspect (4) above and tested in aspect (6) above. This analysis reveals a wide variety of causal relationships, with most parameters contributing to at least one community level phenomenon. 8) An explanation of the diversity of individual level causes identified in aspect (7). The two \"axes\" describing most of the strategic variation among the species (see [2]), provide a simple explanation of community level pattern in terms of individual level processes.

We studied the invasion of a New Zealand mountain beech (Nothofagus solandri var. cliffortioides) forest by the exotic perennial herb, Hieracium lepidulum. We used data from 250 randomly located permanent plots (400 m2) established in 1970 that sampled 9000 ha of forest. Frequency of H. lepidulum was 11%, 43%, and 57% in 1970, 1985, and 1993, respectively. For each year of measurement, invasion patterns were related to (a) distance to the forest margin as a measure of dispersal limitation, (b) community structure, (c) stem biomass dynamics indicating disturbance history, and (b) environmental characteristics. In 1970, invaded plots had more species and lower potential solar radiation, and they were closer to the forest margin; however, invaded plots were only weakly predicted by these site variables. H. lepidulum also invaded relatively species-rich subplots (0.75 m2) showing that community structure was also significant at a microsite scale. Using the same sets of variables, the ability to predict which plots were invaded in any year increased from 1970 to 1993. This supports our hypothesis that in early invasion stages, with dispersal limitation, an invader may occur in only a subset of suitable sites giving a weak relationship with site variables. By 1993, distance to the forest margin was no longer related to which plots were invaded, and invaded plots had more species, occurred at lower elevations on more sheltered topographic positions, and had more fertile soils than uninvaded plots. Even though site variables were not independent (e.g., plots on fertile soils tend to have more species), multiple logistic regression showed that, all else being equal, invaded plots still tended to have more species than those not invaded. Our study therefore questions the hypothesis that, all else being equal, species-poor habitats are more prone to invasion by exotic species.