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"ECONOMIC STABILIZATION"
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Financial Crises and the Politics of Macroeconomic Adjustments
When are policy makers willing to make costly adjustments to their macroeconomic policies to mitigate balance-of-payments problems? Which types of adjustment strategies do they choose? Under what circumstances do they delay reform, and when are such delays likely to result in financial crises? To answer these questions, this book examines how macroeconomic policy adjustments affect individual voters in financially open economies and argues that the anticipation of these distributional effects influences policy makers' decisions about the timing and the type of reform. Empirically, the book combines analyses of cross-national survey data of voters' and firms' policy evaluations with comparative case studies of national policy responses to the Asian financial crisis of 1997/8 and the recent global financial crisis in Eastern Europe. The book shows that variation in policy makers' willingness to implement reform can be traced back to differences in the vulnerability profiles of their countries' electorates.
eBook
The political economy of fiscal consolidation in Japan
This book investigates the reasons for persistent public deficits and delayed fiscal reform in Japan, placing a special emphasis on political economy aspects. Japan is confronted with the need to pursue fiscal discipline for fiscal consolidation and implement structural reforms for reorganizing fiscal expenditures. Focusing on particular policy fields including social security, female labor supply, public works, and intergovernmental transfer schemes, the book clarifies economic and political elements that have hindered effective steps toward these two goals. Facing population aging and a business downturn, the Japanese government was urged to increase social security expenditures and the budget for Keynesian stimulus policies. As elucidated in the book, the institutional design has worked to over-represent the demands of elderly generations and local interest groups and to expand these expenditures. Rigorous theoretical and numerical analyses reported throughout the book consequently provide readers with insights into incentive designs and institutional reforms necessary for fiscal consolidation, also presenting points of view for public policy and public debate.
Book
Rethinking stabilization policies; Including supply-side measures and entrepreneurial processes
Traditional macroeconomic stabilization policies seek to moderate swings in economic activity through measures that primarily augment aggregate demand. Such measures are, however, inadequate in mitigating the comprehensive effects of crisis such as the COVID-19, which affects both the demand and supply sides of the economy. Moreover, monetary policies are presently close to a liquidity trap combined with weakened transmission links to the real economy. Fiscal policies have been reactivated, albeit in an ad hoc and experimental manner. Based on a literature review and the policy responses following the COVID-19 crisis, the objective is to present a modified and extended framework for stabilization policies. In particular, the importance of microeconomic supply-side measures that promote entrepreneurial processes and knowledge-upgrading efforts are emphasized. Furthermore, a coherent realigning of policies at the micro- and macro-levels is argued to enhance the potential for long-term growth and to facilitate the restructuring of an economy that normally follows a crisis.Plain English SummaryThe COVID-19 crisis makes traditional stabilization policies obsolete. Reinstate the market and redirect policy from interest rates and unconditional state support toward providing employees and firms with adequate knowledge for future challenges. Traditional crises policies seek to moderate swings in economic activity by primarily lowering interest rates and increase governmental expenditure to stimulate demand and economic activity. However, the effectiveness of both of these measures has been questioned, in particular, further reductions in already extremely low-interest rates. The present COVID-19 crisis has highlighted the importance of taking firms, entrepreneurs, trade, etc., into account, i.e., the supply side of the economy. It is argued that traditional policies should partly be replaced by measures targeting entrepreneurial processes, firm growth, innovation, and knowledge upgrading. Corporate taxes should be used to increase firms’ crisis resilience, increase investment, and encourage start-ups, while state support should be conditioned on employees engaging in knowledge upgrading. Hence, the main conclusion of this study is that such redirection of policies will more effectively level out swings in the business cycle, increase the potential for long-term growth, and make it easier for employees and firms to adjust to new economic conditions.
Journal Article
Monetary regimes and inflation : history, economic and political relationships
\"Exploring the characteristics of inflations and comparing historical cases from Roman times up to the modern day, this book provides an in depth discussion of the subject. It analyses the high and moderate inflations caused by the inflationary bias of poltiical systems and economic relationships, as well as the importance of different monetary regimes in containing them. The differences for the possible size of inflations among monetary regimes like metallic currencies, the gold standard and fiat paper money are discussed. It is shown that huge budget deficits of government have been responsible for all hyperinflations. This revised second edition debates whether a growth of the money supply exceeding that of real Gross Domestic Production is a necessary or sufficient reason for inflation and also includes a new concluding chapter, which explores the long-term tendencies to create, maintain and abolish inflation-stable monetary regimes. Moreover, the conditions for long-term inflation-stable monetary regimes in history are explored. By surveying thirty hyperinflations, Peter Bernholz demonstrates that certain economic traits have been stable characteristics of inflations over the centuries, and illustrates their causes. He also examines the consequences of high inflations for unemployment, the distortions between relative prices and the political conditions that allow a return to stable monetary regimes after high inflations, given the inflationary tendencies of political systems. This book will appeal to a wide-ranging audience, including students, economists, historians, political scientists and sociologists looking to imrpove their knowledge of monetary regimes and inflation. Bankers, businessmen and politicians attempting to solve the problems caused for them by inflation, will also find this to be a useful read\"--Back cover.
Book
Stabilization Pentagon Model: application in the management at macro- and micro-levels
The problem of instability of industries, clusters and states influences the countries’ economies. Unavoidable changes became an attribute of the strategic planning at every level. As a result, an effective tool is needed to evaluate stability at different levels in such a way that will make it possible to manage the changes. In this paper the concept of Macroeconomic Stabilization Pentagon (MSP) was analyzed for its applicability for the EU countries of low-an-middle-income economies including Ukraine. The data analysis brought new understanding of the assessment of the public policies’ effectiveness. The model has proven its efficiency not just in the sphere of public administration, but also for the micro level management. The authors proposed the Microeconomic Stabilization Pentagon to be implemented in the research at the level of enterprises
Journal Article
Putin's Labor Dilemma
In Putin's Labor
Dilemma , Stephen Crowley investigates how
the fear of labor protest has inhibited substantial economic
transformation in Russia. Putin boasts he has the backing
of workers in the country's industrial heartland, but as economic
growth slows in Russia, reviving the economy will require
restructuring the country's industrial landscape. At the same time,
doing so threatens to generate protest and instability from a key
regime constituency. However, continuing to prop up Russia's
Soviet-era workplaces, writes Crowley, could lead to declining
wages and economic stagnation, threatening protest and
instability.
Crowley explores the dynamics of a Russian labor market that
generally avoids mass unemployment, the potentially explosive role
of Russia's monotowns, conflicts generated by massive downsizing in
\"Russia's Detroit\" (Tol'yatti), and the rapid politicization of the
truck drivers movement.
Labor protests currently show little sign of threatening Putin's
hold on power, but the manner in which they are being conducted
point to substantial chronic problems that will be difficult to
resolve. Putin's Labor Dilemma demonstrates that the
Russian economy must either find new sources of economic growth or
face stagnation. Either scenario-market reforms or economic
stagnation-raises the possibility, even probability, of
destabilizing social unrest.
eBook
Fiscal Stabilization in the United States: Lessons for Monetary Unions
The debate about the use of fiscal instruments for macroeconomic stabilization has regained prominence in the aftermath of the Great Recession, and its relevance has suddenly increased further, after the recent Covid-19 shock. The analysis of fiscal stabilization in the United States, a monetary union equipped with a common fiscal capacity, has often informed the literature on the European EMU and could serve as a reference for its possible future reforms. This paper expands that literature in three ways: first, by measuring stabilization not only as inter-state risk-sharing of asymmetric shocks, but also as intertemporal stabilization of common shocks; second, by doing this for specific items in the US federal budget, both on the revenue and on the expenditure side; and third, by also measuring the impact of the federal system of unemployment benefits and of its extension as a response to the Great Recession. Corporate and personal income tax, on the revenue side, and social security benefits and federal grants, on the spending side, are the most effective items. The US federal system of unemployment insurance provides great stabilization in the event of a large shock, in particular when enhanced by the discretionary program of extended benefits. These findings imply that a proper design of the budget can maximize its stabilization effect, when it helps bridging the gap between higher mobility of capital and lower mobility of labor, by collecting revenues based on the income of the most mobile factor (corporate income tax) and providing support to the income of the least mobile factor (social security).
Journal Article