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The article is aimed at the forming approaches for the estimated probability of bankruptcy in the system of strategic management of marketing activity which serves as a tool for coordinating production and distribution of goods and services based on the customer needs, market characteristics and the development of practical measures to meet identified needs. It is proved that strategic management of marketing activity is the difficult task because it is necessary to achieve a dynamic balance between environmental factors and internal resources of the enterprise. The proposed analytical and applied support for the estimated probability of bankruptcy in the system of strategic management of marketing activity is based on the use of diagnostic expert systems that make it possible to formulate reasonable conclusions, to implement the necessary procedures aimed at the obtaining answers, to obtain the generalized results of analysis and to assess the probability of bankruptcy in a convenient form. It is substantiated the procedure for the estimated probability of bankruptcy in the context of strategic management of marketing activity providing for the formation of a set of indicators based on the selected criteria characterizing the state of the enterprise as a whole and the level of marketing activity. It is established the membership functions of the fuzzy value of the indicator to the previously introduced term-sets of the levels of the probability of bankruptcy. The results of calculating membership functions for each of the selected indicators made it possible to obtain the objective result of the estimated probability of the enterprise bankruptcy according to the selected system of indicators grouped by the activity areas in conditions of uncertainty and variability of the external environment for the current and future periods. The proposed approach for the estimated probability of the enterprise bankruptcy based on the regression mechanism of inference serves as the basis for the production of strategic management influences aimed at the stabilizing the financial condition of the enterprise by harmonizing production and sales activities in the context of marketing activity. Further areas of researches are the formation of a mechanism for strategic management of the enterprise marketing activity based on the implementation of the marketing concept in the context of the need to adapt to changing environmental conditions and consumer needs. Keywords: management, strategic management, marketing, marketing activity, bankruptcy, estimated probability of bankruptcy. JEL Classification G21, J31 Formulas: 0; fig.: 3; tabl.: 5; bibl.: 21.

To provide a scientific basis for pollution prevention and control of the urban environment, the current status of heavy-metal pollution in road dust in Harbin was studied. In total, 63 road dust samples in the main urban area of Harbin were collected, and the contents of Cd and Pb, two representative heavy metals, were detected. Using the Moran Index coupled with semi-variable function and geostatistical methods, the spatial correlation, variation structure, and distribution pattern were analyzed, and the estimated probability of the heavy metals exceeding the safety standard was determined. The study showed that: The mean concentrations of Cd and Pb were higher than the background values in Heilongjiang province, and both exhibited moderate variability, while the coefficient of variation of Cd was larger than that of Pb; Cd was weakly correlated in space and randomly distributed, Pb was moderately correlated in space and exhibited good spatial structure, and both were spatially aggregated. The optimal model for fitting the variance function showed that Cd was a spherical model, and Pb was an exponential model. The variation of Cd was mainly influenced by human factors, and the variation of Pb was influenced by both structural and random factors. The optimized interpolation results of the variance function had high accuracy, and the spatial distribution of Cd was elliptical, whereas the distribution of Pb was stripe-shaped, Cd was mainly influenced by traffic factors, such as industrial enterprise distribution and road painting, while Pb was influenced by natural factors such as river sediment or the study area belonging to a geologically high background area, in addition to the above factors. The estimated probabilities indicate a higher potential risk of Cd in the northeastern part of the study area.

We use the excess over a threshold method (see e.g. Embrechts et al. 1997) to approximate the tails of equilibrium distributions (integrated tail distributions) associated to distributions with regularly varying tail. We evaluate the performance of our approximations in some particular cases of distributions with regularly varying tails. Finally, we apply our results to the Danish reinsurance real data set.

Abstract I reexamine the conflicting results in Frank, Lynch, and Rego (2009) and Lennox, Lisowsky, and Pittman (2013). Frank et al. (2009) conclude that firms can manage book income upward and taxable income downward in the same period, implying a positive relation between aggressive book and tax reporting. Lennox et al. (2013) conclude the relation is negative and aggressive book reporting informs users that aggressive tax reporting is less likely. I identify four key differences in the research designs across the two studies, including measures of aggressive book reporting, measures of aggressive tax reporting, sample time periods, and empirical models. I systematically examine whether each of these differences is responsible for the conflicting results by altering the key difference while holding other factors as constant as possible. I find the relation between aggressive book and tax reporting is driven by the measure of aggressive book reporting, as the relation is positive for some subsets of firms and negative for others. Firms accused of financial statement fraud have a negative relation while nonfraud firms exhibit a positive relation. Using discretionary accruals, I also look for, but do not find a “pivot point” in the relation between aggressive book and tax reporting. I provide a better understanding of the relation between aggressive book and tax reporting by identifying research design choices that are responsible for prior results. I show that measures of both discretionary accruals and financial statement fraud are necessary to gain a more complete picture of the relation between aggressive book and tax reporting.

1 Local floras are being depleted by a host of human activities, including habitat destruction and fragmentation, eutrophication, and the intensification of agriculture. Species with particular ecological demands or life-history attributes are more prone to extinction than species with a broader niche. 2 We used an old herbarium from the municipality of Küsnacht (Swiss lowlands) as a historical record for comparison with contemporary plant diversity. This comparison revealed that 17% to 28% of all vascular plants that occurred between 1839 and 1915 were extinct by 2003. 3 Species of different habitats and life-forms had significantly different rates of extinction: wetlands, disturbed sites and meadows lost most species, whereas forests and rocky habitats were least affected; aquatics and annuals were most prone to extinction, geophytes and hemicryptophytes were intermediate, and phanerophytes and chamaephytes were least affected. 4 Species adapted to nutrient-poor soils suffered highest extinction in all habitats, indicating that eutrophication poses an urgent threat to species diversity. Light and soil moisture requirements also had significant effects on extinction, but the direction of the effect varied by habitat. 5 When species were grouped into IUCN categories of the red list of Switzerland, the rank order of the observed extinction matched the red list assignment. 6 Because many of the remaining species had high estimated extinction probabilities and because extinction is often delayed (extinction debt), a substantial part of the remaining flora of Küsnacht is likely to go extinct in the near future. This will increase the dominance of the common species that already comprise 81% of the local flora. 7 The rates and patterns of extinction in Küsnacht are probably representative of surrounding Swiss lowlands and peri-urban landscapes in most developed countries. Studies such as ours can serve as a call for action and form a basis for future monitoring of biodiversity.

The authors examine the challenges facing Africa's youth in their transition from school to working life, and propose a strategy for meeting these challenges. Topics covered include the effect of education on employment and income, broadening employment opportunities, and enhancing youth capabilities. Labor is the most abundant asset of poor households in Africa. Developing this asset is therefore essential to helping households move out of poverty. Strengthening the work force can also improve the investment climate, increase economic growth, and prevent instability and violence, particularly in postconflict situations, where large numbers of unemployed youth threaten security.

By international standards, health workers in Ethiopia are in short supply. In addition, those who do enter the health fields and remain in the country disproportionately live and work in the capital, Addis Ababa. This paper uses detailed data gathered from nearly 1,000 health workers to examine the incentives and constraints that health workers face when choosing where to work, the likely responses of workers to alternative incentive packages, and the longer term performance of the health worker labor market. This working paper was produced as part of the World Bank's Africa Region Health Systems for Outcomes (HSO) Program. The Program, funded by the World Bank, the Government of Norway, the Government of the United Kingdom and the Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunization (GAVI), focuses on strengthening health systems in Africa to reach the poor and achieve tangible results related to Health, Nutrition and Population. The main pillars and focus of the program center on knowledge and capacity building related to Human Resources for Health, Health Financing, Pharmaceuticals, Governance and Service Delivery, and Infrastructure and ICT.

Objective: To determine whether the Barell matrix (Inj Prev 2002;8:91–6) could effectively categorize injuries by severity. Methods: Injury diagnoses of cases in the 2002 US Nationwide Inpatient Sample were classified according to the Barell matrix. For each cell of the matrix, the authors used ICDMAP-90 to determine the predominant Abbreviated Injury Score (AIS) and body region, and calculated the weighted proportion surviving (bPScell) among patients with any diagnosis in that cell. These findings were used to estimate maximum AIS (bAISmax), ISS (bISS), and the minimum or product of bPScell (bPSmin, bPSprod) for injured patients in the 1996–2000 US National Hospital Discharge Surveys. Case survival was determined for different scores, and outcome models using age, sex, comorbidity, mechanism, and bISS or bPSmin were compared to models using ISS calculated from ICDMAP-90 (mISS) or using ICISS. Results: Case survival decreased with increasing bAISmax or bISS; survival was closely approximated by bPSmin, and also increased monotonically with bPSprod. Outcome models using bISS or bPSmin were similar to those using mISS or ICISS. An Abbreviated Barell Categorization, with only four groups, was also effective. Conclusion: Barell matrix categorization of administrative data allows severity scoring similar to that obtainable with ICDMAP-90 or ICISS.

This chapter contains sections titled: Psychological theories of diagnosis Hypothesis generation and associated errors Hypothesis testing and associated errors Knowledge base: content and structure A synthesis of the literature The role of decision support systems in reducing diagnostic errors Research implications References