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Abstract As a high-capacity transportation mode, urban rail is considered to have low per capita energy consumption and emission. The construction of urban rail can transfer the residents’ mode of travel from other high-carbon emission modes to this low-carbon emission mode, to realize the goals of energy conservation and carbon emission reduction. However, at present, there is a lack of prediction of the carbon emission reduction effects before the construction of rail transit systems, and evaluation and verification after the opening of the rail transit systems. Therefore, this study established a set of carbon emission reduction estimation models based on transportation mode transfer. A model was constructed to predict the amount of transportation mode transferred and carbon emission reduction caused by the target project, before its inception, based on the four-stage passenger flow prediction method. Following the opening of the transit system, a model based on passenger survey data to trace the source of rail transit passenger flow was constructed to estimate the carbon emission reduction. The carbon emission reduction of a rail transit line in operation in Beijing was estimated and compared by the two aforementioned methods. The results show that for the lines of good passenger flows benefit, the ex-ante evaluation approach may underestimate the carbon emission reduction effect of rail transit, but the results can still be used as an important basis for environmental assessment of engineering projects. The ex-post evaluation can be used as a more reliable carbon emission reduction accounting measure, and can also be used to adjust the ex-ante evaluation of carbon emission reduction of future rail projects.

CO 2 utilization becomes a promising solution for reducing anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Biomass-based CO 2 utilization (BCU) even has the potential to generate negative emissions, but the corresponding quantitative evaluation is limited. Herein, the biomass-based CO 2 utilization with an iron cycle (BCU-Fe) system, which converts CO 2 into formate by Fe under hydrothermal conditions and recovers Fe with biomass-derived glycerin, was investigated. The GHG reduction potential under various process designs was quantified by a multidisciplinary method, including experiments, simulations, and an ex-ante life-cycle assessment. The results reveal that the BCU-Fe system could bring considerable GHG emission reduction. Significantly, the lowest value is −34.03 kg CO 2 -eq/kg absorbed CO 2 (−2.44 kg CO 2 -eq/kg circulated Fe) with the optimal yield of formate (66%) and Fe (80%). The proposed ex-ante evaluation approach not only reveals the benefits of mitigating climate change by applying the BCU-Fe system, but also serves as a generic tool to guide the industrialization of emerging carbon-neutral technologies.

This paper examines multiple contract design choices in the context of transaction and relational attributes and consequent ex ante and ex post transaction costs. It focuses on two understudied themes in the IT outsourcing literature. First, while the literature is predominantly concerned with opportunism and consequent ex post hazard costs that contracts can safeguard against, parties to a contract also economize on ex ante transaction costs by their choice of contract type and contract extensiveness. Second, the literature studies the aggregate extensiveness of contracts rather than of distinct contract functions: safeguarding, coordination, and adaptability. Against this backdrop, our research model portrays a nuanced picture that is anchored in the following theoretical interpretation: transaction and relational attributes have implications on specific ex ante and ex post transaction costs, and these implications can be balanced by respective choices in both contract type and the extensiveness of specific contract functions. These two contract design choices complement and substitute for each other in their ability to economize on specific transaction costs. Our analysis of 210 software development outsourcing contracts finds that explanatory power increases when analyzing the extensiveness of individual contract functions rather than the aggregate contract extensiveness, highlighting subtle competing influences that are otherwise masked by an aggregate measure. Our analysis also shows that a preference for time-and-material contracts counteracts the effect of certain transaction attributes on contract extensiveness, and even cancels it out in the case of transaction uncertainty.

The agriculture sustainability assessment is a difficult issue for the coexistence of conflicting objectives and the multidimensionality of the performances. The environmental, economic and social pillars need to be simultaneously considered in an assessment to evaluate potential synergies and trade-offs of the agricultural processes within and among the attributes of the dimensions in both implemented systems (ex-post analysis) and potential options (ex-ante analysis). Among several sustainability assessment methods, tools based on multi-criteria analysis (MCA) are increasingly adopted in evaluating sustainability in agriculture. The aim of this work was to present the MCA tool developed in the framework of the BioDurum project for the sustainability assessment of organic farms located in southern Italy and characterised by durum wheat-based crop rotations. The tool was entirely designed through a participatory process and it was realised using the open-source DEXi software that have demonstrated to be particularly suitable for creating qualitative multi-criterial hierarchic models with the engage of stakeholders. The hierarchic structure of BioDurum_MCA tool was resulted composed by 64 indicators and 45 aggregated attributes articulated in three branches representing the agro-environment, economic, and social sustainability pillars. The articulated structure of the tool reflected the complexity and the sustainability issues and priorities expressed by the involved stakeholders. The tool was tested in four Italian organic farms presenting different agro-environmental and socio-economic patterns for their ex-post evaluations and in three different ex-ante production systems identified in compliance with the Italian regulation concerning the requirements of the rotations to be implemented in organic farming. The results highlighted the well discriminatory power of the tool. The best overall sustainability scores were reached in both ex-post and ex-ante analysis by the well diversified cereal farming systems with processed products sold through short supply chain mechanisms. BioDurum_MCA has proved to be a feasible tool to identify strengths and weaknesses of organic durum wheat-based production systems. Its adoption can support the definition of specific interventions for the sector in the Italian Strategic National Plan of the Common Agricultural Policy. Further improvements in the threshold classes of some indicators by using the tool in a wider number of Italian durum wheat based organic farms will increase model sensitivity and reliability of the results. Highlights - BioDurum_MCA is an effective tool for sustainability assessment of durum wheat organic Italian production systems. - Hierarchic structure of the tool reflects the sustainability issues and priorities expressed by involved stakeholders. - MCA tools can support a holistic evaluation of farm sustainability performances in the frame of post-2020 CAP.

The water quality in mountain regions of Himalaya is considered to be good and quantity adequate. However, recent reports suggest that urbanisation and population growth have been tremendous, which are impacting the land use/cover changes and also endangering the water resources both in quality and quantity. This paper elaborates the systematic investigation carried out on different attributes impacting the drinking water resources in Kullu valley. Two approaches were employed in this study: (1) ex-ante approach involving field survey and secondary data analysis from ancillary sources and (2) hydrochemical approach for the measurement of water quality parameters from springs. Results from ex-ante approach infer rise in population of about 15% during 2001–2011, which led to a significant change in land use pattern, microclimate and also increased water demand. Hydrochemistry of the water samples in the study area has indicated that the current status of spring waters is satisfactory for drinking purposes with a few incidences of high NO3− which is mostly attributed to contamination from sewage, while F−, Cl− and TDS contamination is mainly confined to hot springs. From both ex-ante approach and primary hydrochemical data it can be inferred that springs need to be restored in terms of both quantity and quality. Hydrochemical interpretation suggests two main groups of samples: (1) low TDS and Ca–Mg–Cl–HCO3 type, which are mainly recharging waters with very less interaction with the aquifer material and (ii) moderate TDS and Mg–Ca–Cl, Ca–Na–HCO3, Na–Ca–Cl–SO4 and Ca–Mg–HCO3 and have undergone water–rock interaction. Based on the inferences obtained from the Piper’s, Chadha’s and Durov’s classification no evidence of hot springs contaminating or contributing to other cold springs and shallow groundwater (hand pump) is found. The study concludes that the water resources are vulnerable to anthropogenic interventions and needs treatment prior to drinking. Periodic monitoring of water quality and adopting proper treatment procedures are essential for supplying safe and sustainable water to the community in the Kullu valley, Himachal Pradesh.

We consider a general mechanism design setting where each agent can acquire (covert) information before participating in the mechanism. The central question is whether a mechanism exists that provides the efficient incentives for information acquisition ex-ante and implements the efficient allocation conditional on the private information ex-post. It is shown that in every private value environment the Vickrey-Clark-Groves mechanism guarantees both ex-ante as well as ex-post efficiency. In contrast, with common values, ex-ante and ex-post efficiency cannot be reconciled in general. Sufficient conditions in terms of sub- and supermodularity are provided when (all) ex-post efficient mechanisms lead to private under- or over-acquisition of information.

Agriculture must face a number of very pressing environmental issues. We used the prototyping method to design three innovative cropping systems, each satisfying three ambitious goals simultaneously: (1) overcoming a major environmental constraint, which represents a major break regarding objectives to be reached in current cropping systems (differing between systems: a ban on all pesticides but with chemical nitrogen (N) fertilizer permitted; reducing fossil energy consumption by 50%; or decreasing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 50%), (2) meeting a wide range of environmental criteria and (3) maximizing yields, given the major constraint and environmental targets. A fourth cropping system was designed, in which the environmental and yield targets were achieved with no major constraint (the productive high environmental performance cropping system (PHEP) system). The performances of these innovative cropping systems were compared to a conventional system in the Ile-de-France region. We used a three-step prototyping method: (1) new cropping systems were designed on the basis of scientific and expert knowledge, (2) these system prototypes were assessed with tools and a model (ex ante assessment) adjusted to the set of constraints and targets, with optimization by an iterative process until the criteria were satisfied and (3) evaluation in a long-term field experiment (ex post assessment), which is currently underway. We describe only the first two steps here, together with the results of the prototypes assessment with tools and a model. The pesticide, energy and GHG constraints were fulfilled. All these innovative systems satisfied environmental criteria in terms of nitrogen and phosphorus management, pesticide use, energy consumption and crop diversity. For the pesticide-free system, the soil organic matter indicator was lower than expected due to frequent plowing (every 2 years) and yields were 20–50% lower than for the PHEP system, depending on the crop considered. We focus our discussions on the design methodology and the availability of scientific knowledge and tools for projects of this type.

Harsanyi's impartial observer must consider two types of lotteries: imaginary identity lotteries (“accidents of birth”) that she faces as herself and the real outcome lotteries (“life chances”) to be faced by the individuals she imagines becoming. If we maintain a distinction between identity and outcome lotteries, then Harsanyi‐like axioms yield generalized utilitarianism, and allow us to accommodate concerns about different individuals' risk attitudes and concerns about fairness. Requiring an impartial observer to be indifferent as to which individual should face similar risks restricts her social welfare function, but still allows her to accommodate fairness. Requiring an impartial observer to be indifferent between identity and outcome lotteries, however, forces her to ignore both fairness and different risk attitudes, and yields a new axiomatization of Harsanyi's utilitarianism.

While ordinary decision theory focuses on empirical uncertainty, real decision-makers also face normative uncertainty: uncertainty about value itself. From a purely formal perspective, normative uncertainty is comparable to (Harsanyian or Rawlsian) identity uncertainty in the ‘original position’, where one’s future values are unknown. A comprehensive decision theory must address twofold uncertainty – normative and empirical. We present a simple model of twofold uncertainty, and show that the most popular decision principle – maximizing expected value (‘Expectationalism’) – has different formulations, namely Ex-Ante Expectationalism, Ex-Post Expectationalism, and hybrid theories. These alternative theories recommend different decisions, reasoning modes, and attitudes to risk. But they converge under an interesting (necessary and sufficient) condition.

Purpose Some future-oriented life cycle assessment (LCA) terms, particularly prospective and ex-ante, show notable increase in use in publications over the last decade. However, scholars have pointed out that it is currently unclear exactly what these terms mean and how they are related. This paper aims to explain defining differences between future-oriented LCA terms and provide terminology recommendations. Methods Existing definitions of future-oriented LCA terms were reviewed and analyzed. Workshops were held where defining differences of future-oriented LCA terms were discussed. Results Temporal positionality and technology maturity appear to be two critical aspects of future-oriented LCA. Prospective and ex-ante LCA are similar, with the possible difference that ex-ante LCA always involves an increase in technology maturity in the future. Considering the notable similarities, it seems reasonable to converge terms to mitigate field fragmentation and avoid terminology confusion. Conclusions To denote LCA studies with a future temporal positionality, we recommend using the term prospective LCA, defined as “LCA that models the product system at a future point in time relative to the time at which the study is conducted”. Furthermore, since technology maturity is clearly a critical aspect for prospective LCA, we recommend prospective LCA studies to clearly define the maturity of the technologies modeled in the production system.