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Farmers may grow crops for local consumption despite more profitable export options. DrumNet, a Kenyan NGO that helps small farmers adopt and market export crops, conducted a randomized trial to evaluate its impact. DrumNet services increased production of export crops and lowered marketing costs, leading to a 32% income gain for new adopters. The services collapsed one year later when the exporter stopped buying from DrumNet because farmers could not meet new EU production requirements. Farmers sold to other middlemen and defaulted on their loans from DrumNet. Such experiences may explain why farmers are less likely to adopt export crops.

Purpose: This study focuses on forecasting the price of the most important export crops of vegetables and fruits in Egypt from 2016 to 2030. Design/methodology/approach: The study applied generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. Findings: The results show that ARIMA (1,1,1), ARIMA (2.1,2), ARIMA (1,1,0), ARIMA (1,1,2), ARIMA (0,1,0) and ARIMA (1,1,1) are the most appropriate fitted models to evaluate the volatility of price of green beans, tomatoes, onions, oranges, grapes and strawberries, respectively. The results also revealed the presence of ARCH effect only in the case of Potatoes, hence it is suggested that the GARCH approach be used instead. The GARCH (1,1) is found to be a better model in forecasting price of potatoes. Originality/value: The study of food price volatility in developing countries is essential, since a significant share of household budgets is spent on food in these economies, so forecasting agricultural prices is a substantial requirement for drawing up many economic plans in the fields of agricultural production, consumption, marketing and trade.

This paper presents a simple partial equilibrium framework for considering the economic implications of administered protection in Tanzania, against the background of the country's parallel exchange market and the establishment of the own-funds and open general license (OGL) facilities for authorizing imports. It also presents estimates of the range of possible adjustment in the real exchange rate and trade flows following from a unification of the highly-fragmented import licensing system, coupled with sufficient liberalization of the OGL facility to eliminate own-funded imports and the incentive to export smuggling.

Trade liberalization can create economic opportunities for poor people. But are these opportunities available to men and women equally? Do the gender disparities in access to education, health, credit, and other resources limit the gains from trade and the potential benefits to poor women? This volume introduces the gender dimension into empirical analyses of the links between trade and poverty, which can improve policy making. The collection of chapters in this book is close to an ideal macro-micro evaluation technique that explicitly assesses the importance of gender in determining the poverty effects of trade shocks. Part I, relying on ex ante simulation approaches, focuses on the macroeconomic links between trade and gender, where labor market structure and its functioning play a key role. Part II concentrates on micro models of households and attempts to identify the ex post effects of trade shocks on household income levels and consumption choices. It also addresses questions about possible changes in inequality within households due to improved economic opportunities for women. 'Gender Aspects of the Trade and Poverty Nexus' will be invaluable to policy makers, development practitioners and researchers, journalists, and students.

The papers in this volume examine the links between gender, time use, and poverty in Sub-Saharan Africa. They contribute to a broader definition of poverty to include “time poverty,” and to a broader definition of work to include household work. The papers present a conceptual framework linking both market and household work, review some of the available literature and surveys on time use in Africa, and use tools and approaches drawn from analysis of consumption-based poverty to develop the concept of a time poverty line and to examine linkages between time poverty, consumption poverty, and other dimensions of development in Africa such as education and child labor.

Fresh food markets have been a fixture of the social and economic landscape of urban and rural PNG since colonial times. They were often the first points of engagement with the market economy, especially for women, who as small-scale producers, sold surplus produce from their food gardens located on communally-owned land. Although local food markets have remained an important livelihood for women, the later adoption and expansion of perennial export cash crops like coffee and cocoa overshadowed food production for local markets as men dominated export crop production on land alienated from communal ownership for decades or permanently. New forms of social relations of production and more exclusive forms of land tenure emerged to accommodate export crop production that were very different from those governing the production and marketing of fresh food. Market values and a trend towards individualisation of production with less capacity to mobilise labour through reciprocal labour exchange networks have characterised export crop production. With the income benefits captured largely by men, women began redirecting their labour to fresh food production where they were able to exercise more control of production and income while still mobilising labour through indigenous labour exchange arrangements. Attempts by men to appropriate the income of women and sons’ labour in export cropping were greater during flush periods when income levels were high, and they were less likely to attempt to appropriate this income in low crop periods when incomes were lower. However, with the recent emergence of female entrepreneurers earning relatively large sums of money in large-scale, profit-driven vegetable production, the moral frameworks governing food production are coming to resemble those governing export crops, and making labour more difficult to mobilise. Despite women being key players in these changes, we argue there is an emerging risk that men will attempt to assert control over this income or move into vegetable production themselves and possibly marginalise women in the process.

This book provides an overview of the World Bank's Eco2 cities: ecological cities as economic cities initiative. The objective of the Eco2 cities initiative is to help cities in developing countries achieve a greater degree of ecological and economic sustainability. The book is divided into three parts. Part one describes the Eco2 cities initiative framework. It describes the approach, beginning with the background and rationale. Key challenges are described, and lessons are drawn from cities that have managed to turn these challenges into opportunities. A set of four key principles is introduced. These principles are the foundation upon which the initiative is built. They are: (1) a city-based approach enabling local governments to lead a development process that takes into account their specific circumstances, including their local ecology; (2) an expanded platform for collaborative design and decision making that accomplishes sustained synergy by coordinating and aligning the actions of key stakeholders; (3) a one-system approach that enables cities to realize the benefits of integration by planning, designing, and managing the whole urban system; and (4) an investment framework that values sustainability and resiliency by incorporating and accounting for life-cycle analysis, the value of all capital assets, and a broader scope for risk assessment in decision making. Part two presents a city-based decision support system that introduces core methods and tools to help cities as they work toward applying some of the core elements and stepping stones. Part two looks into methods for collaborative design and decision making and methods to create an effective long-term framework able to help align policies and the actions of stakeholders. Part three consists of the Field Reference Guide. The guide contains background literature designed to support cities in developing more in-depth insight and fluency with the issues at two levels. It provides a city-by-city and sector-by-sector lens on urban infrastructure. The next section comprises a series of sector notes, each of which explores sector-specific issues in urban development.

Tropical forest frontier areas support the well‐being of local populations in myriad ways. Not only do they provide the material basis for people's livelihoods, they also sustain socio‐cultural foundations through relational values. They host some of the most biodiverse ecosystems and largest carbon stocks on the planet, and are thus a focus of global conservation efforts. They are also a prime location for the production of many global agricultural commodities. These dynamics—often intertwined—may trap local populations between powerful interests, with the potential to affect their well‐being. We conducted 100 structured interviews in four biodiversity‐rich landscapes of north‐eastern Madagascar to investigate how multi‐dimensional human well‐being is affected by the recent establishment of protected areas and surge in cash crop prices. We asked households about their satisfaction—and changes in satisfaction—with locally relevant well‐being components, mapping their answers through Nussbaum's Central Capabilities approach. We also investigated the cultural significance of key natural resources beyond the material benefits they provide. All issues were explored along four variables: site, main source of rice, gender and household land use portfolio. Our findings are as follows: first, human capabilities are interconnected and mutually interdependent, with relational values linking many of them. Second, subjective accounts of well‐being are influenced by cognitive biases, such as treadmill effects, adaptive preferences and recency bias. Third, while households perceived a positive influence of protected areas, those most reliant on forest land and products held a more negative view of conservation interventions. And fourth, while households more engaged in commercial agriculture may be benefitting economically from the recent increase in cash crop prices, these very dynamics might be leading to trade‐offs between capabilities. This is most notably so for the Bodily Health capability (e.g. greater spending on housing) and Affiliation and Bodily Integrity (i.e. worsening social relations and security). These insights highlight the importance of addressing the multiple dimensions of well‐being when assessing the impacts of conservation and economic dynamics in forest frontier populations. Particular attention should be paid to the relational values ascribed to the natural resources the communities rely on. Read the free Plain Language Summary for this article on the Journal blog. Résumé Les zones forestières frontalières tropicales contribuent au bien‐être des populations locales de multiples façons. Non seulement elles fournissent la base matérielle des moyens de subsistance des populations, mais elles soutiennent également les fondements socioculturels par des valeurs relationnelles. Elles abritent certains des écosystèmes les plus riches en biodiversité et les plus grands stocks de carbone de la planète, et sont donc au cœur des efforts de conservation mondiaux. Elles constituent également un lieu privilégié pour la production de nombreux produits agricoles de base. Ces dynamiques ‐ souvent entrelacées ‐ peuvent piéger les populations locales entre des intérêts puissants, avec le risque d'affecter leur bien‐être. Nous avons mené 100 entretiens structurés dans quatre paysages riches en biodiversité du nord‐est de Madagascar afin d'étudier comment le bien‐être humain multidimensionnel est affecté par la récente création des aires protégées et la flambée des prix des cultures de rente. Nous avons interrogé les ménages sur leur satisfaction ‐ et l'évolution de leur satisfaction ‐ par rapport à des composantes du bien‐être pertinentes au niveau local, en analysant leurs réponses selon l'approche des Capabilités Centrales de Nussbaum. Nous avons également étudié l'importance culturelle des principales ressources naturelles au‐delà des avantages matériels qu'elles procurent. Toutes les questions ont été explorées selon quatre variables: le site, la principale source de riz, le sexe et le portefeuille d'utilisation des terres du ménage. Nos découvertes sont les suivantes: premièrement, les capabilités humaines sont interconnectées et mutuellement interdépendantes, et des valeurs relationnelles relient nombre d'entre elles. Deuxièmement, les comptes subjectifs du bien‐être sont influencés par des biais cognitifs, tels que l'adaptation hédonique, les préférences adaptatives et l'effet de récence. Troisièmement, si les ménages perçoivent une influence positive des aires protégées, ceux qui dépendent le plus des terres et produits de la forêt ont une vision plus négative des interventions de conservation. Et quatrièmement, alors que les ménages les plus engagés dans l'agriculture commerciale peuvent bénéficier économiquement de la récente augmentation des prix des cultures de rente, cette dynamique même pourrait conduire à des compromis entre les capacités. C'est notamment le cas pour la capabilité Santé Corporelle (par exemple, dépenses plus importantes pour le logement) et Affiliation et Intégrité Corporelle (par exemple, dégradation des relations sociales et de la sécurité). Ces observations soulignent l'importance de prendre en compte les multiples dimensions du bien‐être lors de l'évaluation des impacts de la conservation et des dynamiques économiques sur les populations forestières frontalières. Une attention particulière doit être accordée aux valeurs relationnelles attribuées aux ressources naturelles dont dépendent les communautés. Read the free Plain Language Summary for this article on the Journal blog.