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Using data for 130 developing countries over a 24 year period from 1996 to 2019, this study investigates the role of manufacturing development in sustainable growth and how the contribution of the manufacturing sector to growth is affected by exports and the underlying export-oriented policies. By employing a vintage difference GMM estimation developed by Arellano and Bond (1991), we find that the manufacturing sector positively contributes to economic growth in developing countries, whereas exports (and thus, their related growth policies) lead to deindustrialization and are thus harmful to growth. In addition, we find that this export-led deindustrialization and the resulting negative growth effect might differ depending on a country’s stage of development measured in terms of the per capita income level. In particular, the growth of countries with lower income levels is more severely negatively impacted than in the case of the richer countries, which is consistent with the findings in the literature. Finally, our main results are robust under two alternative regression checks in which we take into account the potential endogeneity problem and additionally control for the share of imports in GDP in the model.

Various factors determine and affect economic growth, one of which is exports. Trade theory also states that exports increase the growth of the domestic economy in various ways. For this reason, the effect of exports on economic growth is a long-term area of research. In addition to the studies examining the effect of foreign trade on economic growth in the literature, some studies investigate the effects of economic growth on export capacity. These studies suggest that the export-based economic growth hypothesis is valid when the causality relationship between exports and growth is from exports to growth, and the growth-led export hypothesis is valid when it is from growth to exports. To this end, the primary purpose of this study is to investigate the validity of the new economic model for Turkey in two different periods. In this context, this study comparatively focuses on the 1999:Q1-2013:Q4 and 2014:Q1-2021:Q4 periods to test the validity of the export-led growth hypothesis and the growth-led export hypothesis. According to the analysis results for the 1999:Q1-2013:Q4 periods, only the growth-led export hypothesis is valid, and a 1% increase in the economic growth rate in this period increases exports by 0.42%. Considering the 2014:Q1-2021:Q4 period, the hypotheses of 'Economic growth is not the cause of exports and exports are not the cause of economic growth' are rejected, and according to these test results, it was determined that both the export-led growth hypothesis and the growth-led export hypothesis are valid. In the results of this period, a 1% increase in economic growth rate increases exports by 0.38%, and a 1% increase in exports increases economic growth by 1.36%.

In this article, the authors thoroughly examine the learning-by-exporting (LBE) hypothesis for Colombian manufacturing plants during 1981–91 and find significant evidence in its favor. The results are robust to the use of different samples of the data set, different econometric methods, and different modeling approaches. The authors find that export experience acquired by plants in years before the previous year has an important effect on plant productivity and that the effect of export experience on productivity is nonsignificant for exporters that stopped exporting in the previous year. There is also evidence of diminishing returns to export experience in that LBE effects are quantitatively lower for the experienced exporters in the sample.

The paper analyses the labour force composition of two adjacent counties in north-west Romania: Maramureș and Sălaj. Regionally, employers stress the lack of available labour force and resort to commuter networks from nearby rural areas and immigrant labour. Why labour shortage? It is argued that Romania’s FDI-reliant export-led growth model factors in. Namely, the growth model’s reliance on low-cost labour that reduces employment incentives to a minimum (often minimum wage) and employment in repetitive labour-intensive activities make the prospect less attractive. If technological upgrading – requiring skilled employees – is absent, regional labour availability tends to be an issue. Alternative subsistence methods are favoured: seasonal transnational migration, household agricultural subsistence and remittances from relatives. Tying livelihood to families and households, these methods pool resources to replace (even if in part) wage labour under global market-dependency conditions.

We introduce a novel approach to operationalizing growth models. Drawing on the most recent release of OECD Input–Output Tables, we compute the import-adjusted growth contributions of consumption, investment, government expenditures, and exports for sixty-six countries in the years 1995–2007 and 2009–2018, covering not only advanced Western economies but also Central and Eastern European, South-East Asian, and Latin American countries. We find that most are export-led or domestic demand-led and other forms of growth are rare. Our results differ from other classifications in that they reveal important geographical variation as well as temporal change. In a subsequent step, we illustrate the utility of the methodology by investigating the link between real exchange rate devaluation and export-led growth, a contentious issue in the existing literature. For pre-crisis advanced Western economies, we find an association between the two variables, which is statistically significant only when our new indicator is used.

This study examines the impact of exports, imports, and trade openness on Namibia's economic growth using the ARDL cointegration method. The results reveal a significant negative relationship between imports and economic growth, while exports and trade openness show positive and significant relationships with economic growth. Moreover, short-term economic growth is driven by exports, imports, and trade openness. The findings suggest that trade liberalisation and export-led growth are crucial for Namibia's economic development. Overall, this study supports the mercantilist theory, which emphasises the importance of participating in global markets by increasing exports and trade.

The purpose of this article is to examine the export–output nexus in Japan by taking into account the time variation in the causal link with bootstrap Granger non-causality test and rolling estimation. The data used cover the seasonally adjusted real export and real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the 1957:1–2009:1 period. Standard Granger causality tests indicate no causality between export and real GDP series. On the contrary, full sample-modified Granger causality tests based on bootstrap, which are applicable irrespective of integration–cointegration properties of the data, indicate a bi-directional causal link between exports and real GDP. Accordingly, export growth should be an important factor behind Japan’s high-economic growth in the last three decades. Using parameter stability tests, we show that these results are not uniform for different sample periods and results vary due to structural changes. Using bootstrap rolling window estimation, we find that there is a positive bi-directional predictive power from the mid 1970s to the late-1980s between the series, while from the late 1990s to 2009 there is a positive predictive power only from export growth to output growth.

This study aimed to examine the relationship between ASEAN-4’s disaggregates exports (i.e., manufactured and primary exports) and economic growth by utilising the time series data over the period from 1982 to 2017. The Johansen-Juselius multivariate procedure was performed to determine the existence of the long-run relationship between variables, while the Granger causality test within VECM was applied to analyse the long-run and short-run causal directions. Prior to that, the unit root test was conducted to examine the series properties of the variables. The empirical results from the Johansen and Juselius Multivariate Cointegration test revealed that there were long-run equilibrium relationships among variables, while the Granger causality test based on VECM found that the ELG hypothesis for manufactured exports was valid for Indonesia in the long-run and short-run, while in the Philippines this hypothesis was only valid for the short-run. On the other hand, in the case of Malaysia and Thailand, both ELG and GLE hypotheses were valid in both long-run and short-run. For each ASEAN-4 nation the results also revealed that physical capital indirectly caused economic growth via the manufactured exports. Nevertheless, in the case of Malaysia and Thailand, it seemed that the reserve effect was likely to happen whereby the economic growth caused the growth of manufactured exports through the increase of the national production. The growth of the manufactured exports due to the reverse effect in turn caused the demand for imports to increase, particularly the imports of intermediate products. As far as the primary exports were concerned, the ELG hypothesis was valid for Thailand in both long-run and short-run, while for Malaysia and Indonesia, this hypothesis was valid respectively in the long-run and short-run. For Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia, it appeared that in the short run, human capital indirectly stimulated economic growth via primary exports.

The export-led growth hypothesis has been examined for South Korea, which has long been regarded as a typical export-oriented economy. In particular, the expansion of exports in South Korea is reinforced by the imports of raw materials and intermediate goods from overseas, and the exports of manufactured final goods increase at a greater rate than the import growth. In this case, net exports rise. One striking result we have found is that for the earlier sample period of 1972-1996 prior to the 1997/98 Asian crisis, changes in net exports had a significant impact on economic growth; but the growth effect of net exports has been mitigated and insignificant for the recent years of 1999-2017. The two contrasting results we have found reflect the structural changes experienced by the South Korean economy after the 1997/98 economic crisis.

This study investigates the effects of Angola’s agricultural, manufacturing, and mineral exports on the country’s economic growth using data from 1980 to 2017. An Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model is employed to estimate the effect of sectoral exports on economic growth. The estimation results show that while exports from all three sectors (manufacturing, mineral, and non-mineral) have driven Angola’s economic growth in the long-run; only non-manufacturing (agricultural and mineral) exports have led its growth in the short-run. Moreover, growth in non-export GDP was driven by mineral exports in the long-run and agricultural exports in the short-run. Considering the statistically significant and positive impact of mineral exports on the Angolan GDP as well as on its non-export GDP, this study points to a lack of evidence supporting the Dutch disease phenomenon in Angola.