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By incorporating both the fire sales contagion mechanism and the bankruptcy contagion mechanism into a bank network model, this paper examines how risks are generated under dynamic shocks. In particular, this paper constructs systemic risk indicators suitable for analyzing multiple rounds of contagion under different shocks (time dimension) and from institutions and assets (spatial dimension). Indicators that measure the indirect relevance between institutions and between assets are also innovatively built. It is found that due to deleveraging or bankruptcy among a large number of banks, the systemic risk exhibits an upward trend marked by intermittent jumps under varying intensities of shocks. Risks are generated mainly through the fire sales contagion mechanism of deleveraging under small shocks, and through the bankruptcy contagion mechanism under large shocks. In terms of influencing factors, a stronger indirect relevance, a lower leverage skewness and a higher leverage level in the banking system lead to higher risks. In particular, the influence of leverage skewness on systemic risk is stronger than that of leverage level.

Grain supply is the lifeblood of a country, and the stability of the supply chain is a crucial prerequisite for ensuring national grain security. This paper draws on the definition of resilience in physics and economics. It takes supply chain fracture resilience, impact resilience, and synergy resilience as the secondary indicators. It constructs a comprehensive evaluation indicator system of the grain supply chain resilience, measures the resilience indicator of China’s grain supply chain from 1996 to 2021, and analyzes the role of supply, cost, exchange rate, and other external shocks in influencing the resilience of China’s grain supply chain on this basis. The study found that the overall level of China’s total grain supply chain resilience has been growing year by year and can be divided into three stages: low-level stabilization stage, continuous growth stage, and high-level stabilization stage. Grain supply chain fracture resilience has been growing steadily, grain supply chain impact resilience fluctuation is more obvious, and grain supply chain synergy resilience has been changing more gently. In the inquiry of the impact of external shocks on the resilience of China’s grain supply chain, it was found that world grain exports and the RMB exchange rate have a significant positive impact on China’s grain supply chain resilience level, while the international oil price has a significant negative impact. Based on this, the paper puts forward suggestions for ensuring stable production and supply in the grain market, improving the structure of foreign trade in grain, and actively coping with international commodity price shocks.

International tourism of today is considered one of the main levers of job creation, generating income and foreign currency and foreign investment. Over the past few years, international tourism has been growing steadily, but at the same time this same growth is threatened by challenges in the form of various external shocks affecting the volatility of tourism. Volatility is described, according to many authors, as an unpredictable measure of the intensity of variations. These variations are associated with unpredictable crisis situations or events commonly referred to as ‘new shocks’ (e.g. terrorism, epidemics, natural disasters, exchange rate volatility, oil price, political (in)stability, wars, and various forms of criminal activities). Such global events have a profound impact on a wide range of political, legal and social dimensions. Tourism is extremely vulnerable to various external and internal shock e. The appearance of exogenous events in destinations changes the characteristics of tourism at the destination level, affecting the tourist demand, but also on the economic situation of the country.

This research investigates the spillover effect of the US interest rate and oil prices on renewable energy utilization in Turkey. By employing a novel bootstrap autoregressive distributed lag approach on annual data from 1985 to 2016, the empirical findings and discussions represent the first contribution to the energy economics literature. The findings of this research confirm that the US interest rate has a significant spillover effect on the use of renewable energy in Turkey through the channels of income and local interest rate. Due to limited foreign exchange reserves, high foreign debt, low international reserves, and devaluation of the local currency, the Turkish economy is highly intertwined with the US economy through international investment and trade. All these factors reinforce the spillover influence of the US interest rate on energy consumption in Turkey. Moreover, this study affirms that the price of oil has a negative impact on renewable energy use through the real income channel. In order for Turkey to realize its investments in renewable energy resources more reliably and sustainably, the study suggests that policymakers should revise the current economic growth model by making it more resilient to external shocks such as the US interest rate, exchange rate, and oil prices.

This paper estimates factors affecting demand for Fund financing by Low-Income Countries (LICs) in response to policy and exogenous shocks. Various economic variables including reserve coverage, current account balance to GDP, real GDP growth, macroeconomic stability, and terms of trade shocks are found to be significant determinants of Fund financing. Moreover, global conditions, including changes in real oil and non-oil commodity prices and world trade, are also significant. Therefore, the demand for Fund financing by LICs is likely to be cyclical in response to common shocks with its intensity depending on the severity and persistence of adverse shocks.

The aim of the article is to define the role of artificial intelligence technologies for the implementation of prudential supervision and the features of its implementation in the context of external shocks. To achieve the aim of the article, the following tasks are solved: to determine the essence of artificial intelligence on the basis of systematization of scientific approaches to its interpretation; consider the principle of operation of this digital technology; specify the stages of the evolution of artificial intelligence; determine the potential impact of the use of this technology on the prudential supervision of credit institutions; to outline the main features of the implementation of such supervision in the context of external shocks. The article considers the essence and features of the digital economy, which covers all spheres of public life and significantly affects the activities of credit institutions. Digitalization of the economy involves the active use of digital technologies in production, consumption, exchange and management, which stimulates the adaptation of traditional sectors of the economy, including the financial sector. The digital economy places new demands on credit institutions and regulators, which must adapt to the fast-paced conditions of digital transformation, while maintaining the stability of the financial system and protecting the interests of consumers. The digitalization of credit institutions provides them with significant benefits, including increased efficiency of operational processes, improved customer service, the ability to analyze big data, and make accurate decisions. The development of innovative products and services becomes an important component, allowing to remain competitive in the market. There is also a need for regulators to adapt approaches to prudential supervision by integrating digital tools such as artificial intelligence, machine learning, and big data analysis to improve efficiency of monitoring of financial activities. The article focuses on risk-oriented approaches to prudential supervision, which are based on data analysis and risk forecasting, as well as the need for international cooperation to harmonize regulatory standards. The growth of cyber threats is causing increased requirements for cybersecurity and data protection. The results of the study highlight the importance of the proactive role of regulators in maintaining the stability of the financial system in the face of external shocks.

PurposeSurvivability capital is a unique resource resulting from the “familiness” constituting an inherent feature of family firms. Familiness represents the ability of family members to reinforce the financial and non-financial resources of businesses facing threats to their economic existence. This work proposes and examines various dimensions of the survivability capital construct, verifying whether family firms expecting deterioration of their economic situation or problems with survival due to the COVID-19 crisis can mobilise sufficient capital to survive.Design/methodology/approachThis article provides empirical evidence based on a cross-sectional online survey of 167 Polish family firms, conducted at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic. The method (scale) of survivability capital measurement was elaborated and validated using principal component analysis (PCA) and confirmatory factor analyses (CFA). Next, the mobilisation of the different dimensions of survivability capital was examined using PLS-SEM modelling.FindingsThe survivability capital of family firms is composed of two dimensions: internal (based on directly involved family members) and external (based on not directly involved family members). Family firms facing crisis-induced deterioration of the economic situation engage its internal component. Subsequently, family firms forecasting decreasing probability of survival during a crisis try to engage both the internal and the external components of survivability capital. Such behaviour is in line with the resource-based view as well as with the sustainable family business theory.Originality/valueTo the best of the authors' knowledge, this is one of the first studies to examine analytically the survivability capital construct. While previous studies mentioned the existence of survivability capital, this study attempts to introduce its various dimensions and test the mobilisation of survivability capital during the COVID-19 crisis.

The unsatisfactory dynamics and high level of volatility of economic processes actualize the problem of ensuring the stable development of regional systems. The economic situation in the Federation largely depends on the state of the manufacturing industry, which is the main branch of Russian regions specialization. The aim of the work is to study the sustainability of the regional economy in the face of shocks in 2014-2015. The research methodology includes an analysis of domestic and foreign literature on the sustainability of the regional economy. A comprehensive analysis of scientific literature has shown that in an unstable economy, the importance of studying the issues of economic resilience increases, i.e. its ability to withstand external shocks, as well as quickly recover in the post-shock period. To identify the impact of external shocks on the dynamics of manufacturing industries, two periods are identified: 2012-2014 and 2016-2018. The analysis was carried out using official data from the Federal State Statistics Service of the Russian Federation. The paper studies the stability of manufacturing industries in the regions of the Central Federal District and the Northwestern Federal District to the impact of shocks. Based on the level of resilience, the regions are divided into three groups. In the regions of the first group, the industrial production index reached the pre-crisis level, the second - exceeded the pre-crisis level, and the third - the dynamics of manufacturing industries worsened. The analysis did not reveal a significant influence of the factors of specialization and innovative activity on the level of shock resistance. Regions with the same specialization showed significantly different levels of shock resistance. In the context of a low level of innovation and investment activity, it is difficult to draw a conclusion about the significant impact of innovation on the adaptation of regions to the conditions of the post-shock economy. At the same time, as the analysis has shown, most regions with higher growth rates of manufacturing industries in the post-crisis period have a positive dynamics of innovation activity. Manufacturing industries in most regions have adapted to the new economic reality. At the same time, the low level of investment and innovation activity does not allow us to conclude that adaptation was accompanied by an increase in the technological level of the industry.