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Background Although immediate recurrence of atrial fibrillation (IRAF) after cardioversion has been proposed as a surrogate for atrial substrate vulnerability, its broad definition may insufficiently discriminate patients at highest risk of postablation recurrence. We introduced the concept of ultra‐early recurrence of AF (URAF)—defined as recurrence within 10 s after direct current cardioversion (CV) under deep sedation—as a novel marker of advanced remodeling in persistent atrial fibrillation (AF). Objective To evaluate whether URAF independently predicts late recurrence following pulmonary vein isolation (PVI) in patients with persistent or long‐standing persistent AF. Methods We retrospectively analyzed 104 patients undergoing first‐time PVI for persistent AF. Among 93 patients who underwent external CV, URAF, and IRAF were defined as AF recurrence within 10 and 90 s, respectively. Recurrence of atrial arrhythmias was assessed at 12 m postablation. Results URAF was observed in 10/104 patients (9.6%) and was associated with higher 12‐m recurrence compared with URAF‐negative patients (50% vs. 18%, p = 0.02), whereas IRAF (20/104, 19.2%) showed no significant difference (30% vs. 19%, p = 0.28). On multivariable logistic regression, URAF (Odds Ratio (OR): 4.8; 95% Confidence Interval (CI): 1.16–19.98; p = 0.029) and long‐standing AF (OR: 5.5; 95% CI: 1.70–17.78; p = 0.004) emerged as independent predictors of recurrence. Kaplan–Meier analysis showed worse recurrence‐free survival for URAF (log‐rank p = 0.02; HR 4.5, 95% CI 1.18–17.41). Conclusion URAF may represent a promising intra‐procedural marker associated with post‐ablation recurrence in persistent AF, but prospective validation in larger cohorts is required. Ultra‐early recurrence of AF (URAF) within 10 s after cardioversion predicted late recurrence after PVI in persistent AF. (OR: 4.8; 95% CI: 1.16–19.98; p = 0.029). URAF may represent a promising intraprocedural marker associated with postablation recurrence in persistent AF.

Full-endoscopic lumbar discectomy (FED) is one of the least invasive procedures for lumbar disc herniation. Patients who receive FED for lumbar disc herniation may develop recurrent herniation at a frequency similar to conventional procedures. Reoperation and risk factors of recurrent lumbar disc herniation were investigated among 909 patients who received FED using an interlaminar approach (FED-IL). Sixty-five of the 909 patients received reoperation for recurrent herniation. Disc height, smoking, diabetes mellitus (DM), subligamentous extrusion (SE) type, and Modic change were identified as the risk factors for recurrence. Other indicators such as LL, Cobb angle, disc migration, age, sex, and body mass index (BMI) did not reach significance. Among 65 patients, reoperation was performed within 14 days following FED-IL (very early) in 7 patients, from 15 days to 3 months (early) in 14 patients, from 3 months to 1 year (midterm) in 17 patients, and after more than 1 year (late) in 27 patients. The very early group included a greater number of males, and the mean age was significantly lower in comparison to other groups. All patients in the very early group received FED-IL for reoperation. Reoperation within 2 weeks allows FED-IL to be performed without adhesion. Fusion surgery was performed on three cases in the early and midterm groups and on 10 cases in the late group, which increased over time as degenerative change and adhesion progressed. The procedure selected to treat recurrent herniation mostly depends on the surgeon’s preference. Revision FED-IL is the first choice for recurrent herniation in terms of minimizing surgical burden, whereas fusion surgery offers the advantage that discectomy can be performed through unscarred tissues. FED-IL is recommended for recurrent herniation within 2 weeks before adhesion progresses.

Inflammatory biomarkers and clinical pathological factors have been reported to predict survival of patients with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). The goal of this study was to identify risk factors for early recurrence in patients with pIIIA-N2 NSCLC who had undergone radial resection. A retrospective analysis was conducted on 238 patients with pIIIA-N2 NSCLC who underwent surgical treatment at the First Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University between December 2006 and August 2018. The early recurrence (ER) group included patients who recurred within one year of curative resection, while the non-early recurrence (NER) group included patients who did not recurrence or recurrence beyond one year. The univariate and multivariate Cox proportional risk analyses were used to identify prognostic factors associated with early recurrence, while the chi-square test was used for categorical data. Overall survival and recurrence-free survival were assessed by Kaplan-Meier estimates. A total of 69 patients experienced an early recurrence, while the remaining 169 patients did not relapse within one year. ER patients had a much worse prognosis than NER patients, with median survival times of 20.6 and 83.1 months, respectively. Multivariate analysis showed that smoking status, tumor size, metastatic lymph node ratio (LNR) and platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR) were independent risk factor of early recurrence. Patients with early recurrence were more likely to develop bone metastases. Smoking history, large tumour size, and elevated LNR and PLR values in pIIIA-N2 NSCLC patients after complete resection may have a significant risk of early recurrence. Based on these independent risk indicators, this prediction model may successfully predict early recurrence and advise individual treatment.

Background To define early versus late recurrence based on post-recurrence survival (PRS) among patients undergoing curative resection for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Methods Patients who underwent curative-intent resection for HCC between 2000 and 2017 were identified from an international multi-institutional database. The optimal cut-off time point to discriminate early versus late recurrence was determined relative to PRS. Results Among 1004 patients, 443 (44.1%) patients experienced recurrence with a median recurrence-free survival time of 12 months. A cut-off time point of 8 months was defined as the optimal threshold based on sensitivity analyses relative to PRS for early ( n  = 165, 37.2%) versus late relapse ( n  = 278, 62.8%) ( p  = 0.008). Early recurrence was associated with worse PRS (median PRS, 27.0 vs. 43.0 months, p  = 0.019), as well as overall survival (OS) (median OS, 32.0 versus 74.0 months, p  < 0.001) versus late recurrence. In addition, patients who recurred early were more likely to recur at extra- ± intrahepatic (35.5% vs. 19.8%, p  = 0.003) sites and were less likely to have the recurrence treated with curative intent (33.8% vs. 45.7%, p  = 0.08). Patients undergoing curative re-treatment of late recurrence had a comparable OS with patients who had no recurrence (median OS, 139.0 vs. 140.0 months); patients with early recurrence had inferior OS after curative re-treatment versus patients with no recurrence (median OS, 69.0 vs. 140.0 months, p  = 0.036), yet still better than patients who received palliative treatment for early recurrence (median OS, 69.0 vs. 21.0 months, p  < 0.001). Conclusions Eight months was identified as the cut-off value to differentiate early versus late recurrence. Curative-intent treatment for recurrent intrahepatic tumors was associated with reasonable long-term outcomes.

BackgroundThe definition and predictors of early recurrence (ER) for gastric cancer (GC) patients after radical gastrectomy are unclear.MethodsA minimum-p value approach was used to evaluate the optimal cutoff value of recurrence-free survival to determine ER and late recurrence (LR). Receiver operating characteristic curves were generated for inflammatory indices. Potential risk factors for ER were assessed with a Cox regression model. A decision curve analysis was performed to evaluate the clinical utility.ResultsA total of 401 patients recruited in a clinical trial (NCT02327481) from January 2015 to April 2016 were included in this study. The optimal length of recurrence-free survival to distinguish between ER (n = 44) and LR (n = 52) was 12 months. Factors associated with ER included a preoperative C-reactive protein–albumin ratio (CAR) ≥ 0.131, stage III and postoperative adjuvant chemotherapy (PAC) > 3 cycles. The risk model consisting of both the CAR and TNM stage had a higher predictive ability and better clinical utility than TNM stage alone. Further stratification analysis of the stage III patients found that for the patients with a CAR < 0.131, both PAC with 1–3 cycles (p = 0.029) and > 3 cycles (p < 0.001) could reduce the risk of ER. However, for patients with a CAR ≥ 0.131, a benefit was observed only if they received PAC > 3 cycles (54.2% vs 16.0%, p = 0.004), rather than 1–3 cycles (58.3% vs 54.2%, p = 0.824).ConclusionsA recurrence-free interval of 12 months was found to be the optimal threshold for differentiating between ER and LR. Preoperative CAR was a promising predictor of ER and PAC response. PAC with 1–3 cycles may not exert a protective effect against ER for stage III GC patients with CAR ≥ 0.131.

Background Early recurrence after liver resection of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) has a great effect on the survival of patients. The aims of this study were to identify risk factors for early recurrence and to clarify whether early recurrence is related to patient survival rate. Methods We identified a total of 1010 patients with HCC recurrence after hepatic resection between 2009 and 2014 in Samsung Medical Center and Seoul National University Hospital. Inclusion criteria were preoperative solitary tumor Child-Pugh class A and curative hepatectomy. Early recurrence was defined as HCC recurrence < 1 year after surgery. Results A total of 628 patients were included in this study: 302 with early recurrence and 326 with late recurrence. Multivariate analysis showed that HCC grade 3 or 4, tumor size > 3 cm, and microvascular invasion were closely associated with early recurrence after liver resection for solitary HCC. When HCC recurred, the early recurrence group had large tumor size, increased tumor numbers and AFP levels, and high incidence of diffuse intrahepatic recurrence compared with the late recurrence group. The overall survival curve for the early recurrence group was lower than that for the late recurrence group ( P  < 0.001). Multivariate analysis demonstrated early recurrence was closely associated with patient survival. Conclusions Patients with early recurrence had different characteristics compared to patients with late recurrence after hepatic resection in solitary HCC. Early detection of recurrence is necessary through active postoperative surveillance in hepatectomy patients with poor prognostic factors.

Background Early recurrence in intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm (IPMN)-derived pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) is poorly defined. Predictors are lacking and needed for patient counseling, risk stratification, and postoperative management. This study aimed to define and predict early recurrence for patients in resected IPMN-derived PDAC and guide management. Methods A lowest p value for survival after recurrence (SAR) was used to define early recurrence in resected IPMN-derived PDAC from five international centers. Overall survival (OS) and SAR were compared using log-rank tests. A multivariable logistic regression identified odds ratios (ORs) with 95 % confidence intervals (CIs) for early recurrence. Rounded ORs were used to stratify patients into low-, intermediate-, and high-risk groups using upper and lower quartile score distributions. Adjuvant chemotherapy was assessed by Cox regression and log-rank tests for OS in risk groups. Results Recurrence developed in 160 (42 %) of 381 patients. Early recurrence was defined at 10.5 months and observed in 61 patients (38 % of recurrences). The median SAR for the patients with early recurrence was 8.3 months (95 % CI, 3.1–16.1 months) compared with 12.9 months (95 % CI, 5.2–27.5 months) for the patients with late recurrence. The independent predictors of early recurrence were CA19-9 (OR, 3.80; 95 % CI, 1.54–9.41) and N2 disease (OR, 7.29; 95 % CI, 3.22–16.49). The early recurrence rates in the low-, intermediate-, and high-risk groups were respectively 1 %, 14 %, and 32 %. Adjuvant chemotherapy was associated with improved OS only for the high-risk patients (hazard ratio, 0.50; 95 % CI, 0.32–0.79). Conclusion In IPMN-derived PDAC, the optimal cutoff for early recurrence is 10.5 months. Both CA19-9 and N stage predict early recurrence. Adjuvant chemotherapy is associated with survival benefit only for high-risk patients.

Abstarct Background Early recurrence after esophagectomy is often used as a surrogate for aggressive tumor biology and treatment failure. However, there is no standardized definition of early recurrence, and predictors for early recurrence are unknown. Therefore, we aimed to define an evidence-based cutoff to discriminate early and late recurrence and assess the influence of neoadjuvant treatment modalities for patients with esophageal or gastroesophageal-junction adenocarcinoma (EAC). Patients and Methods This dual-center retrospective cohort study included patients who underwent esophagectomy for stage II–III EAC after neoadjuvant treatment with chemotherapy using 5-fluorouracil, leucovorin, oxaliplatin, and docetaxel (FLOT) or radiochemotherapy according to the Chemoradiotherapy for Esophageal Cancer followed by Surgery Study (CROSS) protocol from 2012 to 2022. The optimal cutoff for early versus late recurrence was calculated by using the most significant difference in survival after recurrence (SAR). Multivariable logistic regression was used to identify variables associated with early recurrence. Results Of 334 included patients, 160 (47.9%) were diagnosed with recurrence. Most patients had systemic (60.5%) or multiple sites of recurrence (21.1%), whereas local-only recurrence (9.2%) and carcinomatosis (9.2%) were rare. The optimal interval between surgery and recurrence for distinguishing early and late recurrence was 18 months (median SAR: 9.1 versus 17.8 months, p = 0.039) with only 24% of recurrences diagnosed after the calculated cutoff. Advanced pathologic tumor infiltration (ypT3–4, p = 0.006), nodal positivity ( p = 0.013), poor treatment response (>10% residual tumor, p = 0.015), and no adjuvant treatment ( p = 0.048) predicted early recurrence. Conclusion Early recurrence can be defined as recurrent disease within 18 months. Hallmarks for early recurrence are poor response to neoadjuvant therapy with persisting advanced disease. In those patients, adjuvant therapy and closer follow-up should be considered.

BackgroundResectable pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (R-PDAC) often recurs early after radical resection, which is associated with poor prognosis. Predicting early recurrence preoperatively is useful for determining the optimal treatment.Patients and methodsOne hundred and seventy-eight patients diagnosed with R-PDAC on computed tomography (CT) imaging and undergoing radical resection at Hirosaki University Hospital from 2005 to 2019 were retrospectively analyzed. Patients with recurrence within 6 months after resection formed the early recurrence (ER) group, while other patients constituted the non-early recurrence (non-ER) group. Early recurrence prediction score (ERP score) was developed using preoperative parameters.ResultsER was observed in 45 patients (25.3%). The ER group had significantly higher preoperative CA19-9 (p = 0.03), serum SPan-1 (p = 0.006), and CT tumor diameter (p = 0.01) compared with the non-ER group. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis identified cutoff values for CA19-9 (133 U/mL), SPan-1 (78.2 U/mL), and preoperative tumor diameter (23 mm). When the parameter exceeded the cutoff level, 1 point was given, and the total score of the three factors was defined as the ERP score. The group with an ERP score of 3 had postoperative recurrence-free survival (RFS) of 5.5 months (95% CI 3.02–7.98). Multivariate analysis for ER-related perioperative and surgical factors identified ERP score of 3 [odds ratio (OR) 4.63 (95% CI 1.82–11.78), p = 0.0013] and R1 resection [OR 3.20 (95% CI 1.01–10.17), p = 0.049] as independent predictors of ER.ConclusionsFor R-PDAC, ER could be predicted by the scoring system using preoperative serum CA19-9 and SPan-1 levels and CT tumor diameter, which may have great significance in identifying patients with poor prognoses and avoiding unnecessary surgery.

To identify factors associated with post-recurrence survival (PRS), we examined our institutional recurrence patterns following definitive resection for rectal cancer. We reviewed all patients with rectal cancer diagnosed at three hospitals in the east of Iran from 2011 to 2020. The optimal cut-off value was determined by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis to determine early recurrence. The effect of recurrence time was evaluated on PRS. 326 eligible patients with a mean ± SD age of 56 ± 12.8 years were included in this study. In a median (IQR: Inter-quartile range) follow-up time of 76 (62.2) months, 106 (32.5%) patients experienced at least any recurrence (locoregional or distant metastasis) following primary resection. The median (IQR) time from initial surgery to recurrence was 29.5 (31.2) months. Based on ROC analysis, early recurrence was specified at ≤ 29 months. However, for the patients who experienced only locoregional recurrence, 33 months was the cut-off to define early recurrence. Recurrence time and recurrence management were both significant variables on PRS. Moreover, TNM staging was significantly associated with early recurrence ( P  = 0.003). In this research, recurrence time, recurrence management and TNM staging were found to be correlated with PRS.