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Le Mouël, J.-L.; Lopes, F., and Courtillot, V., 2021. Sea-level change at the Brest (France) tide gauge and the Markowitz component of Earth's rotation. Journal of Coastal Research, 37(4), 683–690. Coconut Creek (Florida), ISSN 0749-0208. This paper centers on singular spectrum analysis (SSA) of variations in sea level in Brest (France) and in Earth's axis of rotation. Brest tide gauge data (recording the Brest sea level [BSL]) are available from 1807 onward. The main features of the BSL curve are common to most stations in the Northern Hemisphere; hence, the Brest curve has recorded a gross Earth datum. Pole positions (coordinate m2), another gross Earth datum, are from the International Earth Rotation and Reference System Service (1845–2019). The first SSA components of both series, i.e. the trends, are similar, with a major acceleration event near 1900 and sea level lagging pole motion by ∼5 to 10 years. SSA components with periods of 1, 5.4, and ∼11 years are common to the two series. An important feature is a 0.5-year component that is present in sea level but absent from pole motion. The remarkable similarity of the two trends and their phase lag suggests a causal relationship opposite the one that is generally accepted.

Earth’s spin axis slowly moves relative to the crust over time. A 120-year-long record of this polar motion from astronomical and more modern geodetic measurements displays interannual and multidecadal fluctuations of 20 to 40 milliarcseconds superimposed on a secular trend of about 3 milliarcseconds per year. Earth’s polar motion is thought to be driven by various surface and interior processes, but how these processes operate and interact to produce the observed signal remains enigmatic. Here we show that predictions made by an ensemble of physics-informed neural networks trained on measurements to capture geophysical processes can explain the main features of the observed polar motion. We find that glacial isostatic adjustment and mantle convection primarily account for the secular trend. Mass redistribution on the Earth’s surface—for example, ice melting and global changes in water storage—yields a relatively weak trend but explains about 90% of the interannual and multidecadal variations. We also find that core processes contribute to both the secular trend and fluctuations in polar motion, either due to variations in torque at the core–mantle boundary or dynamical feedback of the core in response to surface mass changes. Our findings provide constraints on core–mantle interactions for which observations are rare and global ice mass balance over the past century and suggest feedback operating between climate-related surface processes and core dynamics. Core processes, dynamically linked to mantle and climate-related surface processes, contribute to both the long-term trend and shorter-term fluctuations observed in Earth’s polar motion, according to predictions from physics-informed neural networks.

Realistic appraisal of paleoclimatic information obtained from a particular location requires accurate knowledge of its paleolatitude defined relative to the Earth's spin-axis. This is crucial to, among others, correctly assess the amount of solar energy received at a location at the moment of sediment deposition. The paleolatitude of an arbitrary location can in principle be reconstructed from tectonic plate reconstructions that (1) restore the relative motions between plates based on (marine) magnetic anomalies, and (2) reconstruct all plates relative to the spin axis using a paleomagnetic reference frame based on a global apparent polar wander path. Whereas many studies do employ high-quality relative plate reconstructions, the necessity of using a paleomagnetic reference frame for climate studies rather than a mantle reference frame appears under-appreciated. In this paper, we briefly summarize the theory of plate tectonic reconstructions and their reference frames tailored towards applications of paleoclimate reconstruction, and show that using a mantle reference frame, which defines plate positions relative to the mantle, instead of a paleomagnetic reference frame may introduce errors in paleolatitude of more than 15° (>1500 km). This is because mantle reference frames cannot constrain, or are specifically corrected for the effects of true polar wander. We used the latest, state-of-the-art plate reconstructions to build a global plate circuit, and developed an online, user-friendly paleolatitude calculator for the last 200 million years by placing this plate circuit in three widely used global apparent polar wander paths. As a novelty, this calculator adds error bars to paleolatitude estimates that can be incorporated in climate modeling. The calculator is available at www.paleolatitude.org. We illustrate the use of the paleolatitude calculator by showing how an apparent wide spread in Eocene sea surface temperatures of southern high latitudes may be in part explained by a much wider paleolatitudinal distribution of sites than previously assumed.

Observation of the variations in the Earth’s rotation at time scales ranging from subdiurnal to multidecadal allows us to learn about its deep interior structure. We review all three types of motion of the Earth’s rotation axis: polar motion (PM), length of day variations (ΔLOD) and nutations, with particular attention to how the combination of geodetic, magnetic and gravity observations provides insight into the dynamics of the liquid core, including its interactions with the mantle. Models of the Earth’s PM are able to explain most of the observed signal with the exception of the so-called Markowitz wobble. In addition, whereas the quasi-six year oscillations (SYO) observed in both ΔLOD and PM can be explained as the result of Atmosphere, Oceans and Hydrosphere Forcing (AOH) for PM, this is not true for ΔLOD where the subtraction of the AOH only makes the signal more visible. This points to a missing—possibly common—interpretation related to deep interior dynamics, the latter being also the most likely explanation of other oscillations in ΔLOD on interannual timescales. Deep Earth’s structure and dynamics also have an impact on the nutations reflected in the values of the Basic Earth Parameters (BEP). We give a brief review of recent works aiming to independently evaluate the BEP and their implications for the study of deep interior dynamics.

Over the past few million years, the Earth descended from the relatively warm and stable climate of the Pliocene into the increasingly dramatic ice age cycles of the Pleistocene. The influences of orbital forcing and atmospheric CO2 on land-based ice sheets have long been considered as the key drivers of the ice ages, but less attention has been paid to their direct influences on the circulation of the deep ocean. Here we provide a broad view on the influences of CO2, orbital forcing and ice sheet size according to a comprehensive Earth system model, by integrating the model to equilibrium under 40 different combinations of the three external forcings. We find that the volume contribution of Antarctic (AABW) vs. North Atlantic (NADW) waters to the deep ocean varies widely among the simulations, and can be predicted from the difference between the surface densities at AABW and NADW deep water formation sites. Minima of both the AABW-NADW density difference and the AABW volume occur near interglacial CO2 (270–400 ppm). At low CO2, abundant formation and northward export of sea ice in the Southern Ocean contributes to very salty and dense Antarctic waters that dominate the global deep ocean. Furthermore, when the Earth is cold, low obliquity (i.e. a reduced tilt of Earth’s rotational axis) enhances the Antarctic water volume by expanding sea ice further. At high CO2, AABW dominance is favoured due to relatively warm subpolar North Atlantic waters, with more dependence on precession. Meanwhile, a large Laurentide ice sheet steers atmospheric circulation as to strengthen the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, but cools the Southern Ocean remotely, enhancing Antarctic sea ice export and leading to very salty and expanded AABW. Together, these results suggest that a ‘sweet spot’ of low CO2, low obliquity and relatively small ice sheets would have poised the AMOC for interruption, promoting Dansgaard–Oeschger-type abrupt change. The deep ocean temperature and salinity simulated under the most representative ‘glacial’ state agree very well with reconstructions from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), which lends confidence in the ability of the model to estimate large-scale changes in water-mass geometry. The model also simulates a circulation-driven increase of preformed radiocarbon reservoir age, which could explain most of the reconstructed LGM-preindustrial ocean radiocarbon change. However, the radiocarbon content of the simulated glacial ocean is still higher than reconstructed for the LGM, and the model does not reproduce reconstructed LGM deep ocean oxygen depletions. These ventilation-related disagreements probably reflect unresolved physical aspects of ventilation and ecosystem processes, but also raise the possibility that the LGM ocean circulation was not in equilibrium. Finally, the simulations display an increased sensitivity of both surface air temperature and AABW volume to orbital forcing under low CO2. We suggest that this enhanced orbital sensitivity contributed to the development of the ice age cycles by amplifying the responses of climate and the carbon cycle to orbital forcing, following a gradual downward trend of CO2.

Probing the Earth’s center is critical for understanding planetary formation and evolution. However, geophysical inferences have been challenging due to the lack of seismological probes sensitive to the Earth’s center. Here, by stacking waveforms recorded by a growing number of global seismic stations, we observe up-to-fivefold reverberating waves from selected earthquakes along the Earth’s diameter. Differential travel times of these exotic arrival pairs, hitherto unreported in seismological literature, complement and improve currently available information. The inferred transversely isotropic inner-core model contains a ~650-km thick innermost ball with P-wave speeds ~4% slower at ~50° from the Earth’s rotation axis. In contrast, the inner core’s outer shell displays much weaker anisotropy with the slowest direction in the equatorial plane. Our findings strengthen the evidence for an anisotropically-distinctive innermost inner core and its transition to a weakly anisotropic outer shell, which could be a fossilized record of a significant global event from the past. This study presents hitherto unreported multiply-reverberating seismic body waves through the Earth’s center. Their travel times confirm a distinct internal shell within the inner core, existing possibly due to a past change in the inner core growth.

Neoproterozoic snowball Earth events lasted for multiple million years, experiencing many orbital cycles. Here we investigate whether the deglaciation of these events would be triggered more easily at certain orbital configurations than others, by using an atmosphere‐land model that considers meltpond formation on land ice. Results show that the threshold concentration of atmospheric CO2 (pCO2) required for deglaciation can vary from 6 to 10 × 104 ppmv under different orbital forcings. The threshold pCO2 decreases with the equatorial maximum monthly insolation (EMMI), which is affected most by the eccentricity and secondarily by obliquity. Therefore, we conclude that the snowball Earth deglaciation likely occurred when the eccentricity was high and obliquity was low. Compared to previous estimate that used present‐day orbital configuration which has a minimal eccentricity, the duration of snowball Earth events would likely be much shorter when the influence of orbital variations are considered. Plain Language Summary This study explores how different orbital configurations might have influenced the termination of the Neoproterozoic snowball Earth events, during which Earth was covered by ice globally. Using a coupled atmosphere‐land model that is capable of simulating the formation of melt ponds on ice, we find that the atmospheric CO2 level needed to initiate the deglaciation varies with the Earth's orbital configurations. Specifically, the required CO2 levels are lower when the maximum monthly solar insolation received at the equator is higher, which is achieved when the Earth's orbit is more eccentric and the tilt of Earth's rotational axis is small. The results suggest that the duration of snowball Earth events could have been shorter when the influence of orbital forcing is considered. Key Points Influence of orbital forcing on the snowball Earth deglaciation is tested using an atmosphere‐land model that considers meltpond on ice The equatorial maximum monthly insolation is the most important factor that triggers the deglaciation of a snowball Earth The needed CO2 to deglaciate a snowball Earth at the optimal orbital configuration is 40% lower than that under modern orbit

Progressive crystallization of Earth’s inner core drives convection in the outer core and magnetic field generation. Determining the rate and pattern of inner-core growth is thus crucial to understanding the evolution of the geodynamo. The growth history of the inner core is probably recorded in the distribution and strength of its seismic anisotropy, which arises from deformation texturing constrained by conditions at the inner-core solid–fluid boundary. Here we show from analysis of seismic body wave travel times that the strength of seismic anisotropy increases with depth within the inner core, and the strongest anisotropy is offset from Earth’s rotation axis. Then, using geodynamic growth models and mineral physics calculations, we simulate the development of inner-core anisotropy in a self-consistent manner. From this we find that an inner core composed of hexagonally close-packed iron–nickel alloy, deformed by a combination of preferential equatorial growth and slow translation, can match the seismic observations without requiring hemispheres with sharp boundaries. Our model of inner-core growth history is compatible with external constraints from outer-core dynamics, and supports arguments for a relatively young inner core (~0.5–1.5 Ga) and a viscosity >10 18  Pa s. The inner core underwent preferential equatorial growth and translation after nucleation ~0.5–1.5 billion years ago, according to an analysis of its seismic anisotropy and self-consistent geodynamic simulations.

Profile evaluation by detecting tangential angles of the profile is competent for large objects because it inherently requires no reference, which is difficult to define with sufficient accuracy as the object becomes larger. We considered using a gyro for detecting the angles instead of an inclinometer or an autocollimator, which are conventionally used as angle detectors. A gyro can detect angles without angular reference; therefore, profiles can be evaluated without the limitation of a reference. However, angles detected by a gyro generally have considerable fluctuations to ensure accuracy in the μrad range, which is the same level as a highly precise inclinometer. In this work, we adopted a periodic reversal measurement using a rotating mechanism to eliminate fluctuations. Analysis and experimental results show that the angles of the gyro’s rotating axis against the earth’s rotating axis can be derived from the angular signals of two gyros rotating in counter directions, and that this method is effective for reducing the influences of fluctuations.

Polar motion is the movement of the Earth's rotational axis relative to its crust, reflecting the influence of the material exchange and mass redistribution of each layer of the Earth on the Earth's rotation axis. To better analyze the temporally varying characteristics of polar motion, multi-channel singular spectrum analysis (MSSA) was used to analyze the EOP 14 C04 series released by the International Earth Rotation and Reference System Service (IERS) from 1962 to 2020, and the amplitude of the Chandler wobbles were found to fluctuate between 20 and 200 mas and decrease significantly over the last 20 years. The amplitude of annual oscillation fluctuated between 60 and 120 mas, and the long-term trend was 3.72 mas/year, moving towards N56.79 °W. To improve prediction of polar motion, the MSSA method combining linear model and autoregressive moving average model was used to predict polar motion with ahead 1 year, repeatedly. Comparing to predictions of IERS Bulletin A, the results show that the proposed method can effectively predict polar motion, and the improvement rates of polar motion prediction for 365 days into the future were approximately 50% on average.