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There is evidence that warming leads to greater evapotranspiration and surface drying, thus contributing to increasing intensity and duration of drought and implying that mitigation would reduce water stresses. However, understanding the overall impact of climate change mitigation on water resources requires accounting for the second part of the equation, i.e., the impact of mitigation-induced changes in water demands from human activities. By using integrated, high-resolution models of human and natural system processes to understand potential synergies and/or constraints within the climate–energy–water nexus, we show that in the United States, over the course of the 21st century and under one set of consistent socioeconomics, the reductions in water stress from slower rates of climate change resulting from emission mitigation are overwhelmed by the increased water stress from the emissions mitigation itself. The finding that the human dimension outpaces the benefits from mitigating climate change is contradictory to the general perception that climate change mitigation improves water conditions. This research shows the potential for unintended and negative consequences of climate change mitigation.

Conventional low‐resolution (LR) climate models, including the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SMv1), have well‐known biases in simulating the frequency, intensity, and timing of precipitation. Approaches to next‐generation E3SM, whether the high‐resolution (HR) or multiscale modeling framework (MMF) configuration, improve the simulation of the intensity and frequency of precipitation, but regional and seasonal deficiencies still exist. Here we apply a methodology to assess the contribution of tropical cyclones (TCs), extratropical cyclones (ETCs), and mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) to simulated precipitation in E3SMv1‐HR and E3SMv1‐MMF relative to E3SMv1‐LR. Across the United States, E3SMv1‐MMF provides the best simulation in terms of precipitation accumulation, frequency and intensity from MCSs and TCs compared to E3SMv1‐LR and E3SMv1‐HR. All E3SMv1 configurations overestimate precipitation amounts from and the frequency of ETCs over CONUS, with conventional E3SMv1‐LR providing the best simulation compared to observations despite limitations in precipitation intensity within these events. Plain Language Summary Precipitation has direct and major impacts on society, both locally and globally, and thus understanding how precipitation may change in the future is important. Climate models, or mathematical representations of the Earth system, are the tools‐of‐choice, albeit imperfect for projecting future changes in precipitation. Precipitation occurs in many different environments and is produced by a variety of weather phenomena in the United States, including tropical cyclones (TCs), extratropical cyclones (ETCs), and mesoscale convective systems (MCSs). This work acts to quantify the characteristics of precipitation in configurations of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model by these storm‐types to better inform future development of the climate model and produce more accurate projections of future precipitation. Key Points Multiscale modeling framework E3SMv1 captures precipitation from mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) better than low‐ and high‐resolution High‐resolution and multiscale modeling framework E3SMv1 improve tropical cyclone (TC) precipitation All configurations capture realistic extratropical cyclone precipitation in contrast to TC and MCS, and conventional low‐resolution E3SMv1 does best

Heatwaves are strongly associated with temperature distributions, but the mechanisms by which distributions are influenced by climate change remains unclear. Comparing simulations from a high‐spatial resolution Community Earth System Model (CESM‐HR) with those from low‐resolution models, we identify substantial improvements by CESM‐HR in reproducing observed Northern Hemisphere summer temperature skewness, as well as the frequency, intensity, persistence, and total heatwave days. Temperature skewness is strongly linked to land‐atmosphere interactions and atmospheric circulation. Under global warming projections, some regions exhibit enhanced temperature skewness, along with more frequent and persistent heatwaves of greater intensity. We find that in energy‐limited regimes, such as India, negative skewness in latent heat flux facilitates large positive skewness in sensible heat flux, which modulates near‐surface air temperatures. Skewness differences of latent and sensible heat fluxes are amplified under global warming, increasing the temperature skewness. We find that this contrasting flux mechanism is active in several heatwave‐prone regions. Plain Language Summary Heatwaves have occurred frequently in the recent decades, exerting substantial impacts on human health. While it is well known that mean warming can induce more frequent heatwaves, how higher order characteristics of the temperature distribution like skewness influence extreme hot events has received less focus. Using a high‐resolution global climate model to simulate the response to future anthropogenic climate forcing, we find that regions with increasing positive temperature skewness tend to experience more frequent, persistent and intensified heatwaves. We also find that surface soil moisture and energy partitioning can significantly alter the shape of near surface air temperature distribution, and hence heatwaves. Key Points Striking improvements in simulating temperature skewness and heatwave days are achieved by a high‐resolution Earth system model Regions with enhanced temperature skewness in a warming climate tend to suffer more frequent, persistent and intense heatwaves Over energy‐limited regions, temperature distribution is affected by negatively skewed latent and positively skewed sensible heat fluxes

The overestimation of surface ozone concentration in low‐resolution global atmospheric chemistry and climate models has been a long‐standing issue. We first update the ozone dry deposition scheme in both high‐ (0.25°) and low‐resolution (1°) Community Earth System Model (CESM) version 1.3 runs, by adding the effects of leaf area index and correcting the sunlit and shaded fractions of stomatal resistances. With this update, 5‐year‐long summer simulations (2015–2019) using the low‐resolution CESM still exhibit substantial ozone overestimation (by 6.0–16.2 ppbv) over the U.S., Europe, eastern China, and ozone pollution hotspots. The ozone dry deposition scheme is further improved by adjusting the leaf cuticle conductance, reducing the mean ozone bias by 19%, and increasing the model resolution further reduces the ozone overestimation by 43%. We elucidate the mechanism by which model grid spacing influences simulated ozone, revealing distinctive pathways in urban versus rural areas. In rural areas, grid spacing mainly affects daytime ozone levels, where additional NOx emissions from nearby urban areas result in an ozone boost and overestimation in low‐resolution simulations. In contrast, over urban areas, daytime ozone overestimation follows a similar mechanism due to the influence of volatile organic compounds from surrounding rural areas. However, nighttime ozone overestimation is closely linked to weakened NO titration owing to the redistribution of urban NOx to rural areas. Additionally, stratosphere‐troposphere exchange may also contribute to reducing ozone bias in high‐resolution simulations, warranting further investigation. This optimized high‐resolution CESM may enhance understanding of ozone formation mechanisms, sources, and changes in a warming climate. Plain Language Summary Traditionally, low‐resolution Earth system models have persistently overestimated surface ozone concentrations. Building on our previous optimization of the high‐resolution Community Earth System Model version 1.3 for the Sunway heterogeneous‐architecture high‐performance computing system, we have enhanced both the efficiency and accuracy of high‐resolution Earth system simulations with interactive atmospheric chemistry. This advancement enables a systematic evaluation of the benefits of high‐resolution (∼25 km atm) modeling compared to its low‐resolution (∼100 km atm) counterpart. Our findings show that while improving ozone sinks, such as ozone dry deposition velocity, can partially reduce bias in low‐resolution simulations, increasing model resolution significantly mitigates ozone overestimation. Furthermore, we identify a key mechanism driving simulated ozone differences across grid spacings: the misrepresentation of urban and rural emission redistribution in low‐resolution models alters the dominant ozone formation regimes controlled by volatile organic compounds and nitrogen oxides, leading to ozone biases. This newly optimized high‐resolution CESM is expected to improve our understanding of ozone formation mechanisms, emission sources, and future changes in a warming climate. Key Points A high‐resolution Earth system model with interactive atmospheric chemistry is optimized on the Sunway high‐performance computing system The updated ozone dry deposition velocity along with high‐resolution simulations greatly reduces ozone overestimates across many regions We identify the mechanism that modulates differences in simulated ozone across different grid spacings in Earth system models

The Arctic coastal margin receives a disproportionately large fraction of the global river discharge. The bio-geochemistry of the river water as it empties into the marine environment reflects inputs and processes that occur as the water travels from its headwaters. Climate-induced changes to Arctic vegetation and permafrost melt may impact river chemistry. Understanding the impact of river nutrients on coastal marine production, and how this may change in the future, are important for resource managers and community members who monitor and rely on coastal food resources. Using the Energy Exascale Earth System Model we explore the impact of timing and river nutrient concentrations on primary production in each coastal Arctic region and then assess how this influences secondary production and particle fluxes supporting the benthic food web. Our results indicate that while the concentration of Arctic river nitrogen can have a significant impact on annual average nitrogen and primary production in the coastal Arctic, with production increases of up to 20% in the river influenced interior Seas, the timing of the river nutrient inputs into the marine environment appears less important. Bloom timing and partitioning between small and large phytoplankton were minimally impacted by both river nutrient concentration and timing, suggesting that in general, coastal Arctic ecosystem dynamics will continue to be primarily driven by light availability, rather than nutrients. Under a doubling river nutrient scenario, the percentage increase in the POC flux to the benthos on river influenced Arctic coastal shelves was 2-4 times the percentage increase in primary production, suggesting changes to the river nutrient concentration has the potential to modify the Arctic food web structure and dynamics. Generally, the nutrient-induced changes to primary production were smaller than changes previously simulated in response to ice reduction and temperature increase. However, in the Laptev Sea, the production increase resulting from a doubling of river nutrients exceeded the production increase simulated with an atmospheric warming scenario. Dissolved organic carbon is presently poorly represented in the model so its impact on production is hard to simulate. Applying established relationships between modeled DOC, total DOC, and light absorption we illustrate that DOC could play a very important role in modulating production. Our findings highlight the importance of developing more realistic river nutrient and discharge forcing for Earth System Models such that their impact on the critical Arctic coastal domain can be more adequately resolved.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report lists sea‐level rise as one of the major future climate challenges. Based on pre‐industrial and historical‐and‐future climate simulations with the Community Earth System Model, we analyze the projected sea‐level rise in the Northwest Atlantic Ocean with two sets of simulations at different horizontal resolutions. Compared with observations, the low resolution (LR) model simulated Gulf Stream does not separate from the shore but flows northward along the entire coast, causing large biases in regional dynamic sea level (DSL). The high resolution (HR) model improves the Gulf Stream representation and reduces biases in regional DSL. Under the RCP8.5 future climate scenario, LR projects a DSL trend of 1.5–2 mm/yr along the northeast continental shelf (north of 40° N), which is 2–3 times the trend projected by HR. Along the southeast shelf (south of 35° N), HR projects a DSL trend of 0.5–1 mm/yr while the DSL trend in LR is statistically insignificant. The different spatial patterns of DSL changes are attributable to the different Gulf Stream reductions in response to a weakening Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. Due to its poor representation of the Gulf Stream, LR projects larger (smaller) current decreases along the north (south) east continental slope compared to HR. This leads to larger (smaller) trends of DSL rise along the north (south) east shelf in LR than in HR. The results of this study suggest that the better resolved ocean circulations in HR can have significant impacts on regional DSL simulations and projections. Plain Language Summary Projecting future sea‐level rise has great socioeconomic value. Based on long‐term global high‐resolution Community Earth System Model simulations, we analyze future sea‐level rise in the Northwest Atlantic Ocean. Two identical sets of simulations were conducted with different horizontal resolutions. Comparisons between the two sets of simulations show different sea‐level rise projections along the US east continental shelf between the low‐resolution (LR) and high‐resolution (HR) models. At the northeast shelf, HR projects a sea‐level rise of 0.8 mm/yr, less than half of the trend (1.7 mm/yr) projected by LR. At the southeast shelf, HR projects a sea‐level rise of 0.6 mm/yr, while the trend in LR is statistically insignificant at only 0.15 mm/yr. We attribute the different sea‐level rise projections to the different ocean circulations simulated in LR and HR. Under global warming, LR projects a decrease in Gulf Stream flow along the entire east continental slope, while the decrease in Gulf Stream strength is confined to the southeast continental slope in HR. This study provides an explanation for the discrepancy in regional sea‐level rise projections between low‐ and high‐resolution climate models and thus improves our understanding of projected future sea‐level rise. Key Points The high resolution (HR) Community Earth System Model reduces biases in dynamic sea level (DSL) and circulation on US east continental shelf Compared to the low resolution model, the HR projects enhanced (reduced) trends of DSL rise along the US south (north) east continental shelf Different DSL rise patterns are related to different Gulf Stream reductions under a weakening Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation

Ambient ozone uptake by plant stomata degrades ecosystem and crop health and alters local-to-global carbon and water cycling. Metrics for ozone plant damage are often based solely on ambient ozone concentrations, overlooking the role of variations in stomatal activity. A better metric is the cumulative stomatal uptake of ozone (CUO), which indicates the amount of ozone entering the leaf over time available to cause physiological damage. Here we apply the NOAA GFDL global earth system model to assess the importance of capturing interannual variations and 21st century changes in surface ozone versus stomatal conductance for regional mean CUO using 20-year time-slice simulations at the 2010s and 2090s for a high-warming climate and emissions scenario. The GFDL model includes chemistry-climate interactions and couples atmospheric and land components through not only carbon, water, and energy exchanges, but also reactive trace gases-in particular, ozone dry deposition simulated by the land influences surface ozone concentrations. Our 20-year time slice simulations hold anthropogenic precursor emissions, well-mixed greenhouse gases, and land use distributions fixed at either 2010 or 2090 values. We find that CUO responds much more strongly to interannual and daily variability in stomatal conductance than in ozone. On the other hand, long-term changes in ozone explain 44%-90% of the annual CUO change in regions with decreases, largely driven by the impact of 21st century anthropogenic NOx emission trends on summer surface ozone. In some regions, increases in stomatal conductance from the 2010s to 2090s counteract the influence of lower ozone on CUO. We also find that summertime stomatal closure under high carbon dioxide levels can offset the impacts of higher springtime leaf area (e.g. earlier leaf out) and associated stomatal conductance on CUO. Our findings underscore the importance of considering plant physiology in assessing ozone vegetation damage, particularly in quantifying year-to-year changes.

Simulations of 21st century climate with Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) using the standard atmosphere (CAM6), denoted CESM2(CAM6), and the latest generation of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM6), denoted CESM2(WACCM6), are presented, and a survey of general results is described. The equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) of CESM2(CAM6) is 5.3°C, and CESM2(WACCM6) is 4.8°C, while the transient climate response (TCR) is 2.1°C in CESM2(CAM6) and 2.0°C in CESM2(WACCM6). Thus, these two CESM2 model versions have higher values of ECS than the previous generation of model, the CESM (CAM5) (hereafter CESM1), that had an ECS of 4.1°C, though the CESM2 versions have lower values of TCR compared to the CESM1 with a somewhat higher value of 2.3°C. All model versions produce credible simulations of the time evolution of historical global surface temperature. The higher ECS values for the CESM2 versions are reflected in higher values of global surface temperature increase by 2,100 in CESM2(CAM6) and CESM2(WACCM6) compared to CESM1 between comparable emission scenarios for the high forcing scenario. Future warming among CESM2 model versions and scenarios diverges around 2050. The larger values of TCR and ECS in CESM2(CAM6) compared to CESM1 are manifested by greater warming in the tropics. Associated with a higher climate sensitivity, for CESM2(CAM6) the first instance of an ice‐free Arctic in September occurs for all scenarios and ensemble members in the 2030–2050 time frame, but about a decade later in CESM2(WACCM6), occurring around 2040–2060. Plain Language Summary The new Earth system model versions CESM2(CAM6) and CESM2(WACCM6) have higher equilibrium climate sensitivity than the previous model version CESM1. While this higher climate sensitivity produces greater warming by the end of the 21st century in CESM2(CAM6) and CESM2(WACCM6) compared to CESM1 for the high forcing scenario, prior to midcentury the warming is comparable among all model versions and scenarios. The higher climate sensitivity in CESM2(CAM6) and CESM2(WACCM6) compared to CESM1 produces greater tropical warming and precipitation increases in those regions. CESM2(CAM6) does not warm as much in the tropics as CESM2(WACCM6), though CESM2(CAM6) shows the first instance of an ice‐free Arctic in September for all scenarios and ensemble members about a decade earlier than in CESM2(WACCM6). Key Points CESM2(CAM6) and CESM2(WACCM6) have higher equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) but about the same transient climate response (TCR) compared to CESM1 Future global warming diverges around 2050, with greater warming by end of century in the higher forcing scenarios and in both versions of CESM2 compared to CESM1 There is more future warming (and greater precipitation increase) in the tropics in the CESM2 versions compared to CESM

Between the land and ocean, diverse coastal ecosystems transform, store, and transport material. Across these interfaces, the dynamic exchange of energy and matter is driven by hydrological and hydrodynamic processes such as river and groundwater discharge, tides, waves, and storms. These dynamics regulate ecosystem functions and Earth’s climate, yet global models lack representation of coastal processes and related feedbacks, impeding their predictions of coastal and global responses to change. Here, we assess existing coastal monitoring networks and regional models, existing challenges in these efforts, and recommend a path towards development of global models that more robustly reflect the coastal interface. Coastal systems are hotspots of ecological, geochemical and economic activity, yet their dynamics are not accurately represented in global models. In this Review, Ward and colleagues assess the current state of coastal science and recommend approaches for including the coastal interface in predictive models.

Using an ensemble of simulations with an intermediate complexity climate model and in a probabilistic framework, we estimate future ranges of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions in order to follow three medium-high mitigation concentration pathways: RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and SCP4.5 to 2.6. Uncertainty is first estimated by allowing modelled equilibrium climate sensitivity, aerosol forcing and intrinsic physical and biogeochemical processes to vary within widely accepted ranges. Results are then constrained by comparison against contemporary measurements. For both constrained and unconstrained projections, our calculated allowable emissions are close to the standard (harmonised) emission scenarios associated with these pathways. For RCP4.5, which is the most moderate scenario considered in terms of required emission abatement, then after year 2100 very low net emissions are needed to maintain prescribed year 2100 CO 2 concentrations. As expected, RCP2.6 and SCP4.5 to 2.6 require more strict emission reductions. The implication of this is that direct sequestration of carbon dioxide is likely to be required for RCP4.5 or higher mitigation scenarios, to offset any minimum emissions for society to function (the 'emissions floor'). Despite large uncertainties in the physical and biogeochemical processes, constraints from model-observational comparisons support a high degree of confidence in predicting the allowable emissions consistent with a particular concentration pathway. In contrast the uncertainty in the resulting temperature range remains large. For many parameter sets, and especially for RCP2.6, the land will turn into a carbon source within the 21st century, but the ocean will remain as a carbon sink. For land carbon storage and our modelling framework, major reductions are seen in northern high latitudes and the Amazon basin even after atmospheric CO 2 is stabilised, while for ocean carbon uptake, the tropical ocean regions will be a source to the atmosphere, although uncertainties on this are large. The parameters which most significantly affect the allowable emissions are aerosols and climate sensitivity, but some carbon-cycle related parameters (e.g. maximum photosynthetic rate and respiration's temperature dependency of vegetation) also have significant effects. Parameter values are constrained by observation, and we found that the CO 2 emission data had a significant effect in constraining climate sensitivity and the magnitude of aerosol radiative forcing.