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The Formation of Econometrics
Duo Qin has produced a scholarly study of a crucial period in the history of econometrics. She analyses the development of the theory and methodology between 1930 and 1960, arguing in particular that the `probability revolution' of the 1940s was incomplete, and resulted in later problems. This is a study of the history and philosophy of econometric.
eBook
Reconciling Keynes and Tinbergen?
In 1944, just five years after the controversy between John Maynard Keynes and Jan Tinbergen, Lawrence R. Klein found himself in a unique position. As a leading expert on Keynesian economics in the United States, Klein was recruited at the Cowles Commission to rebuild Tinbergen’s macro-econometric model of the US economy. This paper explores Klein’s macro-econometric approach as a serious attempt to reconcile Tinbergen’s work with Keynes’s criticisms. For Klein, macro-econometric modeling was not merely a tool for generating insights about the economic world but also a practice that took seriously the inherent limitations of statistical and mathematical methods. Ultimately, it was this complex practice—rather than econometric techniques alone—that enabled macroeconomists to discover, understand, and articulate concrete observations about the economy. En 1944, solamente cinco años después de la Controversia entre John Maynard Keynes y Jan Tinbergen, Lawrence R. Klein se encontró en una posición particular: Klein era uno de los expertos en economía Keynesiana en EEUU que acababa de ser reclutado por la Cowles Comission para volver a hacer el modelo macroeconométrico de EEUU de Tinbergen. En este artículo, presento la aproximación de Klein como un intento serio de reconciliar el trabajo de Tinbergen con las críticas de Keynes. Esta aproximación presenta la modelización macroeconométrica como una manera poderosa de descubrir cosas sobre el mundo económico y como una manera rigurosa de considerar las limitaciones de los métodos estadísticos y matemáticos en economía. Al final, la reconciliación propuesta por Klein no puede entender la econometría solamente como una herramienta, sino más bien como una práctica de modelización macroeconométrica, que le permite a la macroeconometrista descubrir, entender y hacer recomendaciones concretas sobre el mundo.
Journal Article
Economics and history : surveys in cliometrics
\"Economics and History presents six state-of-the-art, comprehensive surveys from some of the leading scholars in cliometrics. The contributions consider a broad range of topics from this highly topical area, covering the following issues: time series econometrics and their applications in cliometrics, international migration, income maintenance programs in the USA in the first half of the 20th Century, social savings, health and stature, and human development - a long run view. This collection will serve as a unique resource for advanced undergraduate and postgraduate students on quantitative and econometrics courses, as well as academics and professional economists more generally\"--Provided by publisher.
Book
The growth delusion : wealth, poverty, and the well-being of nations
\"A provocative critique of the pieties and fallacies of our obsession with economic growth. We live in a society in which a priesthood of economists, wielding impenetrable mathematical formulas, set the framework for public debate. Ultimately, it is the perceived health of the economy which determines how much we can spend on our schools, highways, and defense; economists decide how much unemployment is acceptable and whether it is right to print money or bail out profligate banks. The backlash we are currently witnessing suggests that people are turning against the experts and their faulty understanding of our lives. Despite decades of steady economic growth, many citizens feel more pessimistic than ever, and are voting for candidates who voice undisguised contempt for the technocratic elite. For too long, economics has relied on a language which fails to resonate with people's lived experience, and we are now living with the consequences. In this powerful, incisive book, David Pilling reveals the hidden biases of economic orthodoxy and explores the alternatives to GDP, from measures of wealth, equality, and sustainability to measures of subjective wellbeing. Authoritative, provocative, and eye-opening, The Growth Delusion offers witty and unexpected insights into how our society can respond to the needs of real people instead of pursuing growth at any cost\"-- Provided by publisher.
Book
Entangled Economists: Ragnar Frisch and Jan Tinbergen
It is 50 years since the first Nobel Prize in economics was awarded to Jan Tinbergen and Ragnar Frisch. This article analyzes the collaborations between these pioneers of econometrics which spanned four decades and various subfields in economics, based on records of their correspondence. It is demonstrated that, while Frisch was largely responsible for theoretical breakthroughs, Tinbergen was responsible for making them public and popularizing them. This is especially relevant for understanding the development of econometric models in the 1950s, decision models of the 1950s, and subsequent work on utility measurement. This division of labor is analyzed in relation to the goals they pursued in their research and their respective perfectionistic (Frisch) and pragmatic (Tinbergen) approaches to economic science. Both men shared a sense of deep social responsibility, but differences in their personalities and approaches to science generated important differences in scientific recognition and policy influence. Although they are both widely remembered for helping to turn economics into a quantitative empirical science, this article shows that they were motivated by separate personal and political goals which shaped their scientific approaches.
Journal Article
Recovering Tinbergen
From the long viewpoint of history of economics, the two most important contributions that Jan Tinbergen made to economics are surely the development of the first macro-econometric model and a general theory of economic policy-making. This paper explores these two innovations to recover why they deserve such recognition, analyses their technical and conceptual depths, and shows how they relate to the economic history of the period and his personal history. In the process, it becomes clear that they are not separate innovations, but, as Tinbergen recognised, involved the same logic; and as we can recognise, were driven by the same ambition to make economics usable in the world.
Journal Article
Econometric Developments in Agricultural and Resource Economics: The First 100 Years
This article reviews the major contributions of agricultural and resource economists in the area of econometrics over the past 100 years. Early on, a number of agricultural economists were in on the ground floor in terms of developing new econometric methods. Over time as the economics profession became more empirically oriented, agricultural and resource economists increasingly assumed the role of “early adopters” of new econometric methods. Even so, agricultural and resource economists continue to make useful modifications to econometric techniques in order to adapt the methods to the unique nature of the problems and applications that we study.
Journal Article