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\"Forecasting--the art and science of predicting future outcomes--has become a crucial skill in business and economic analysis. This volume introduces the reader to the tools, methods, and techniques of forecasting, specifically as they apply to financial and investing decisions.

A rising share of employees now regularly engage in working from home (WFH), but there are concerns this can lead to ‘‘shirking from home.’’ We report the results of a WFH experiment at Ctrip, a 16,000-employee, NASDAQ-listed Chinese travel agency. Call center employees who volunteered to WFH were randomly assigned either to work from home or in the office for nine months. Home working led to a 13% performance increase, of which 9% was from working more minutes per shift (fewer breaks and sick days) and 4% from more calls per minute (attributed to a quieter and more convenient working environment). Home workers also reported improved work satisfaction, and their attrition rate halved, but their promotion rate conditional on performance fell. Due to the success of the experiment, Ctrip rolled out the option to WFH to the whole firm and allowed the experimental employees to reselect between the home and office. Interestingly, over half of them switched, which led to the gains from WFH almost doubling to 22%. This highlights the benefits of learning and selection effects when adopting modern management practices like WFH.

During the era of COVID-19 (COronaVIrus Disease of 2019), telework has been adopted extensively in developing countries for the first time. This study analyzes data of 355 teleworkers in Hanoi (Vietnam) during April 2020, the period of social distancing, to examine various factors associated with (1) complete home-based telework (HBT), (2) the perception of HBT, and (3) the attitude toward the combination between HBT and conventional work at workplace post-COVID-19. It finds that the company’s closure policy and the frequency of working from a distance before the social distancing period were the primary determinants of exclusively teleworking. Regarding the perception of HBT, while the fear of COVID-19 was a strong positive factor, difficulties in focusing on work and accessing data were negative factors. Regarding the attitude toward the future development of HBT, attitudinal factors, commute distance, gender, children in household, and the perception of HBT in the social distancing period were the main predictors. The presence of more than one child negatively affected the perception of telework but positively affected the attitude toward establishing the hybrid work mechanism. The findings suggested that HBT has the potential to alleviate traffic congestion in developing countries and it can be promoted by emphasizing its environment-related benefits. The sample used in this research was collected in the initial stage of constrained mobility and it was not well representative; therefore, this study serves as a proof of concept for ongoing wider analyses on HBT post-COVID-19 or in the subsequent lockdown periods.

We use a series of field experiments in rural Burundi to examine the impact of exposure to conflict on social, risk, and time preferences. We find that conflict affects behavior: individuals exposed to violence display more altruistic behavior towards their neighbors, are more risk-seeking, and have higher discount rates. Large adverse shocks can thus alter savings and investments decisions, and potentially have long-run consequences—even if the shocks themselves are temporary.

\"In The Pillars of Finance, author and finance expert Guy Fraser-Sampson challenges the fundamental conventions of modern finance. He asserts that, at its core, finance is not the highly scientific, modern discipline that most would claim, but has in fact stood still for the past 50 years. Central to the book are the main pillars of the financial markets - risk, return, and value - pillars of financial practice that are not properly understood by the industry, as began to become clear in 2007. Instead, the industry is blinded by a quantitative maze, obsessed with mathematical solutions, stochastic models, and normal distributions, which, although they have a place, should not provide the bedrock of the global marketplace. The author also looks at the industry's overreliance on past performance. Historical data is the foundation of financial forecasting and derivatives pricing, and while much can be gleaned from the past, it cannot and should not be seen as a mirror of the future. Finally, the author provides solutions to these issues, which include the need for the industry to undergo a transformation similar to that which occurred in the Modernist movement in other fields. He argues for a return to more qualitative and informed approaches to finance, bringing back intuition, skill, responsibility, and competency. Drawing from many fields of knowledge, including philosophy, psychology, and history, he encourages readers to question everything, rather than tamely accepting conventional wisdom. The Pillars of Finance is a lively and provocative read, challenging some of the core beliefs of modern finance. It will spark fierce debate and prove a popular read for anyone interested in modern finance. \"-- Provided by publisher.

This study examines the change in activities and associated travel during the beginning of COVID-19 pandemic in Indonesia. This study is particularly interested in analyzing the role of attitudes, descriptive norms, protective behaviors toward COVID-19, travel frequency before the pandemic, and spatial and individual characteristics on activity-travel behavior changes in relation to information and communication technology (ICT) use. Data were obtained from 1062 respondents using a web-based questionnaire survey. Structural equation modeling was used to examine the complex relationships among variables. This study found that descriptive norms positively affected the frequency of travel during the COVID-19 pandemic. Teleworking and e-learning and attitudes toward COVID-19 directly affected activity-travel behavior changes. On the contrary, teleshopping did not contribute to reducing out-of-home activities during the COVID-19 pandemic. Experience of ICT influenced a decline in travel frequency and ride-hailing use. Furthermore, although personal attributes insignificantly influenced activity-travel behavior change, these attributes directly affected ICT use. Meanwhile, people living outside of Java Island had a higher travel frequency during the beginning of COVID-19 pandemic than their counterparts. Based on our findings, this study recommends that the very initial step in an emergency caused by a disaster be to massively socialize or educate people about the risk of the pandemic and to continue with a policy to minimize travel by encouraging teleworking and e-learning. Empowering ICT to support activities from home will beneficially minimize the spread of the pandemic.

PurposeThis paper examines the impact and mechanism of China's digital inclusive finance on rural consumption upgrade. First, the impact of the development of digital inclusive finance on the upgrading of rural household consumption structure is to be theoretically analyzed and empirically tested. Secondly, in terms of heterogeneity analysis, it pays attention to the age heterogeneity of users that digital inclusive finance influencing rural residents' developmental consumption upgrade, which is related to the issue of intergenerational “digital gap”. Thirdly, the mechanism of digital inclusive finance in promoting rural consumption upgrade is to be investigated. Finally, how to promote the role of digital inclusive finance in upgrading the structure of rural consumption to a developmental demand level will be showed.Design/methodology/approachFrom the perspective of the micro-household, this study is conducted by using the instrumental variable (IV) method, with 2SLS model and IV-Tobit model, based on the matched city-level data of Digital Inclusive Financial Index (DIFI) with the Chinese Household Financial Survey (CHFS). “The relief degree of land surface” is an ideal instrumental variable of digital inclusive finance, for including regional altitude difference and terrain factors of regional area, has theoretical influence on the development of digital inclusive finance, and is not affected by other economic variables.FindingsThe conclusions show that the digital inclusive finance plays a significant role in promoting the rural households' developmental consumption, but has no significant effect on the rural households' survival-type consumption and hedonistic consumption. Furthermore, this paper examines the impact and mechanism of China's digital inclusive finance on rural consumption upgrade. First, the impact of the development of digital inclusive finance on the upgrading of rural household consumption structure is to be theoretically analyzed and empirically tested. Secondly, it is discovered that digital inclusive finance is age heterogeneous in promoting the upgrade of consumption structure of rural household, and its effect on the elderly is weaker than that on the young for the intergenerational “digital gap”. Thirdly, these conclusions reveal that the digital inclusive finance does affect the consumption of rural residents through three mechanisms: increasing income and wealth, easing liquidity constraints and facilitating payment methods. Finally, how to promote the role of digital inclusive finance in upgrading the structure of rural consumption to a developmental demand level will be showed.Originality/valueThe current research on the relationship between digital inclusive finance and rural consumption only stays at the level of total rural consumption and has not stressed the structural problems of rural consumption. Can digital inclusive finance promote the upgrade of rural consumption structure? To what level can digital inclusive finance promote the upgrading of rural consumption structure? Therefore, it is of great theoretical value to study the upgrading of rural consumption structure from the micro level. Can the current digital inclusive finance benefit the elderly and help break the vulnerability of the elderly to enjoy finance? In this regard, evidence of heterogeneity remains to be provided.