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Computable general equilibrium (CGE) models are widely used by governmental organizations and academic institutions to analyze the economy-wide effects of events such as climate change, tax policies and immigration. This book provides a practical, how-to guide to CGE models suitable for use at the undergraduate college level. Its introductory level distinguishes it from other available books and articles on CGE models. The book provides intuitive and graphical explanations of the economic theory that underlies a CGE model and includes many examples and hands-on modeling exercises. It may be used in courses on economics principles, microeconomics, macroeconomics, public finance, environmental economics and international trade and finance, because it shows students the role of theory in a realistic model of an economy. The book is also suitable for courses on general equilibrium models and research methods and for professionals interested in learning how to use CGE models.

We advance quantitative-theoretic models of sovereign debt by proving the existence of a downward sloping equilibrium price function for long-term debt and implementing a novel method to accurately compute it. We show that incorporating long-term debt allows the model to match Argentina's average external debt-to-output ratio, average spread on external debt, the standard deviation of spreads, and simultaneously improve upon the model's ability to account for Argentina's other cyclical facts. We also investigated the welfare properties of maturity length and showed that if the possibility of self-fulfilling rollover crises is taken into account, long-term debt is superior to short-term debt.

Stock and Treasury bond comovement, volatilities, and their relations to their price valuations and fundamentals change stochastically over time, in both magnitude and direction. These stochastic changes are explained by a general equilibrium model in which agents learn about composite economic and inflation regimes. We estimate our model using both fundamentals and asset prices and find that inflation news signal either positive or negative future real economic growth depending on the times, thereby affecting the direction of stock-bond comovement. The learning dynamics generate strong nonlinearities between volatilities and price valuations. We find empirical support for numerous predictions of the model.

We study, theoretically and quantitatively, the general equilibrium of an economy in which households smooth consumption by means of both a riskless asset and unsecured loans with the option to default. The default option resembles a bankruptcy filing under Chapter 7 of the U.S. Bankruptcy Code. Competitive financial intermediaries offer a menu of loan sizes and interest rates wherein each loan makes zero profits. We prove the existence of a steady-state equilibrium and characterize the circumstances under which a household defaults on its loans. We show that our model accounts for the main statistics regarding bankruptcy and unsecured credit while matching key macro-economic aggregates, and the earnings and wealth distributions. We use this model to address the implications of a recent policy change that introduces a form of \"means testing\" for households contemplating a Chapter 7 bankruptcy filing. We find that this policy change yields large welfare gains.

Economists are increasingly using computer simulations to understand the implications of their theoretical models and to make policy recommendations. New model solution techniques are required to deal with the increasingly important role of dynamics and uncertainty in macroeconomics. This book consists of articles by leading contributors in the fie.

Fungal diseases are major threats to the most important crops upon which humanity depends. Were there to be a major epidemic that severely reduced yields, its effects would spread throughout the globalized food system. To explore these ramifications, we use a partial equilibrium economic model of the global food system (IMPACT) to study a hypothetical severe but short-lived epidemic that reduces rice yields in the countries affected by 80%. We modelled a succession of epidemic scenarios of increasing severity, starting with the disease in a single country in southeast Asia and ending with the pathogen present in most of eastern Asia. The epidemic and subsequent crop losses led to substantially increased global rice prices. However, as long as global commodity trade was unrestricted and able to respond fast enough, the effects on individual calorie consumption were, to a large part, mitigated. Some of the worse effects were projected to be experienced by poor net-rice importing countries in sub-Saharan Africa, which were not affected directly by the disease but suffered because of higher rice prices. We critique the assumptions of our models and explore political economic pressures to restrict trade at times of crisis. We finish by arguing for the importance of 'stress-testing' the resilience of the global food system to crop disease and other shocks. This article is part of the themed issue 'Tackling emerging fungal threats to animal health, food security and ecosystem resilience'.

The Principle of Large Numbers indicates that macro fluctuations have weak microfoundations; persistent business cycles and interrupted technologies can be better characterized by macro vitality and meso foundations. Economic growth is limited by market extent and ecological constraints. The trade-off between stability and complexity is the foundation of cultural diversity and mixed economies. The new science of complexity sheds light on the sources of economic instability and complexity. This book consists of the major work of Professor Ping Chen, a pioneer in studying economic chaos and economic complexity. They are selected from works completed since 1987, including original research on the evolutionary dynamics of the division of labour, empirical and theoretical studies of economic chaos and stochastic models of collective behavior. Offering a new perspective on market instability and the changing world order, the basic pillars in equilibrium economics are challenged by solid evidence of economic complexity and time asymmetry, including Friedman’s theory of exogenous money and efficient market, the Frisch model of noise-driven cycles, the Lucas model of microfoundations and rational expectations, the Black-Scholes model of option pricing, and the Coase theory of transaction costs. Throughout, a general theory based on complex evolutionary economics is developed, which integrates different insights from Marx, Marshall, Schumpeter, Keynes and offers a new understanding of the evolutionary history of division of labour. This book will be of interest to postgraduates and researchers in Economics, including macroeconomics, financial economics, advanced econometrics and economic methodology. 1. Introduction Part 1 Methodological review: economic complexity, equilibrium illusion, and evolutionary dynamics 2. Equilibrium illusion, economic complexity, and evolutionary foundation of economic analysis (2008) 3. Evolutionary economic dynamics: persistent business cycles, disruptive technology, and the trade-off between stability and complexity (2005) Part 2 Macro vitality: trend-cycle separation, economic chaos and persistent cycles 4. Empirical and Theoretical Evidence of Economic Chaos (1988) 5. Searching for Economic Chaos: A Challenge to Econometric Practice and Nonlinear Tests (1993) 6. A Random Walk or Color Chaos on the Stock Market? - Time-Frequency Analysis of S&P Indexes (1996) 7. Trends, Shocks, Persistent Cycles in Evolving Economy: Business Cycle Measurement in Time-Frequency Representation (1996) Part 3 Micro interaction and population dynamics: learning, communication, and market share competition 8. Origin of Division of Labor and Stochastic Mechanism of Differentiation (1987) 9. Imitation, Learning, and Communication: Central or Polarized Patterns in Collective Actions (1991) 10. Needham's Question and China's Evolution - Cases of Nonequilibrium Social Transition (1990) 11. China's Challenge to Economic Orthodoxy: Asian Reform as an Evolutionary, Self-Organizing Process (1993) Part 4 Equilibrium illusion and meso foundation: perpetual motion machine, representative agents, and organization diversity 12. The Frisch Model of Business Cycles - A Spurious Doctrine, but a Mysterious Success (1999) 13. Microfoundations of Macroeconomic Fluctuations and the Laws of Probability Theory: the Principle of Large Numbers vs. Rational Expectations Arbitrage (2002) 14. Complexity of Transaction Costs and Evolution of Corporate Governance (2007) Part 5 Market instability, natural experiments, and government policy 15. Market Instability and Economic Complexity: Theoretical Lessons from Transition Experiments (2006) 16. From an Efficient to a Viable International Financial Market (2009) Epilogue Ping Chen is a Professor at the National School of Development at Peking University in Bejing, China.

Why did Finland experience, in 1991–1993, the deepest recession observed in an industrialized country since the 1930s? Using a dynamic general equilibrium model with labor frictions, we argue that the collapse of the Soviet-Finnish trade was a major contributor to the contraction. Finland's experience mirrors that of the transition economies of Eastern Europe, which suffered similar deep recessions coupled with institutional changes. By focusing on the Finnish case, we isolate the effects of the Finnish-Soviet trade collapse and shed new light on the sources of recessions in transition economies.

The separation of ownership and control allows controlling shareholders to pursue private benefits. We develop an analytically tractable dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model to study asset pricing and welfare implications of imperfect investor protection. Consistent with empirical evidence, the model predicts that countries with weaker investor protection have more incentives to overinvest, lower Tobin's q, higher return volatility, larger risk premia, and higher interest rate. Calibrating the model to the Korean economy reveals that perfecting investor protection increases the stock market's value by 22%, a gain for which outside shareholders are willing to pay 11% of their capital stock.