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Brave New Canada
Globalization and the shifting tectonic plates of the international system have led to an increasingly competitive world. If Canada hopes to gain advantage from the dramatic developments underway it will have to aggressively adapt its foreign and domestic policies and priorities under the clear direction of the federal government or accept being left behind. In Brave New Canada, Derek Burney and Fen Hampson identify the key trends that are reshaping the world's geopolitics and economics and discuss the challenges Canada confronts with the rise of China and other global centres of power. Their examination of a wide range of themes - including the place of pluralistic democratic values in diplomacy, economics, and trade, the ways that Canada should reset relations with its neighbour to the south, as well as how to manage new global security threats - paints a picture of how Canada can become bold, assertive, and confident and easily adjust to a new global landscape. Arguing that a successful foreign policy cannot be crafted by looking at the world in the rear-view mirror, Brave New Canada offers evidence-based, provocative prescriptions for both the public and private sectors that should stimulate discussion and command widespread attention.
eBook
Canada : what it is, what it can be
\"Canadians have achieved an enviable balance of economic prosperity and civic harmony, but as emerging countries like China, India, and Brazil take their place alongside developed economies, we cannot be complacent. Our high paying jobs, world-class learning and research institutes, excellent health care, and social safety nets exist only to the extent that we are innovative and competitive globally.
Book
A Handbook of Economic Indicators
Every day brings new reports and statistics on the economy, but most of us find it difficult to fit these indicators together to form a coherent picture. This book should help non-economists, whether journalists, managers, students, or investors, to do just that.
Nine chapters explain in straightforward terms the role of households, businesses, governments, and foreign interests in the economy, and how their economic activities are measured. The author clearly describes the 'how' and 'why' of monetary and fiscal policies, and their interactions. One chapter explains how wages and employment are determined.
The last two chapters look at the major Canadian and U.S. economic indicators, such as the consumer price index, housing starts, and employment data. What information do they contain? When are they released? What website can they be found at? How reliable are they? What is their significance? The author helps the reader weigh the information in the indicators in order to anticipate economic developments.
For the businessperson who needs to understand the economy's impact on the 'bottom line', for the student who wants to bridge the gap between theory and the 'real world', for the individual who wants to make better investment decisions, this handbook provides clear, concise guidance.
eBook
Maximum Canada : why 35 million Canadians are not enough
\"Award-winning author and Globe and Mail feature columnist Doug Saunders argues we need 100 million Canadians if we're to outgrow our colonial past and build a safer, greener, more prosperous future. It would shock most Canadians to learn that before 1967, more people have fled this country than immigrated to it. That was no accident. Long after we ceased to be an actual colony, our economic policies and social tendencies kept us poorly connected to the outside world, attracting few of the people and building few of the institutions needed to sustain us. Canada has a history of underpopulation, and its effects are still being felt. Post-1967, a new Canada emerged. The closed, colonial idea of Canada gave way to an open, pluralist and connected vision. At Canada's 150th anniversary, that open vision has become a fragile consensus across major parties and cultures. Yet support for a closed Canada remains influential. In a rare and bold vision for Canada's future, Maximum Canada proposes a most audacious way forward: To avoid global obscurity and create lasting prosperity, to build equality and reconciliation of indigenous and regional divides, and to ensure economic and ecological sustainability, Canada needs to triple its population--and this can be done without a large immigration increase.\"-- Provided by publisher.
Book
The Equilibrium Real Funds Rate: Past, Present, and Future
We examine the behavior, determinants, and implications of the equilibrium level of the real federal funds rate, interpreted as the long run or steady state value of the real funds rate. We draw three main conclusions. First, the uncertainty around the equilibrium rate is large, and its relationship with trend GDP growth much more tenuous than widely believed. Our narrative and econometric analysis using cross-country data and going back to the 19th century supports a wide range of plausible estimates for the current level of the equilibrium rate, from a little over 0 per cent to the pre-crisis consensus of 2 per cent. Second, a bivariate vector error correction model that looks only to U.S. and world real rates well captures the behavior of U.S. real rates. The model treats real rates as cointegrated unit root processes. As of the end of our sample (2014), the model forecasts the real rate in the U.S. will asymptote to an equilibrium value of a little less than half a percent by 2021. Consistent with our first point, however, confidence intervals around this point estimate are huge. Third, the uncertainty around the equilibrium rate argues for more \"inertial\" monetary policy than implied by standard versions of the Taylor rule. Our simulations using the Fed staff's FRB/US model show that explicit recognition of this uncertainty results in a later but steeper normalization path for the funds rate compared with the median \"dot\" in the FOMC's Summary of Economic Projections.
Journal Article
Can Exchange Rates Forecast Commodity Prices?
We show that \"commodity currency\" exchange rates have surprisingly robust power in predicting global commodity prices, both in-sample and out-of-sample, and against a variety of alternative benchmarks. This result is of particular interest to policy makers, given the lack of deep forward markets in many individual commodities, and broad aggregate commodity indices in particular. We also explore the reverse relationship (commodity prices forecasting exchange rates) but find it to be notably less robust. We offer a theoretical resolution, based on the fact that exchange rates are strongly forward-looking, whereas commodity price fluctuations are typically more sensitive to short-term demand imbalances.
Journal Article
Bayesian VARs: Specification Choices and Forecast Accuracy
In this paper we discuss how the point and density forecasting performance of Bayesian vector autoregressions (BVARs) is affected by a number of specification choices. We adopt as a benchmark a common specification in the literature, a BVAR with variables entering in levels and a prior modeled along the lines of Sims and Zha (International Economic Review 1998; 39: 949–968). We then consider optimal choice of the tightness, of the lag length and of both; evaluate the relative merits of modeling in levels or growth rates; compare alternative approaches to h-step-ahead forecasting (direct, iterated and pseudo-iterated); discuss the treatment of the error variance and of cross-variable shrinkage; and assess rolling versus recursive estimation. Finally, we analyze the robustness of the results to the VAR size and composition (using also data for France, Canada and the UK, while the main analysis is for the USA). We obtain a large set of empirical results, but the overall message is that we find very small losses (and sometimes even gains) from the adoption of specification choices that make BVAR modeling quick and easy, in particular for point forecasting. This finding could therefore further enhance the diffusion of the BVAR as an econometric tool for a vast range of applications.
Journal Article
ON THE SOURCES OF UNCERTAINTY IN EXCHANGE RATE PREDICTABILITY
In a unified framework, we examine four sources of uncertainty in exchange rate forecasting models: (i) random variations in the data, (ii) estimation uncertainty, (iii) uncertainty about the degree of time variation in coefficients, and (iv) uncertainty regarding the choice of the predictor. We find that models that embed a high degree of coefficient variability yield forecast improvements at horizons beyond one month. At the one-month horizon, and apart from the standard variance implied by unpredictable fluctuations in the data, the second and third sources of uncertainty listed above are key obstructions to predictive ability. The uncertainty regarding the choice of the predictors is negligible.
Journal Article