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Golden growth : restoring the lustre of the European economic model
Europe's growth will have to be golden in yet another sense. Economic prosperity has brought to Europeans the gift of longer lives, and the continent's population has aged a lot over the last five decades. Over the next five, it will age even more by 2060; almost a third of Europeans will be older than 65 years. Europe will have to rebuild its structures to make fuller use of the energies and experience of its more mature population's people in their golden years. These desires and developments already make the European growth model distinct. Keeping to the discipline of the golden rule would make it distinguished. This report shows how Europeans have organized the six principal economic activities trade, finance, enterprise, innovation, labor, and government in unique ways. But policies in parts of Europe do not recognize the imperatives of demographic maturity and clash with growth's golden rule. Conforming growth across the continent to Europe's ideals and the iron laws of economics will require difficult decisions. This report was written to inform them. Its findings the changes needed to make trade and finance will not be as hard as those to improve enterprise and innovation; these in turn are not as arduous and urgent as the changes needed to restructure labor and government. Its message the remedies are not out of reach for a part of the world that has proven itself both intrepid and inclusive.
eBook
Social Media and Twitter Data Quality for New Social Indicators
Social media represent an excellent opportunity for the construction of timely socio-economic indicators. Despite the many advantages of investigating social media for this purpose, however, there are also relevant statistical and quality issues. Data quality is an especially critical topic. Depending on the characteristics of the social media a researcher is using, the problems that arise related to errors are different. Thus, no one unique quality evaluation framework is suitable. In this paper, the quality of social media data is discussed considering Twitter as the reference social media. An original quality framework for Twitter data is introduced. A reformulation of the traditional quality dimensions is proposed, and the new quality aspects are discussed. The main sources of errors are identified, and examples are provided to show the process of finding evidence of these errors. The conclusion affirms the importance of using a mixed methods approach, which involves incorporating both qualitative and quantitative evaluations to assess data quality. A collection of good practices and proposed indicators for quality evaluation is provided.
Journal Article
The Billion Prices Project: Using Online Prices for Measurement and Research
A large and growing share of retail prices all over the world are posted online on the websites of retailers. This is a massive and (until recently) untapped source of retail price information. Our objective with the Billion Prices Project, created at MIT in 2008, is to experiment with these new sources of information to improve the computation of traditional economic indicators, starting with the Consumer Price Index. We also seek to understand whether online prices have distinct dynamics, their advantages and disadvantages, and whether they can serve as reliable source of information for economic research. The word “billion” in Billion Prices Project was simply meant to express our desire to collect a massive amount of prices, though we in fact reached that number of observations in less than two years. By 2010, we were collecting 5 million prices every day from over 300 retailers in 50 countries. We describe the methodology used to compute online price indexes and show how they co-move with consumer price indexes in most countries. We also use our price data to study price stickiness, and to investigate the “law of one price” in international economics. Finally we describe how the Billion Prices Project data are publicly shared and discuss why data collection is an important endeavor that macro- and international economists should pursue more often.
Journal Article
Economic Inequality, Immigrants and Selective Solidarity: From Perceived Lack of Opportunity to In-group Favoritism
How does economic inequality affect support for redistribution to native citizens and immigrants? While prior studies have examined the separate effects of inequality and immigration on redistribution preferences, the interaction between inequality and communal identity has been largely overlooked. This article explains that inequality triggers selective solidarity. Individuals exposed to inequality become more supportive of redistribution – but only if the redistribution benefits native-born citizens. Inequality therefore reinforces the already popular opinion that native citizens deserve welfare priority and widens the gap between support for natives and support for immigrants. This study first provides cross-national evidence with survey data linked to contextual socio-economic indicators from advanced industrialized countries. To evaluate causally identified effects, it then presents the results of a survey experiment administered to a nationally representative sample of Italian citizens. The findings imply that economic inequality can increase support for populist radical right parties that advocate discrimination in access to welfare services based on native citizenship.
Journal Article
For good measure : an agenda for moving beyond GDP
\"A consensus has emerged among key experts that our conventional economic measures are out of sync with how most people experience their lives. GDP, they argue, is a poor and outmoded measure of our well-being. The global movement to advance beyond GDP has attracted some of the world's leading economists, statisticians, and social thinkers who have worked collectively to articulate new approaches to measuring economic well-being and social progress. In the decade since the 2008 economic crisis, these experts have come together to create a new \"dashboard\" of indicators of what actually makes for better lives. In the first book of its kind, leading economists from around the world-including Thomas Piketty, Emmanuel Saez, Jacob Hacker, Franًcois Bourguignon, Alan Krueger, and Joseph E. Stiglitz-describe a range of fascinating metrics-from economic insecurity and environmental sustainability to inequality of opportunity and levels of trust and resilience-that can at least supplement the simplistic measure of gross domestic product, providing a far more nuanced and accurate account of societal health and well-being. This groundbreaking volume is sure to provide a major source of ideas and inspiration for one of the most important intellectual movements of our time\"-- Provided by publisher.
Book
DISAGREEMENT AMONG FORECASTERS IN G7 COUNTRIES
We investigate determinants of disagreement—cross-sectional dispersion of individual forecasts—about key economic indicators. Disagreement about economic activity, in particular about GDP growth, has a distinct dynamic from disagreement about prices: inflation and interest rates. Disagreement about GDP growth intensifies strongly during recessions. Disagreement about prices rises with their level, declines under independent central banks, and both its level and its sensitivity to macroeconomic variables are larger in countries where central banks became independent only around the mid-1990s. Our findings suggest that credible monetary policy contributes to anchoring of expectations about inflation and interest rates. Disagreement for both groups of indicators increases with uncertainty about the actual series.
Journal Article