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Monetary regimes and inflation : history, economic and political relationships
\"Exploring the characteristics of inflations and comparing historical cases from Roman times up to the modern day, this book provides an in depth discussion of the subject. It analyses the high and moderate inflations caused by the inflationary bias of poltiical systems and economic relationships, as well as the importance of different monetary regimes in containing them. The differences for the possible size of inflations among monetary regimes like metallic currencies, the gold standard and fiat paper money are discussed. It is shown that huge budget deficits of government have been responsible for all hyperinflations. This revised second edition debates whether a growth of the money supply exceeding that of real Gross Domestic Production is a necessary or sufficient reason for inflation and also includes a new concluding chapter, which explores the long-term tendencies to create, maintain and abolish inflation-stable monetary regimes. Moreover, the conditions for long-term inflation-stable monetary regimes in history are explored. By surveying thirty hyperinflations, Peter Bernholz demonstrates that certain economic traits have been stable characteristics of inflations over the centuries, and illustrates their causes. He also examines the consequences of high inflations for unemployment, the distortions between relative prices and the political conditions that allow a return to stable monetary regimes after high inflations, given the inflationary tendencies of political systems. This book will appeal to a wide-ranging audience, including students, economists, historians, political scientists and sociologists looking to imrpove their knowledge of monetary regimes and inflation. Bankers, businessmen and politicians attempting to solve the problems caused for them by inflation, will also find this to be a useful read\"--Back cover.
Book
Taylor’s rule, political cycle, and Latin America—An analysis of time series in search of responsibility for monetary stabilization
The decades before 1990 were dramatic for Latin American economies. However, from 1990 onwards, a set of policies followed by the various states in the region acheived economic stabilization with real income recovery. The attribution of this success has been disputed by politicians, economists and officials from international economic support institutions. This work will analyze the responsibility for this success in 4 economies in the region (Brazil, Colombia, Mexico and Peru). Through the combined analysis of ARDL, Markov states and structural breaks, we highlight different sources of responsibility in different periods. Additionally, detailing the states of each regime, we verify the duration of the regimes related to inflation rates and to interest rates in the region. We identify specific governments as associated with moments of economic stabilization in the region, so the hypothesis of the political cycle cannot be rejected for the set of results achieved. As policy implication, we claim that Taylor rules are endogenous to Political Budget Cycles and so stabilization plans are restricted to political tenures.
Journal Article
Technological progress, globalization and low-inflation: Evidence from the United States
Since the late 1990s, particularly since the global financial crisis, the core inflation of main developed economies' has been persistently below target. The factors hindering the achievement of inflation targets are nothing more than commodity price, oil supply, weakness of aggregate demand, and various other factors. In addition, technology and globalization have also played a significant role. This paper uses an extended hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) model to quantify the contribution of technology and globalization variables to inflation in the United States (U.S.). The analysis suggests that technology and globalization well explain the low inflation dynamics in the U.S., as the impact of globalization on domestic inflation has been weakening over the past 20 years or so, while the impact of technology on inflation has been increasing. At present, technology exerts a greater role than globalization on low-inflation in the U.S.. This raises a different perspective for understanding the phenomenon of low inflation in the U.S. and other regions.
Journal Article
Medicare payment trends compared to inflation for anesthesia services
Identify changes and trends in the real value of Medicare payments for anesthesia services between 2000 and 2020 and how it may affect practices.
Retrospective analysis.
We utilized the Physician/Supplier Procedure Summary (PSPS) datasets of Medicare Part B claims to identify high volume anesthesia services in 2020 with 20 years of data. The Consumer Price Index was used as a measure of inflation to adjust prices.
The PSPS datasets contain summaries of all annual Medicare Part B claims and payment amounts by carrier and locality.
Patients receiving anesthesia services.
For each service, identified by Current Procedural Terminology (CPT) codes, we trended the average Medicare payment per procedure from 2000 to 2020 and calculated year to year changes and compound annual growth rate (CAGR). We also evaluated base and time units for each CPT code and the national Medicare anesthesia conversion factor (CF) for the same years.
The average Medicare payment in the study sample increased 20.1% from 2000 to 2020. After adjusting for inflation, the average Medicare payment per anesthesia service decreased by 20.8% over that period. The Medicare anesthesia CF increased 24.9% in the same period, and after adjusting for inflation, the real value of the CF decreased 16.9%. Average CAGR across the 20 anesthesia services was 0.88%, compared to the average annual inflation at 2.06%.
Average Medicare payment for common anesthesia services after adjusting for inflation have decreased from 2000 to 2020, consistent with findings in other physician specialties. Understanding these trends is important for practice viability and suggests significant financial implications for anesthesia practices and hospitals if the trend were to continue.
•Medicare anesthesia payments decreased 20.8% between 2000 and 2020 after adjusting for inflation.•Relative to commercial payments, Medicare anesthesia payments are lower than for other services.•Medicare continues to make payment cuts to all physician services in recent years.•Anesthesia practices' economic jeopardy may undermine surgical care.
Journal Article
Who sells to whom in the suburbs? Home price inflation and the dynamics of sellers and buyers in the metropolitan region of Paris, 1996–2012
Price inflation has outbalanced the income of residents and buyers in major post-industrial city-regions, and real estate has become an important driver of these inequalities. In a context of a resilient inflation of home values during the last two decades in the greater Paris Region, it is critical to examine housing price dynamics to get a better understanding of socioeconomic segregation. This paper aims at presenting spatial analysis of the dynamics of segregation pertaining to inflation, analyzing price and sellers and buyers data. Using interpolation techniques and multivariate analysis, the paper presents a spatial analysis of property-level data from the Paris Chamber of Notaries (1996-2012) in a GIS (159,000 transactions in suburban areas, single family homes only). Multivariate analysis capture price change and local trajectories of occupational status, i.e. changes in balance between inward and outward flows of sellers and buyers. We adopt a method that fits the fragmented spatial patterns of suburbanization. To do so, we remove the spatial bias by means of a regular 1-km spatial grid, interpolating the variables within it, using a time-distance matrix. The main results are threefold. We document the spatial patterns of professionalization (a rise of executives, intermediate occupation and employees) to describe the main trends of inward mobility in property ownership in suburbs, offsetting the outward mobility of retired persons. Second, neighborhood trajectories are related the diverging patterns of appreciation, between local contexts of accumulation with a growth of residential prices, and suburbs with declining trends. The maturity of suburbanization yields a diversified structure of segregation between the social groups, that do not simply oppose executives vs. blue collar suburbs. A follow-up research agenda is finally outlined.
Journal Article
Expectations of Inflation: The Role of Demographic Variables, Expectation Formation, and Financial Literacy
When financial decisions have consequences beyond the immediate future, individuals' economic success may depend on their ability to forecast the rate of inflation. Higher inflation expectations have been reported by individuals who are female, poorer, single and less educated. Our results suggest that these demographic differences in inflation expectations may be partially explained by variations in expectation formation and financial literacy. Specifically, higher inflation expectations were reported by individuals who focused more on how to cover their future expenses and on prices they pay (rather than on the US inflation rate) and by individuals with lower financial literacy.
Journal Article