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Learning and Expectations in Macroeconomics
A crucial challenge for economists is figuring out how people interpret the world and form expectations that will likely influence their economic activity. Inflation, asset prices, exchange rates, investment, and consumption are just some of the economic variables that are largely explained by expectations. Here George Evans and Seppo Honkapohja bring new explanatory power to a variety of expectation formation models by focusing on the learning factor. Whereas the rational expectations paradigm offers the prevailing method to determining expectations, it assumes very theoretical knowledge on the part of economic actors. Evans and Honkapohja contribute to a growing body of research positing that households and firms learn by making forecasts using observed data, updating their forecast rules over time in response to errors. This book is the first systematic development of the new statistical learning approach.
Depending on the particular economic structure, the economy may converge to a standard rational-expectations or a \"rational bubble\" solution, or exhibit persistent learning dynamics. The learning approach also provides tools to assess the importance of new models with expectational indeterminacy, in which expectations are an independent cause of macroeconomic fluctuations. Moreover, learning dynamics provide a theory for the evolution of expectations and selection between alternative equilibria, with implications for business cycles, asset price volatility, and policy. This book provides an authoritative treatment of this emerging field, developing the analytical techniques in detail and using them to synthesize and extend existing research.
eBook
Managerial statistics
This book emphasizes problem solving and teaches students how to systematically solve business problems. Its comprehensive coverage and integrated computer examples and instructions provides enough material for a two-semester course.
Book
Applied statistics for business and economics
Designed for a one-semester course, this text offers students in business and the social sciences an effective introduction to some of the most basic and powerful techniques available for understanding their world. Numerous interesting and important examples reflect real-life situations and calculations can be performed using any standard spreadsheet package. To help with the examples, the author offers both actual and hypothetical databases on his website http://iwu.edu/~bleekley After reading the book, students will be able to summarize data in insightful ways using charts, graphs, and summary statistics as well as make inferences from samples, especially about relationships.
eBook
Introductory Regression Analysis
Regression analysis is arguably the single most powerful and widely applicable tool in any effective examination of common business issues. Every day, decision-makers face problems that require constructive actions with significant consequences, and regression procedures can prove a meaningful and valuable asset in the decision-making process. This text is designed to help students achieve a full understanding of regression and the many ways it can be used.
Taking into consideration current statistical technology, Introductory Regression Analysis focuses on the use and interpretation of software, while also demonstrating the logic, reasoning, and calculations that lie behind any statistical analysis. Furthermore, the text emphasizes the application of regression tools to real-life business concerns. This multilayered, yet pragmatic approach fully equips students to derive the benefit and meaning of a regression analysis.
This text is designed to serve in a second undergraduate course in statistics, focusing on regression and its component features. The material presented in this text will build from a foundation of the principles of data analysis. Although previous exposure to statistical concepts would prove helpful, all the material needed for an examination of regression analysis is presented here in a clear and complete form.
eBook
Meta-Regression Analysis in Economics and Business
The purpose of this book is to introduce novice researchers to the tools of meta-analysis and meta-regression analysis and to summarize the state of the art for existing practitioners. Meta-regression analysis addresses the rising \"Tower of Babel\" that current economics and business research has become. Meta-analysis is the statistical analysis of previously published, or reported, research findings on a given hypothesis, empirical effect, phenomenon, or policy intervention. It is a systematic review of all the relevant scientific knowledge on a specific subject and is an essential part of the evidence-based practice movement in medicine, education and the social sciences. However, research in economics and business is often fundamentally different from what is found in the sciences and thereby requires different methods for its synthesis-meta-regression analysis. This book develops, summarizes, and applies these meta-analytic methods.
eBook
Learning and expectations in macroeconomics
A crucial challenge for economists is figuring out how people interpret the world and form expectations that will likely influence their economic activity. Inflation, asset prices, exchange rates, investment, and consumption are just some of the economic variables that are largely explained by expectations. Here George Evans and Seppo Honkapohja bring new explanatory power to a variety of expectation formation models by focusing on the learning factor. Whereas the rational expectations paradigm offers the prevailing method to determining expectations, it assumes very theoretical knowledge on the part of economic actors. Evans and Honkapohja contribute to a growing body of research positing that households and firms learn by making forecasts using observed data, updating their forecast rules over time in response to errors. This book is the first systematic development of the new statistical learning approach.
eBook