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Self-learning type-2 fuzzy systems with adaptive rule reduction for time series forecasting
In rapidly changing scenarios, uncertainty and chaotic oscillations often obstruct time series prediction. However, Type-1 fuzzy systems face challenges in handling high uncertainty levels, therefore, Type-2 fuzzy systems become a better solution. Nonetheless, the complexity of Type-2 fuzzy models can produce overwhelming rules, compromising interpretability and computational efficiency. We present a Self-Learning Type-2 Fuzzy System with adaptive rule reduction that optimizes the rule base as forecast accuracy begins to deteriorate after adaptation. Our model combines participatory learning (PL) and Kernel Recursive Least Squares (KRLS) for online learning, an Adaptive reduced rule strategy to eliminate repeating rules and gain computational efficiency. Our approach incorporates a compatibility measure rooted in Type-2 fuzzy sets, paving the way for an improved consideration of uncertainty. Complex datasets, including Mackey-Glass chaotic time series and Taiwan Capitalization Weighted Stock Index (TAIEX), are used to evaluate the model, which demonstrates its superior forecasting performance compared to state-of-the-art models. Experiments show that our solution, through the development of a few rules, obtains lower error measures maintaining a small rule base, thus proving to be a scalable approach amenable to on-line deployment in fast paced environments such as those appearing in the financial markets, industrial processes and others that demand highly accurate time series forecasts in the presence of uncertainty.
Journal Article
Rip Current Survival Principles: Towards Consistency
Bradstreet, A.J.; Brander, R.W.; McCarroll, J.R.; Brighton, B.; Dominey, H.D.; Drozdzewski, D.; Sherker, S.; Turner, I.; Roberts, A., and MacMahan, J., 2014. Rip current survival principles: Towards consistency. Advances in applied rip current research over the past 10 years have dramatically increased our collective understanding of the hazard posed to communities by rip currents. Repeated drifter, dye, swimmer, in situ instrumentation, and model experimentation has demonstrated the highly variable nature of rip currents, which has significant implications for long standing survival strategies. Analysis of prevalent rip current survival advice revealed that under variable rip current conditions, the advice may not prove effective in-situ, resulting in individual adopting alternative behaviours, which may or may not have been endorsed or promoted by safety authorities. This paper discusses evidence supporting key principles prominent in the discourse between public safety practitioners and rip current researchers, and presents how these principles relate to each other in practice. The principles are set into two categories: avoidance and survival. They have been developed to support consistent engagement, education and communication strategies for community resilience and further reduce the burden of rip current related drowning globally.
Journal Article